I'm working on rebuilding dt-e7 (aka "demo5"). I have made a number of changes to my build process and wanted to share. This tradebot is being built under Zorro 1.20 and I expect to trade it live once it's done. I'll share my build process along the way and you can feel free to add improvements or any input really.
The former iterations of this tradebot did not properly handle the Margin=0 situation, instead taking 1 Lot trades. I believe this affected the optimization too much, so I've started over from scratch on this build (note in Zorro v1.20, Margin=0 will no longer open a live trade).
I initially started with EURUSD, but was not very satisfied with the results. I then moved to NZDJPY and was happier with that basis, so I used that asset as the core to build out from. Therefore, in dt-e8 EURUSD is completely unused.
The infrastructure is constantly evolving and (hopefully) improving as well. Almost everything works now, several bugs squashed, and no more known issues as of Zorro 1.20.
I've identified the 7 pairs now that I'll use for this tradebot: USDJPY; EURAUD; EURCAD; AUDUSD; AUDCHF; AUDJPY; NZDJPY
Just for fun, I've calculated the "what if" scenario, if this tradebot were to go live today. But it's only optimized for 1 asset, not the other 6 (that's the work still left to do...) But I can use this scenario as a benchmark for comparison... to see how much better the tradebot will become when its fully optimized.
function fridayClose(int fridayclose)
{
//allows Friday trading up until NYSE 3pm; close trades and don't allow after this
if(fridayclose && dow() == FRIDAY && lhour(ET) >= 15)
{
exitLong("*");
exitShort("*");
return 1; //condition met; indicate no further trades
}
return 0; //condition not met; safe to take new trades
}
function hourOpen(int hourblockstart, int hourblockend)
{
//blocks new open trades between selected hours
//uses NYSE time, including DST
if ( (lhour(ET) >= hourblockstart) && (lhour(ET) < hourblockend) )
return 0; //between blocked hours, do not allow trade opens
else
return 1; //no conditions met, allow trades by default
}
function todayOpenCombo(var dayopencombo)
{
//allows optimizer to specify the best combo of days for opens
//bit position 0 = Monday
//bit position 1 = Tuesday
//bit position 2 = Wednesday
//bit position 3 = Thursday
//bit position 4 = Friday
//bit position 5 = Sunday
//given a combination #, the function will return whether
//current dow() is in the combination
int dayopencombobits = dayopencombo+.5; //truncate to rounded int
int today = dow() - 1; //Mon is 0
if (today == 6) today = 5; //bump Sun to 5 (no Sat, keep binary range 0-63)
if (dayopencombobits & (1 << today)) return 1; //current dow() is in the combo
else return 0; //current dow() not in combo, do not allow trade opens
}
function todayCloseCombo(var dayclosecombo)
{
//allows optimizer to specify the best combo of days to close by NYSE 4pm
//bit position 0 = Monday
//bit position 1 = Tuesday
//bit position 2 = Wednesday
//bit position 3 = Thursday
//bit position 4 = Friday
//bit position 5 = Sunday
//given a combination #, the function will determine if we are beyond
//a combo close time, close all trades if necessary, and return 1
//if no further trades allowed today
int dayclosecombobits = dayclosecombo+.5; //truncate to rounded int
int today = dow() - 1; //Mon is 0
if (today == 6) today = 5; //bump Sun to 5 (no Sat, keep binary range 0-63)
if ((dayclosecombobits & (1 << today)) && lhour(ET) >= 16)
{
exitLong("*");
exitShort("*");
return 1; //current dow() is in the combo; indicate no further trades
}
