The simulator is designed as a multiscale time series laboratory for studying how a nonstationary observed process can be decomposed, forecast, regularized, and reassembled through interacting stochastic representations across multiple temporal resolutions. Its purpose is to compare heterogeneous autoregressive, integrated, moving-average, seasonal, and exogenous-state formulations on the same evolving signal, while simultaneously tracking the local geometry of the series through derived state variables such as displacement-like level, velocity-like increment, acceleration-like curvature, higher-order change, energy-like amplitude concentration, damping-like persistence loss, and resonance-like frequency alignment. The system evaluates how these derived quantities co-evolve under changing dependence structure, changing variance, changing memory depth, and changing cross-scale agreement, and it uses those interactions to adapt the relative influence of competing forecasting contexts. In this sense, the simulator is not merely a forecast engine but a dynamic estimator of structure, where each contextual model contributes a partial view of the underlying temporal law and where contextual weights are updated according to residual whiteness, normality, heteroskedasticity sensitivity, error persistence, directional agreement, and state-consistency criteria. The framework also serves as a controlled environment for examining the stability of recursive model reuse, the consequences of delayed refitting, the emergence of seasonal persistence, the effect of transformed coordinates such as logarithmic and differenced states, and the propagation of uncertainty through an ensemble of conditional predictive distributions. At a higher level, the simulator can be understood as an adaptive operator on time-indexed data that maps raw observations into a hierarchy of latent state summaries, local diagnostics, cross-resolution coherence measures, and regime-sensitive forecast fields. Its central mathematical aim is to explore how one can construct a robust, self-correcting approximation to a complex evolving time series by coupling classical stochastic process models with state-dependent weighting, multiresolution consistency checks, and dynamically stabilized forecast aggregation.

Attached Files
PhyTimeSeries.zip (2 downloads)