The Dynamic Exam Study Plan

Imagine you are part of a study group of 28 students (representing the 28 currency pairs), and each student has their own unique strengths and weaknesses in different subjects like Math, Science, and Literature (representing market volatility). Each student’s performance changes over time depending on how much they study, external distractions, and collaboration with others in the group (representing market dynamics and interdependencies). Your goal is to create a dynamic and adaptive study plan that helps the whole group excel in an upcoming exam, even though you have limited time and resources.

Key Elements of the Problem
Study Stress as Volatility:

Each student’s stress level represents their volatility. Some students get very stressed (high volatility), while others are calm and steady (low volatility).
Stress changes over time based on how difficult the subject is and how much preparation they’ve done recently (like rolling standard deviations of their past "study returns").
The Principal of PCA (Principal Component Analysis):

You notice that not all topics are equally hard for everyone. Some topics like Algebra (or "Eigenvalues" in our original problem) affect most students' stress levels more than others, such as Creative Writing.
To simplify the problem, you identify a few key topics that cause the most stress for the group. These topics act like "Principal Components," and focusing on them can explain most of the group’s challenges.
The GNN (Study Group Network):

Some students are better at helping others because they understand connections between topics well (like connecting Algebra to Physics). These connections form a "network" of study helpers.
The stronger the connections between two students (measured by how often they work together and help each other), the better the group performs.
Entropy (Confidence in Preparation):

After each study session, you give every student three choices for their confidence: "I’m ready," "I’m nervous," or "I’m not sure" (representing Buy, Sell, Hold in trading).
If students are very confident in their knowledge, their "entropy" is low (less uncertainty). If everyone is unsure, entropy is high.
You use this entropy to adjust how much focus you should put on each student in the study plan.
Dynamic Thresholds (Study Plan):

You realize that every student needs a unique threshold for when they are ready to move on to a new topic. Some students need more time (higher threshold), while others can switch topics quickly (lower threshold).
The thresholds are dynamic and depend on:
How much stress they’ve reduced recently (volatility change rate).
How critical the topic is for the group (PCA contribution).
How confident they feel (entropy of their confidence).
The Exam as the Market:

The final test acts like the real-world trading market. If the study group can align their efforts (similar to finding trading signals), they maximize their overall performance (similar to the Sharpe Ratio for returns).

The Goal:

Help every student perform their best (like maximizing profits in trading).
Minimize unnecessary stress and avoid overloading anyone (like minimizing risks and variance).
Adapt the study plan dynamically to new challenges and feedback (like responding to changing market conditions).

The Problem:

Each student's stress level follows a random path (like a stochastic process) and is influenced by their natural abilities and study habits.
The group's success depends on finding the optimal way to balance individual efforts and group collaboration.
How can you create a study plan that dynamically adapts to each student’s needs, while also ensuring the group collectively performs well?


Code
#define PAIRS 28
#define COMPONENTS 3   // Number of PCA components
#define GNN_LAYERS 2   // Number of GNN layers
#define ACTIONS 3      // Buy, Sell, Hold

// Define currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
    "EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
    "AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
    "EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
    "USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};

// Variables for PCA, GNN, and signals
vars volatilities[PAIRS];                   // Current volatilities
vars volChangeRate[PAIRS];                  // Volatility change rate
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS];            // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars pcaReducedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // PCA-reduced features
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS];       // GNN adjacency matrices
vars gnnWeights[GNN_LAYERS][COMPONENTS][COMPONENTS]; // GNN weights
vars gnnOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS];            // GNN probabilities (Buy/Sell/Hold)
vars signals[PAIRS];                        // Final trading signals
vars eigenvalues[COMPONENTS];               // Eigenvalues from PCA

// Step 1: Calculate Volatility and Change Rate
function calculateVolatility() {
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        asset(CurrencyPairs[i]);
        vars logReturns = series(priceClose(0) / priceClose(1) - 1); // Log returns
        volatilities[i] = sqrt(SMA(pow(logReturns, 2), 20));        // 20-bar rolling std dev
        volChangeRate[i] = volatilities[i] - volatilities[i+1];     // Change rate
    }
}

