EDIT Nov 19th: I've added USDCHF now and also fixed a glitch in the CalculateMargin() function. I'll be working next on testing this with v1.20 beta.

(it seems the system will no longer let me edit a post once there is a reply... so I'll followup here with the latest info):

I've gone back and reprocessed AUDUSD as well now. I did this after noticing that the OptimalF value assigned to this asset was .000 (essentially meaning it would never trade that asset).

I think it is extremely important to get the parameter ranges and optimal start values correct (Step 1c). Otherwise, it just goes downhill from there.

After carefully reprocessing AUDUSD, I'm seeing much better results now. All assets are assigned a positive OptimalF value, and the strategy's overall health looks improved. I've also made several improvements to the spreadsheet which is attached here.

(I still have 2 more assets to process, and I may go back and make sure the initial assets beyond EURUSD were processed correctly as well. Consistent design process is critical.)

Quote:
Walk-Forward Test: dt-demo5 portfolio 2008..2013
Read dt-demo5.fac dt-demo5_1.par dt-demo5_2.par dt-demo5_3.par dt-demo5_4.par
Profit 6544$ MI 161$ DD 544$ Capital 1015$
Trades 1638 Win 30% Avg +393.0p Bars 146
CAGR 81% PF 1.39 SR 1.73 UI 4.1% Error 20%
Time 00:03:49


Code:
function fridayClose(int fridayclose)
{
	//allows Friday trading up until NYSE 3pm; close trades and don't allow after this
	if(fridayclose && dow() == FRIDAY && lhour(ET) >= 15) 
		{
			exitLong("*");
			exitShort("*");
			return 1; //condition met; indicate no further trades
		}
	return 0; //condition not met; safe to take new trades
}

function hourOpen(int hourblockstart, int hourblockend)
{
	//blocks new open trades between selected hours
	//uses NYSE time, including DST
	if ( (lhour(ET) >= hourblockstart) && (lhour(ET) < hourblockend) )
		return 0; //between blocked hours, do not allow trade opens
	else
		return 1; //no conditions met, allow trades by default
}

function todayOpenCombo(var dayopencombo)
{
	//allows optimizer to specify the best combo of days for opens
	//bit position 0 = Monday
	//bit position 1 = Tuesday
	//bit position 2 = Wednesday
	//bit position 3 = Thursday
	//bit position 4 = Friday
	//bit position 5 = Sunday
	//given a combination #, the function will return whether
	//current dow() is in the combination

	int dayopencombobits = dayopencombo+.5; //truncate to rounded int
	int today = dow() - 1; //Mon is 0
	if (today == 6) today = 5; //bump Sun to 5 (no Sat, keep binary range 0-63)

	if (dayopencombobits & (1 << today)) return 1; //current dow() is in the combo
		else return 0; //current dow() not in combo, do not allow trade opens
}

function todayCloseCombo(var dayclosecombo)
{
	//allows optimizer to specify the best combo of days to close by NYSE 4pm
	//bit position 0 = Monday
	//bit position 1 = Tuesday
	//bit position 2 = Wednesday
	//bit position 3 = Thursday
	//bit position 4 = Friday
	//bit position 5 = Sunday
	//given a combination #, the function will determine if we are beyond
	//a combo close time, close all trades if necessary, and return 1
	//if no further trades allowed today

	int dayclosecombobits = dayclosecombo+.5; //truncate to rounded int
	int today = dow() - 1; //Mon is 0
	if (today == 6) today = 5; //bump Sun to 5 (no Sat, keep binary range 0-63)

	if ((dayclosecombobits & (1 << today)) && lhour(ET) >= 16) 
	{
		exitLong("*");
		exitShort("*");
		return 1; //current dow() is in the combo; indicate no further trades
	}
	else return 0; //current dow() not in combo, safe to take new trades
}

function marketOpenCombo(var marketopencombo)
{
	//allows optimizer to specify best markets to initiate trades
	//bit position 0 = New York 8am-5pm Eastern
	//bit position 1 = Sydney 5pm-2am Eastern
	//bit position 2 = Tokyo 7pm-4am Eastern
	//bit position 3 = London 3am-12pm Eastern
	//given a combination #, the function will determine if current time is within
	//a market part of the combination (returns 1 to allow trading if true)
	
	int marketcombobits = marketopencombo+.5; //truncate to rounded int
	if ( (lhour(ET) >=8) && (lhour(ET) <17) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 0)) ) return 1; //inside New York
	if ( (lhour(ET) >=17) || (lhour(ET) <2) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 1)) ) return 1; //inside Sydney
	if ( (lhour(ET) >=19) || (lhour(ET) <4) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 2)) ) return 1; //inside Tokyo
	if ( (lhour(ET) >=3) && (lhour(ET) <12) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 3)) ) return 1; //inside London
	return 0; //default - current market not in combination, don't allow trade opens
}