else return 0; //current dow() not in combo, safe to take new trades
}
function marketOpenCombo(var marketopencombo)
{
//allows optimizer to specify best markets to initiate trades
//bit position 0 = New York 8am-5pm Eastern
//bit position 1 = Sydney 5pm-2am Eastern
//bit position 2 = Tokyo 7pm-4am Eastern
//bit position 3 = London 3am-12pm Eastern
//given a combination #, the function will determine if current time is within
//a market part of the combination (returns 1 to allow trading if true)
int marketcombobits = marketopencombo+.5; //truncate to rounded int
if ( (lhour(ET) >=8) && (lhour(ET) <17) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 0)) ) return 1; //inside New York
if ( (lhour(ET) >=17) || (lhour(ET) <2) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 1)) ) return 1; //inside Sydney
if ( (lhour(ET) >=19) || (lhour(ET) <4) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 2)) ) return 1; //inside Tokyo
if ( (lhour(ET) >=3) && (lhour(ET) <12) && (marketcombobits & (1 << 3)) ) return 1; //inside London
return 0; //default - current market not in combination, don't allow trade opens
}
function checkTradesPerCycle()
{
//require minimum 30 trades per WFO cycle or stop training
static int LastWFOCycle = 0, LastNumTrades = 0;
if(Train && (WFOCycle != LastWFOCycle) )
{
if(LastNumTrades > 0 and LastNumTrades < 30)
{
char tradecount[100];
sprintf(tradecount,"Not enough trades per cycle: %d",LastNumTrades);
quit(tradecount);
}
LastWFOCycle = WFOCycle;
}
LastNumTrades = NumWinTotal+NumLossTotal;
}
function calculateMargin(int direction)
{
//calculate risk Margin based on OptimalF and trade direction
Capital = 1000; //simulated account balance
var riskCapital = 300; //basis to trade with
if (direction && OptimalF>.001) //long trade, historically profitable
{
Lots = 1; //allow live trading
return OptimalFLong * riskCapital;
}
else if (!direction && OptimalF>.001) //short trade, historically profitable
{
Lots = 1; //allow live trading
return OptimalFShort * riskCapital;
}
else
Lots = -1; //non-historically profitable = phantom live trades only
return 0; //no Margin allocated for non-historically profitable
}
function getOpt(string param)
{
switch (Asset)
{
case "EURUSD":
switch (param)
{
case "timecycle": return optimize(75,65,85,1,0);
case "timefactor": return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0);
case "stop": return optimize(7.5,2,15,0.5,-1);
case "trail": return optimize(8,3,11,0.5);
case "maxtrades": return 5; //limit trades per signal
case "marketopencombo": return optimize(13,1,15,1); //15)every market
case "dayopencombo": return 63; //optimize(61,1,63,1); //63)every day
case "dayclosecombo": return 0; //optimize(33,1,63,1); //0)none; 63)every day
case "fridayclose": return 1; //no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
case "reversedir": return 0; //trade opposite signals: 0)normal trade direction
case "hedge": return 0; //Hedge mode: 0)none, 4)virtual
case "hourblockstart": return 0; //block trade opens beginning at NY hour
case "hourblockend": return 0; //block trade opens ending at NY hour
case "lossstreaks": return 21; //0)no limit
case "emode": return 0; //equity-curve trading: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
}
case "NZDJPY":
switch (param)
{
case "timecycle": return optimize(70,60,80,1,0);
case "timefactor": return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0);
case "stop": return optimize(4,1,7,0.5,-2);
case "trail": return optimize(7,3,11,0.5);
case "maxtrades": return 7; //limit trades per signal
case "marketopencombo": return 15; //optimize(9,1,15,1); //15)every market
