#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars CorrelationMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Correlation adjacency matrix
vars ArbitrageMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Arbitrage adjacency matrix
int StateMatrix[PAIRS][3][3]; // Transition matrix for each pair
int LookBack = 200; // Lookback period for calculations
// Function to calculate correlation between two series
function calculateCorrelation(vars series1, vars series2, int len) {
var mean1 = SMA(series1, len);
var mean2 = SMA(series2, len);
var numerator = 0, denom1 = 0, denom2 = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < len; i++) {
numerator += (series1[i] - mean1) * (series2[i] - mean2);
denom1 += pow(series1[i] - mean1, 2);
denom2 += pow(series2[i] - mean2, 2);
}
return numerator / sqrt(denom1 * denom2);
}
// Initialize the correlation network
function initializeCorrelationNetwork() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
vars series1 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[i]));
vars series2 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = calculateCorrelation(series1, series2, LookBack);
} else {
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = 1; // Self-correlation
}
}
}
}
// Calculate arbitrage opportunities between pairs
function calculateArbitrage() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = log(price(CurrencyPairs[i]) / price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
} else {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = 0; // No arbitrage within the same pair
}
}
}
}
// Detect arbitrage cycles using a Bellman-Ford-like algorithm
function detectArbitrageCycles() {
for (int k = 0; k < PAIRS; k++) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][k] + ArbitrageMatrix[k][j] < ArbitrageMatrix[i][j]) {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = ArbitrageMatrix[i][k] + ArbitrageMatrix[k][j];
}
}
}
}
}
// Get the current market state for a currency pair
function getState(string pair) {
var fastMA = SMA(series(price(pair)), 50);
var slowMA = SMA(series(price(pair)), 200);
if (fastMA > slowMA) return 1; // Bull
else if (fastMA < slowMA) return -1; // Bear
return 0; // Sideways
}
// Update the state transition matrix
function updateStateTransition(int pairIndex) {
int currentState = getState(CurrencyPairs[pairIndex]);
int lastState = StateMatrix[pairIndex][2]; // Store last state
StateMatrix[pairIndex][lastState + 1][currentState + 1]++;
StateMatrix[pairIndex][2] = currentState; // Update last state
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Initialize networks
initializeCorrelationNetwork();
calculateArbitrage();
// Update state transitions for each pair
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
updateStateTransition(i);
}
// Example: Trade when arbitrage is detected
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] > 0.01) { // Arbitrage threshold
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[j]);
}
}
}
}