function checkTradesPerCycle()
{
	//require minimum 30 trades per WFO cycle or stop training
	static int LastWFOCycle = 0, LastNumTrades = 0;
	if(Train && (WFOCycle != LastWFOCycle) )
	{
		if(LastNumTrades > 0 and LastNumTrades < 30)
		{
			char tradecount[100];
			sprintf(tradecount,"Not enough trades per cycle: %d",LastNumTrades);
			quit(tradecount);
		}
		LastWFOCycle = WFOCycle;
	}
	LastNumTrades = NumWinTotal+NumLossTotal;
}

function calculateMargin(int direction)
{
	//calculate risk Margin based on OptimalF and trade direction
	Capital = 1000; //simulated account balance
	var riskCapital = 325; //basis to trade with

	if (direction && OptimalF>.001) //long trade, historically profitable
		{
		Lots = 1; //allow live trading
		return OptimalFLong * riskCapital;
		}
	else if (!direction && OptimalF>.001) //short trade, historically profitable
		{
		Lots = 1; //allow live trading
		return OptimalFShort * riskCapital;
		}
	else
		Lots = -1; //non-historically profitable = phantom live trades only

	return 0; //no Margin allocated for non-historically profitable
}

function getOpt(int param)
{
	switch (Asset)
	{
		case "EURUSD":
			switch (param)
			{
				case 1: return optimize(75,65,85,1,0); //TimeCycle
				case 2: return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0); //TimeFactor
				case 3: return optimize(1.99,1,15,0.5,-3); //Stop
				case 4: return optimize(5,3,13,0.5); //Trail
				case 5: return 1; //maxtrades
				case 6: return 0; //reversedir: default 0=normal trade direction
				case 7: return 1; //fridayclose: enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
				case 8: return 0; //hourblockstart: block trade opens beginning at NY hour
				case 9: return 0; //hourblockend: block trade opens ending at NY hour
				case 10: return 63; //optimize(57,1,63,1); //dayopencombo: combo of days to open; 63=every day
				case 11: return 0; //optimize(20,1,63,1); //dayclosecombo: combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
				case 12: return 15; //optimize(13,1,15,1); //marketopencombo: combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market
				case 13: return 18; //limit # of loss streaks; 0=no limit
				case 14: return 0; //emodes: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
				case 15: return 0; //Hedge mode: 0=none, 4=virtual
			}
		case "NZDJPY":
			switch (param)
			{
				case 1: return optimize(76,65,85,1,0); //TimeCycle
				case 2: return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0); //TimeFactor
				case 3: return optimize(2.01,1,9,0.5,-3); //Stop
				case 4: return optimize(11,8,14,0.5); //Trail
				case 5: return 1; //maxtrades
				case 6: return 0; //reversedir: default 0=normal trade direction
				case 7: return 0; //fridayclose: enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
				case 8: return 0; //hourblockstart: block trade opens beginning at NY hour
				case 9: return 0; //hourblockend: block trade opens ending at NY hour
				case 10: return optimize(13,1,63,1); //dayopencombo: combo of days to open; 63=every day
				case 11: return 0; //optimize(34,1,63,1); //dayclosecombo: combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
				case 12: return 15; //optimize(9,1,15,1); //marketopencombo: combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market
				case 13: return 19; //limit # of loss streaks; 0=no limit
				case 14: return 0; //emodes: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
				case 15: return 0; //Hedge mode: 0=none, 4=virtual
			}
		case "AUDUSD":
			switch (param)
			{
				case 1: return optimize(54,44,64,1,0); //TimeCycle
				case 2: return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0); //TimeFactor
				case 3: return optimize(3,0.5,5.5,0.5,-2); //Stop
				case 4: return optimize(8.5,3,13,0.5); //Trail
				case 5: return 1; //maxtrades
				case 6: return 0; //reversedir: default 0=normal trade direction
				case 7: return 0; //fridayclose: enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
				case 8: return 0; //hourblockstart: block trade opens beginning at NY hour
				case 9: return 0; //hourblockend: block trade opens ending at NY hour
				case 10: return 63; //optimize(42,1,63,1); //dayopencombo: combo of days to open; 63=every day
				case 11: return 0; //optimize(5,1,63,1); //dayclosecombo: combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
				case 12: return optimize(9.01,1,15,1); //marketopencombo: combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market
				case 13: return 24; //limit # of loss streaks; 0=no limit
				case 14: return 0; //emodes: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
				case 15: return 0; //Hedge mode: 0=none, 4=virtual
			}
		case "AUDCHF":
			switch (param)
			{
				case 1: return optimize(59,49,69,1,0); //TimeCycle
				case 2: return optimize(2.4,2,5,0.2,0); //TimeFactor
				case 3: return optimize(4.01,1,15,0.5,-2); //Stop
				case 4: return optimize(7.5,3,13,0.5); //Trail
				case 5: return 1; //maxtrades
				case 6: return 0; //reversedir: default 0=normal trade direction
				case 7: return 0; //fridayclose: enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
				case 8: return 0; //hourblockstart: block trade opens beginning at NY hour
				case 9: return 0; //hourblockend: block trade opens ending at NY hour
				case 10: return 63; //optimize(42,1,63,1); //dayopencombo: combo of days to open; 63=every day
				case 11: return 0; //optimize(4,1,63,1); //dayclosecombo: combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
				case 12: return optimize(13,1,15,1); //marketopencombo: combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market
				case 13: return 13; //limit # of loss streaks; 0=no limit
				case 14: return 1; //emodes: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
				case 15: return 0; //Hedge mode: 0=none, 4=virtual
			}
		case "AUDJPY":
			switch (param)
			{
				case 1: return optimize(68,58,78,1,0); //TimeCycle
				case 2: return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0); //TimeFactor
				case 3: return optimize(6.01,3,10,0.5,-2); //Stop
				case 4: return optimize(7,3,10,0.5); //Trail
				case 5: return 1; //maxtrades
				case 6: return 0; //reversedir: default 0=normal trade direction
				case 7: return 0; //fridayclose: enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
				case 8: return 0; //hourblockstart: block trade opens beginning at NY hour
				case 9: return 0; //hourblockend: block trade opens ending at NY hour
				case 10: return optimize(27,1,63,1); //dayopencombo: combo of days to open; 63=every day
				case 11: return 0; //optimize(33,1,63,1); //dayclosecombo: combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
				case 12: return optimize(13,1,15,1); //marketopencombo: combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market
				case 13: return 10; //limit # of loss streaks; 0=no limit
				case 14: return 0; //emodes: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
				case 15: return 0; //Hedge mode: 0=none, 4=virtual
			}
		case "USDCHF":
			switch (param)
			{
				case 1: return optimize(104,85,115,1,0); //TimeCycle
				case 2: return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0); //TimeFactor
				case 3: return optimize(8.5,6,12,0.5); //Stop
				case 4: return optimize(10.5,7.5,13,0.5); //Trail
				case 5: return 1; //maxtrades
				case 6: return 0; //reversedir: default 0=normal trade direction
				case 7: return 0; //fridayclose: enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
				case 8: return 0; //hourblockstart: block trade opens beginning at NY hour
				case 9: return 0; //hourblockend: block trade opens ending at NY hour
				case 10: return optimize(58,1,63,1); //dayopencombo: combo of days to open; 63=every day
				case 11: return 0; //optimize(33,1,63,1); //dayclosecombo: combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
				case 12: return optimize(13,1,15,1); //marketopencombo: combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market
				case 13: return 14;//limit # of loss streaks; 0=no limit
				case 14: return 4; //emodes: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
				case 15: return 0; //Hedge mode: 0=none, 4=virtual
			}
	}
}