case "dayopencombo": return 63; //optimize(13,1,63,1); //63)every day
case "dayclosecombo": return 0; //optimize(34,1,63,1); //0)none; 63)every day
case "fridayclose": return 0; //no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
case "reversedir": return 0; //trade opposite signals: 0)normal trade direction
case "hedge": return 4; //Hedge mode: 0)none, 4)virtual
case "hourblockstart": return 0; //block trade opens beginning at NY hour
case "hourblockend": return 0; //block trade opens ending at NY hour
case "lossstreaks": return 19; //0)no limit
case "emode": return 1; //equity-curve trading: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
}
default: //use with Step 3a: prospecting
switch (param)
{
case "timecycle": return optimize(70,60,80,1,0);
case "timefactor": return optimize(2.4,0.2,5,0.2,0);
case "stop": return optimize(4,1,7,0.5,-2);
case "trail": return optimize(7,3,11,0.5);
case "maxtrades": return 7; //limit trades per signal
case "marketopencombo": return 15; //optimize(9,1,15,1); //15)every market
case "dayopencombo": return 63; //optimize(13,1,63,1); //63)every day
case "dayclosecombo": return 0; //optimize(34,1,63,1); //0)none; 63)every day
case "fridayclose": return 0; //no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
case "reversedir": return 0; //trade opposite signals: 0)normal trade direction
case "hedge": return 0; //Hedge mode: 0)none, 4)virtual
case "hourblockstart": return 0; //block trade opens beginning at NY hour
case "hourblockend": return 0; //block trade opens ending at NY hour
case "lossstreaks": return 0; //0)no limit
case "emode": return 0; //equity-curve trading: 0)none; 1)standard; 2)switch hitter; 3)weighted; 4)mean reversion
}
}
}
function checkEquity()
{
int emode = getOpt("emode");
if (!emode) return; //no equity-curve trading
//emode 1 = standard: sets phantom/normal mode only (via Lots)
//emode 2 = switch hitter: always in market (Lots=1), fades direction (via dir)
//emode 3 = reward success with weighting: increase trades based on degree of improvement
//emode 4 = mean reversion: trade when equity curve falls (Lots=1), sit out when it rises (Lots=-1)
vars EquityCurve = series(EquityLong+EquityShort); //includes all phantom equity
var dir; //indicates normal trade direction (dir=1) or reverse (dir=-1)
//narrower curves
//var slow = 50;
//var fast = 10;
//wider curves
//var slow = 100;
//var fast = 10;
//mega-wide curves
var slow = 200;
var fast = 10;
//uber-wide curves
//var slow = 300;
//var fast = 10;
//optimized curves
//var slow = optimize(50,50,300,12);
//var fast = 10;
vars EquityLP = series(LowPass(EquityCurve,fast));
var EquityLPfalling = LowPass(EquityLP,slow);
var EquityLPrisingBigger = LowPass(EquityLP,slow*3.2);
var EquityLPrisingBig = LowPass(EquityLP,slow*1.5);
//plot("EquityLPslow",LowPass(EquityLP,slow),1,BLUE);
//plot("EquityLPfast",LowPass(EquityLP,fast),0,GREEN);
if(EquityLP[0] < EquityLPfalling && falling(EquityLP)) { //drawdown
if (emode==1) Lots = -1; //set phantom trade mode
if (emode==2) return 1; //fade: take signals when losing
if (emode==3) { //reward success with weighting
Lots = -1; //set phantom trade mode
return 1; //allow max 1 phantom trade in drawdown
}
if (emode==4) Lots = 1; //mean-reversion: start trading when equity curve falls
}
else { //positive equity curve
if (emode==1) Lots = 1; //set normal trade mode
if (emode==2) return -1; //fade: take reverse signals when winning
if (emode==3) { //reward success with weighting
Lots = 1; //set normal trade mode
if (EquityLP[0] > EquityLPrisingBigger && rising(EquityLP)) return 3; //very big rising
