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Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: fogman] #364017
03/16/11 00:31
03/16/11 00:31
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 4,134
Netherlands
Joozey Offline
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Joozey  Offline
Expert

Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 4,134
Netherlands
The risks of tsjernobyl, would an organisation like CERN judge such a reactor, would be much higher than the risk that the Sovjet Union judged.
A risk of 0.000001% judged by a "science and welfare"-driven party is a neglectible risk. For if not, why haven't we started creating an anti-meteorite defense system yet? Granted such a risk is not manmade, still the answer would be: too costly compared to the neglectible risk.

But I do wonder how the reactor meltdown risk was judged in Japan. Did they anticipate a future earthquake? Did they took their chances by building one regardless, because they needed it for their progress?

Errors happen, but I am confident that nuclear reactor designs are now made in such a way that thermal meltdowns, like the one that almost happened in tsjernobyl, are simply not possible anymore. We are experienced enough to fully master the science; both on level of organisation/management and scientific knowledge. There's not a soul wandering through CERN that doesn't know what everything does. Unlike tsjernobyl. I believe we have grown up in that.

However, I can cope with the idea that, unless the whole world has grown up, we must not start building nuclear reactors everywhere. While we may have them under control, a terrorist attack could not be ruled out.

Last edited by Joozey; 03/16/11 00:45.

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Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: Joozey] #364026
03/16/11 01:05
03/16/11 01:05
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 7,439
Red Dwarf
Michael_Schwarz Offline
Senior Expert
Michael_Schwarz  Offline
Senior Expert

Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 7,439
Red Dwarf
any terrorist can strap a dirty bomb under a car and drive into a highly populated area. Should we now ban cars because they run the risk of being used to set off a radiation bomb?


"Sometimes JCL reminds me of Notch, but more competent" ~ Kiyaku
Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: Michael_Schwarz] #364028
03/16/11 01:11
03/16/11 01:11
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3,751
Canada
WretchedSid Offline
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WretchedSid  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3,751
Canada
Oh boy, no way. Think about Opel, we saved them for no reason if we would ban cars! Better ban terrorist!


Shitlord by trade and passion. Graphics programmer at Laminar Research.
I write blog posts at feresignum.com
Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: Michael_Schwarz] #364030
03/16/11 01:26
03/16/11 01:26
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 7,441
ventilator Offline OP
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ventilator  Offline OP
Senior Expert

Joined: May 2002
Posts: 7,441
the risk isn't 0.000001%. it's more like 1% if you take into account all accidents and the total number of plants. ok, newer plants are safer but at the moment the risk still is 1% with all the old crappy ones around. russia even still runs many chernobyl type plants.

a dirty bomb doesn't consist of tons of material. such comparisons are silly.

@joozey: those commercial "space" flights use rockets too. they just don't start from the ground but from an airplane. and they basically just are longer parabola flights. they aren't able to reach an orbit and they probably won't anytime soon since if it would be that easy they would have gone into space that way much sooner. i guess this still will take a lot of research in scramjets and such stuff.

i also remember how my mother pulled me out of my sand pit and put me under the shower for half an hour as a kid.

edit:
who will build the sarcophargus in japan if worst comes to worst? this isn't the inhuman ussr where 100000s of soldiers can be forced to do it.

Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: ventilator] #364032
03/16/11 01:42
03/16/11 01:42
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,506
Germany
F
fogman Offline
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fogman  Offline
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F

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,506
Germany
What I want to say was:
Every risk is too high when it comes to nuclear power.
Because the impact is irretrievable.

From wikipedia:
Quote:
Circumstances like TMI, Chernobyl or Fukushima, that exceed the postulated scenarios, are called "beyond design basis accident" or "non-design-basis accident."


You can be sure that japan has done a good job here. I mean take a look at all the other power plants that survived the earthquake.

But itīs not enough and you can actually never be sure that itīs enough.
You canīt design accidents. Accidents get designed by itself. wink


no science involved
Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: fogman] #364127
03/16/11 17:17
03/16/11 17:17
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 7,441
ventilator Offline OP
Senior Expert
ventilator  Offline OP
Senior Expert

Joined: May 2002
Posts: 7,441
http://www.infowars.com/alert-fukushima-coverup-40-years-of-spent-nuclear-rods-blown-sky-high/

EU-Energiekommissar warnt vor katastrophalen Ereignissen "in den kommenden Stunden"

what do you think this means? frown

Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: ventilator] #364143
03/16/11 18:01
03/16/11 18:01
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 4,206
Innsbruck, Austria
sPlKe Offline
Expert
sPlKe  Offline
Expert

Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 4,206
Innsbruck, Austria
it means that panic sells...
nothings gona happen...

Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: sPlKe] #364163
03/16/11 18:47
03/16/11 18:47
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,506
Germany
F
fogman Offline
Expert
fogman  Offline
Expert
F

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,506
Germany
Even the experts donīt seem to know what will happen.
Finally they seem to accept murphy.

I think the truth lies inbetween "OMG the earth is kaput" and "nothings gona happen".

sPIKe, you know the consequences of chernobyl.
Take this and add high density of population, more material, up to six reactors.
Then add common sense and unpredictable reactor behaviour.
The chances are big that there will be a massive contamination of a lot of people.


Sorry, Iīve got some relatives by marriage in japan.
They have survived the tsunami and the earthquakes.
And now they are jumping out from the frying pan into the fire. frown


no science involved
Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: fogman] #364172
03/16/11 18:56
03/16/11 18:56
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 9,859
F
FBL Offline
Senior Expert
FBL  Offline
Senior Expert
F

Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 9,859
The latest photos look by far more worrying than any short note or article concerning the disaster was so far...

I don't how much is true of the article linked by Ventilator... but if this picture shows the truth...

... things are pretty much fucked up.

Now look at the Fukushima plant again...



Last edited by Firoball; 03/16/11 18:57.
Re: nuclear meltdown in japan [Re: FBL] #364176
03/16/11 19:10
03/16/11 19:10
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2,154
Damocles_ Offline
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Damocles_  Offline
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Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2,154



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