function checkEquity()
{
	int emode = getOpt(14);
	if (!emode) return; //no equity-curve trading

	//emode 1 = standard: sets phantom/normal mode only (via Lots)
	//emode 2 = switch hitter: always in market (Lots=1), fades direction (via dir)
	//emode 3 = reward success with weighting: increase trades based on degree of improvement
	//emode 4 = mean reversion: trade when equity curve falls (Lots=1), sit out when it rises (Lots=-1)
	vars EquityCurve = series(EquityLong+EquityShort); //includes all phantom equity
	var dir; //indicates normal trade direction (dir=1) or reverse (dir=-1)

	//narrower curves
	//var slow = 50;
	//var fast = 10;

	//wider curves
	//var slow = 100;
	//var fast = 10;

	//mega-wide curves
	var slow = 200;
	var fast = 10;

	//uber-wide curves
	//var slow = 300;
	//var fast = 10;

	//optimized curves
	//var slow = optimize(50,50,300,12);
	//var fast = 10;

	vars EquityLP = series(LowPass(EquityCurve,fast));
	var EquityLPfalling = LowPass(EquityLP,slow);
	var EquityLPrisingBigger = LowPass(EquityLP,slow*3.2);
	var EquityLPrisingBig = LowPass(EquityLP,slow*1.5);
	//plot("EquityLPslow",LowPass(EquityLP,slow),1,BLUE);
	//plot("EquityLPfast",LowPass(EquityLP,fast),0,GREEN);
	
	if(EquityLP[0] < EquityLPfalling && falling(EquityLP)) { //drawdown
		if (emode==1) Lots = -1; //set phantom trade mode
		if (emode==2) return 1; //fade: take signals when losing
		if (emode==3) { //reward success with weighting
			Lots = -1; //set phantom trade mode
			return 1; //allow max 1 phantom trade in drawdown
		}
		if (emode==4) Lots = 1; //mean-reversion: start trading when equity curve falls
		