// Step 2: Perform Kernel PCA
function performKernelPCA() {
    // Construct Kernel Matrix
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
            kernelMatrix[i][j] = exp(-pow(volatilities[i] - volatilities[j], 2) / (2 * 0.1 * 0.1)); // Gaussian kernel
        }
    }

    // Perform eigen decomposition (simplified example)
    vars eigenvectors;
    eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
    
    // Reduce dimensions using top COMPONENTS
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
            pcaReducedFeatures[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
        }
    }
}

// Step 3: Initialize GNN Weights
function initializeGNNWeights() {
    for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
        for (int i = 0; i < COMPONENTS; i++) {
            for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
                gnnWeights[l][i][j] = random() * 0.1; // Small random initialization
            }
        }
    }
}

// Step 4: GNN Propagation
function propagateGNN() {
    vars tempFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS];
    for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
        for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
            for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
                tempFeatures[i][k] = 0;
                for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
                    for (int m = 0; m < COMPONENTS; m++) {
                        tempFeatures[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j] * pcaReducedFeatures[j][m] * gnnWeights[l][m][k];
                    }
                }
                tempFeatures[i][k] = max(0, tempFeatures[i][k]); // ReLU activation
            }
        }
        // Update PCA features for the next layer
        for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
            for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
                pcaReducedFeatures[i][k] = tempFeatures[i][k];
            }
        }
    }
    // Final probabilities for Buy, Sell, Hold
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
            gnnOutputs[i][k] = softmax(tempFeatures[i][k]); // Example output
        }
    }
}

// Step 5: Generate Trading Signals with PCA and GNN Thresholds
function generateSignals() {
    // Calculate PCA Variance Contribution
    var totalVariance = 0;
    for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
        totalVariance += eigenvalues[k];
    }
    var pcaContribution = eigenvalues[0] / totalVariance; // Contribution of the top component

    // Calculate GNN Entropy for each pair
    vars gnnEntropy[PAIRS];
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        gnnEntropy[i] = 0;
        for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
            gnnEntropy[i] -= gnnOutputs[i][k] * log(gnnOutputs[i][k] + 1e-8);
        }
    }

    // Calculate Dynamic Thresholds with PCA and GNN
    vars dynamicThresholdBuy[PAIRS];
    vars dynamicThresholdSell[PAIRS];
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        var meanVolChangeRate = SMA(volChangeRate, PAIRS);
        var stddevVolChangeRate = StdDev(volChangeRate, PAIRS);

        // Adjust thresholds with PCA and GNN contributions
        dynamicThresholdBuy[i] = meanVolChangeRate + 0.5 * stddevVolChangeRate * pcaContribution * (1 - gnnEntropy[i]);
        dynamicThresholdSell[i] = meanVolChangeRate - 0.5 * stddevVolChangeRate * pcaContribution * (1 - gnnEntropy[i]);
    }

    // Generate Trading Signals
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        var gnnBuyProb = gnnOutputs[i][0];
        var gnnSellProb = gnnOutputs[i][1];

        signals[i] = gnnBuyProb - gnnSellProb; // Base signal

        // Incorporate dynamic thresholds
        if (signals[i] > dynamicThresholdBuy[i]) signals[i] = 1; // Strong Buy
        else if (signals[i] < dynamicThresholdSell[i]) signals[i] = -1; // Strong Sell
        else signals[i] = 0; // Hold
    }
}

// Step 6: Execute Trades
function executeTrades() {
    for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
        if (signals[i] == 1) enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]); // Strong Buy
        else if (signals[i] == -1) enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]); // Strong Sell
    }
}

// Main Strategy Function
function run() {
    set(PLOTNOW);

    // Calculate volatility and change rate
    calculateVolatility();

    // Perform kernel PCA
    performKernelPCA();

    // Initialize GNN weights (once)
    if (is(INITRUN)) initializeGNNWeights();

    // Propagate GNN
    propagateGNN();

    // Generate signals
    generateSignals();

    // Execute trades
    executeTrades();
}

Attached Files