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Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: vartan_s] #96610
10/31/06 15:32
10/31/06 15:32
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PHeMoX Offline
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There are choices even if there's no chance, so prediction of anything will be very hard.

Quote:

What if I knew all these factors.




Beyond humanly possible, yeah but that kinda makes it too much theoretical. If you knew everything, then you would know how everything works in this universe too.

If you know the seed of the randomness, then because you know it could you still call it random? (I'm talking about knowledge of the 'infinite seed for the randomness, combined with it's 'random' outcome', quite impossible for us to know. And still random if you knew imho.)

Randomness in a computer function isn't random, because it's seed isn't random (or the seed is not random enough, not sure exactly, but I heard it's not really random.), but this has it's advantages too.

Quote:

It will always do the same thing, in the same situation.




Problem is, every situation is unique. Yes, it may be similar, but it can't be the same. So, there you go. The evidence that proves randomness.

Cheers


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Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: PHeMoX] #96611
10/31/06 16:41
10/31/06 16:41
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vartan_s Offline OP
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Think about it this way.

If an event happens to you, you will react to it in a certain way.

If such an event happens in a parallel universe again with you, you will react the exact same way. So there is a set way people react to things.

Now, if we knew exactly what these events were due to no randomness, since there is no chance in your reactions, there would be a set reaction.

A person will always have the same reaction to the same event, so to the events that happens there will be a certain reaction. The only way to change this reacton and what you do, is to change the events themselves.

Apart from that, nothing affects these actions from the person.

Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: vartan_s] #96612
10/31/06 16:56
10/31/06 16:56
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a.) you can't know wether or not the reaction would be the same, since we experience only 1 past, present and future. b.) we humans are complex enough to behave in a complex way, I don't think we would react the same to each exact same situation.

Quote:

A person will always have the same reaction to the same event




Especially theoretically, this is just an assumption off course, every person has more than one choice to choose from.
Fact is, we can only choose one of them, but which one we choose is entirely up to ourselves, not bound to any rule.

Cheers

Cheers


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Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: Damocles] #96613
10/31/06 20:45
10/31/06 20:45
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AlbertoT Offline
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Quote:

These effect get really small in large scale systems,
but are very valid for small systems.

So the probabilistics of quantumeffects will not change wheter a star will explode or not,





It is exactly the same answer I gave sometime ago about indeterminism.
Reading the Seth LLoyd's book I realized I was partially wrong consequently you also are now partially wrong

It is true that Heisemberg's indeterminism is valid only for atomic system
It is also true that "organized and stable " entities are not affected by the indeterminism
The orbit of the planets or of our galaxies have nothing to do with quantum theory
However large but still chaotic system are heavly affected by the indeterminism

The indeterminism, at atomic level, is a sort of "trigger " whic can make the star explode ( or condensate)

Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: AlbertoT] #96614
10/31/06 22:53
10/31/06 22:53
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Damocles Offline
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The quantumeffects are unprecise and "random",
but by the sheer number of the qantums, the "chances" even out.

So a star will explode or not given it mass and composition.
Quantumeffexts will not change wheter is does that or not.
The effect of quantum randomness is just too small to have any impact on this
"decision".

Quote:

A person will always have the same reaction to the same event




This is a totally different system, as peoples are never! in the same event twice.
(Even if we think, that the event is the same, from a physical standpoint it is
totally different)

Last edited by Damocles; 10/31/06 22:56.
Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: Damocles] #96615
10/31/06 23:06
10/31/06 23:06
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AlbertoT Offline
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Quote:


a star will explode or not given it mass and composition.





As far as the the explosion of the star is concerned probably you are right but generally speaking it is a mistake to assume that the quantum phisics does not affect the macro system

Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: AlbertoT] #96616
10/31/06 23:31
10/31/06 23:31
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Damocles Offline
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Quantumeffects determine how the marcrocosmos works, (since the macrocosmos is made out of quantums)
I was just talking about that the random variations even out statistically,
so that the same macrocosmos exact "copy" will behave the same, if you could re-run it again and
again.

Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: Damocles] #96617
10/31/06 23:52
10/31/06 23:52
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Matt_Aufderheide Offline
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I would point out that quantum mechanics are merely a model for subatomic physics and attempts to apply the theory to human behavior and human constructs such as "chance" are nonsensical.

As far as whether anything in the macrocosm is random, we dont need quantum mechanics, we just need to observe nature and use some logic. If a tree is growing, there is a chance that it will bend one way or anotehr. There is a chance it will rain, a chance that a deer will run in front of your car. What is chance but things that happen without any way to know that they will from one single human perspective? Only for an omniscient God is there no such thing as chance.


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Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: Matt_Aufderheide] #96618
11/01/06 01:11
11/01/06 01:11
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AlbertoT Offline
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I definitly agree that we can not mixed up human beahvior with quantum phisics
However even if we stick to phisics the question is a very hard one

- In the 19 century Scientists did not beleive in chance
chance was supposed to be a "lack" of information
There is not a chance that tomorrow rain
Simply we dont have all the correct informations about temperature - pressure - humidity etc
A lot of people think that this is the right answer, but it is false

- The theory of chaos claims that , in some situation, even though we have all the informations and a super computer as well, nevertheless we can not forcast the future beyond a certain period of time

- Some quantum phisics claim that claim the supposed indeterminism depend upon the measuring
If you measure an event you alter the event itself
However if you let nature alone , nature is deterministic even at atomic level

- Some other quantum phisics on the contrary beleive that at atomic level , nature is "really" non deterministic

As far as I know the problem of chance has not been solved yet

Re: Does chance really exist? [Re: AlbertoT] #96619
11/01/06 04:52
11/01/06 04:52
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Matt_Aufderheide Offline
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Quote:

Simply we dont have all the correct informations about temperature - pressure - humidity etc




that was my point.. chance is purely subjective, and so is certainty. Because it is likely impossible to have ALL information, then to the observer the universe is essentially random--how is he to know otherwise?


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