	}
	else { //positive equity curve
		if (emode==1) Lots = 1; //set normal trade mode
		if (emode==2) return -1; //fade: take reverse signals when winning
		if (emode==3) { //reward success with weighting
			Lots = 1; //set normal trade mode
			if (EquityLP[0] > EquityLPrisingBigger && rising(EquityLP)) return 3; //very big rising
			else if (EquityLP[0] > EquityLPrisingBig && rising(EquityLP)) return 2; //big rising
			else return 1; //rising but not yet significantly
		}
		if (emode==4) Lots = -1; //mean-reversion: stop trading when equity curve rises
	}
}

function checkModifiers()
{
	int reversedir = getOpt(6); //default 0=normal trade direction
	int fridayclose = getOpt(7); //enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
	int hourblockstart = getOpt(8); //block trade opens beginning at NY hour
	int hourblockend = getOpt(9); //block trade opens ending at NY hour
	int dayopencombo = getOpt(10); //combo of days to open; 63=every day
	int dayclosecombo = getOpt(11); //combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
	int marketopencombo = getOpt(12); //combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market

	if ( (!fridayClose(fridayclose) //close NYSE 3pm on Friday
		|| !todayCloseCombo(dayclosecombo) ) //close NYSE 4pm on selected days
		&& todayOpenCombo(dayopencombo) //open on selected days only
		&& marketOpenCombo(marketopencombo) //open during selected markets only
		&& hourOpen(hourblockstart,hourblockend) ) //open during selected hours only
			return 1; //ok to place new trades
	else
		return 0; //no trade, restricted by a modifier	
}


function run()
{
	//AssetList = "Assets-IBFXnano.dta";
	//AssetList = "Assets-IBFXnano-spread25.dta";
	//AssetList = "Assets-IBFXnano-spread100.dta";
	//AssetList = "Assets-IBFXnano-spread300.dta";
	//AssetList = "Assets-FXCMmicro.dta";
	//AssetList = "Assets-FXCMmicro-spread25.dta";
	set(PARAMETERS+FACTORS);
	StartDate = 20080101;
	EndDate = 20130531;
	BarPeriod = 15;
	LookBack = 600;
	DataSplit = 70; //70% training, 30% OOS test
	NumWFOCycles = 5;
	if(is(TESTMODE)) NumSampleCycles = 15; //oversampling on Test only, not Train
	if (Train) { RollLong = 0; RollShort = 0; } //help prevent asymmetry in parameters & profit factors
	checkTradesPerCycle(); //stop Train early if not enough trades
	int maxtrades = getOpt(5);
	checkEquity(); //equity-curve trading
	int reinvestprofits = 1; //invoke margin setting during trade logic
   
	//while(asset(loop("NZDJPY","EURUSD","AUDUSD","AUDCHF","AUDJPY","USDCHF","USDJPY")))
	//asset("USDCHF");
	while(asset(loop("NZDJPY","EURUSD","AUDUSD","AUDCHF","AUDJPY","USDCHF")))
	{
		//edge trading logic
		var TimeCycle = getOpt(1);
		var TimeFactor = getOpt(2);
		//Stop = BarPeriod*PIP; //simple stop level
		Stop = ATR(200) * getOpt(3); //allow 3% tolerance for preferring low stop distances
		Trail = ATR(200) * getOpt(4);
		//if (getOpt(13) && ((LossStreakLong>=getOpt(13)) || (LossStreakShort>=getOpt(13)))) Lots = -1; //limit loss streaks
		Hedge = getOpt(15);

		vars Price = series(price(0));
		vars MA1 = series(SMA(Price,TimeCycle));
		vars MA2 = series(SMA(Price,TimeCycle*TimeFactor));

		if (checkModifiers())
		{
			//OK to trade, let's evaluate signals then
			if (crossOver(MA1,MA2) && rising(MA1))
			{
				if (reinvestprofits) Margin = calculateMargin(1); //long
				//enterLong(); //standard entry
				reverseLong(maxtrades);
			}
			else if(crossUnder(MA1,MA2) && falling(MA2))
			{
				if (reinvestprofits) Margin = calculateMargin(0); //short
				//enterShort(); //standard entry
				reverseShort(maxtrades);
			}
		}
	}

	PlotWidth = 1100;
	PlotHeight1 = 800;
}


Attached Files
Data.zip (31 downloads)
dt-demo5-NZDJPY-EURUSD-AUDUSD-AUDCHF-AUDJPY-USDCHF.png
Last edited by dusktrader; 11/19/13 19:40.