else if (EquityLP[0] > EquityLPrisingBig && rising(EquityLP)) return 2; //big rising
else return 1; //rising but not yet significantly
}
if (emode==4) Lots = -1; //mean-reversion: stop trading when equity curve rises
}
}
function checkStreak()
{
//disallow trading this asset if loss streak threshold breached
if (getOpt("lossstreaks") && ((LossStreakLong>=getOpt("lossstreaks")) || (LossStreakShort>=getOpt("lossstreaks"))))
{
Margin = 0;
printf("\nWarning: %s breached loss streak limit of %i; may need reTrain",Asset,getOpt("lossstreaks"));
}
}
function checkModifiers()
{
int reversedir = getOpt("reversedir"); //default 0=normal trade direction
int fridayclose = getOpt("fridayclose"); //enforce auto-close and no trades after NYSE 3pm Friday
int hourblockstart = getOpt("hourblockstart"); //block trade opens beginning at NY hour
int hourblockend = getOpt("hourblockend"); //block trade opens ending at NY hour
int dayopencombo = getOpt("dayopencombo"); //combo of days to open; 63=every day
int dayclosecombo = getOpt("dayclosecombo"); //combo of days to close after NYSE 4pm; 0=none; 63=every day
int marketopencombo = getOpt("marketopencombo"); //combo of markets to allow trade opens; 15=every market
if ( (!fridayClose(fridayclose) //close NYSE 3pm on Friday
|| !todayCloseCombo(dayclosecombo) ) //close NYSE 4pm on selected days
&& todayOpenCombo(dayopencombo) //open on selected days only
&& marketOpenCombo(marketopencombo) //open during selected markets only
&& hourOpen(hourblockstart,hourblockend) ) //open during selected hours only
return 1; //ok to place new trades
else
return 0; //no trade, restricted by a modifier
}
function run()
{
AssetList = "Assets-IBFXnano.dta";
//AssetList = "Assets-IBFXnano-spread100.dta";
//AssetList = "Assets-IBFXnano-spread300.dta";
//AssetList = "Assets-FXCMmicro.dta";
//AssetList = "Assets-FXCMmicro-spread100.dta";
set(PARAMETERS+ALLCYCLES+FACTORS);
StartDate = 20080101;
EndDate = 20131125;
GapDays = 3; //alert if more than 3 days gap in data
BarPeriod = 15;
LookBack = 600;
DataSplit = 70; //70% training, 30% OOS test
NumWFOCycles = 5;
if(is(TESTMODE)) NumSampleCycles = 15; //oversampling on Test only, not Train
if (Train) { RollLong = 0; RollShort = 0; } //help prevent asymmetry in parameters & profit factors
checkTradesPerCycle(); //stop Train early if not enough trades
int reinvestprofits = 1; //invoke margin setting during trade logic
while(asset(loop("USDJPY","EURAUD","EURCAD","AUDUSD","AUDCHF","AUDJPY","NZDJPY")))
//asset("NZDJPY");
{
int maxtrades = getOpt("maxtrades");
checkEquity(); //equity-curve trading
Hedge = getOpt("hedge");
//edge trading logic
var TimeCycle = getOpt("timecycle");
var TimeFactor = getOpt("timefactor");
//Stop = BarPeriod*PIP; //simple stop level
Stop = ATR(100) * getOpt("stop");
Trail = ATR(100) * getOpt("trail");
vars Price = series(price(0));
vars MA1 = series(SMA(Price,TimeCycle));
vars MA2 = series(SMA(Price,TimeCycle*TimeFactor));
if (checkModifiers()) //only evaluate signals if no restrictions in force
{
if (crossOver(MA1,MA2) && rising(MA1)) //long signal
{
if (reinvestprofits) Margin = calculateMargin(1); //long
checkStreak(); //disallow trading if loss streak limit breached
//enterLong(); //standard entry
if (!getOpt("reversedir")) reverseLong(maxtrades); else reverseShort(maxtrades);
}
else if(crossUnder(MA1,MA2) && falling(MA2)) //short signal
{
if (reinvestprofits) Margin = calculateMargin(0); //short
checkStreak(); //disallow trading if loss streak limit breached
//enterShort(); //standard entry
if (!getOpt("reversedir")) reverseShort(maxtrades); else reverseLong(maxtrades);
}
}
}
PlotWidth = 1100;
PlotHeight1 = 600;
}