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Re: Does chance really exist?
[Re: AlbertoT]
#96630
11/02/06 12:40
11/02/06 12:40
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Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,177 Netherlands
PHeMoX
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Senior Expert
Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,177
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Quote:
But in the reality it is not a chance
I disagree, but this will go on forever if we don't stop somewhere. Theory != practise. And when you take an 'x' for all the unknown factors, it may not make the theory false, however if you'd wish to calculate something with it, you'd still have 'chance'.
Quote:
Such claim is completely false
You are forgetting the time factor, off course it's impossible to predict the outcome of throwing a dice. You might be lucky sometimes, but it's not possible to calculate the outcome on before hand, there are things that change the moment you throw the dice. Even if you had a very complicated formula, it would still not work.
Cheers
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Re: Does chance really exist?
[Re: PHeMoX]
#96631
11/02/06 18:07
11/02/06 18:07
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Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,131
Matt_Aufderheide
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Quote:
"Let's throw a dice .. there's really no way to predict the outcome always correctly for an infinite amount of times"
Such claim is completely false
I cant accept this.. the dice throw is a good example of randomness over time. Chaos theory predicts that any complex iterative predictive system becomes no better than a wild guess. Over time, it would indeed to be impossible to correctly predict every dice throw.
Chance as we think of it depends on the viewers information, and it is impossible to have ALL information, therefore chance exists.
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Re: Does chance really exist?
[Re: Matt_Aufderheide]
#96632
11/02/06 19:27
11/02/06 19:27
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Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,245
AlbertoT
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" Chaos theory predicts that any complex iterative predictive system becomes no better than a wild guess. "
It is right that the theory of chaos cast a shadow on determinism. I myself was supporting the same opinion in an other thread. However it is not applicable in this case.
A chaotic system is something in continuos evolution The current state of the system is influenced by the previous one and it influences the next one You have used correctly the term "iterative" In this situation, just in some cases...not alwayes !!! , the system becomes a wild guess
The throw of the dice is completely a different case It is not "iterative" because at any throw you reset the initial conditions Consequently any throw is a stand alone case which is not influence and does not influence the other throws
"it is impossible to have ALL information, therefore chance exists."
You also confuse the popular meaning of the word "chance" which we use in our normal dayly conversations and the scientific term
Do you seriously think that Heisemberg and Bohr on one side and Einstein on the other side have been discussing for years wether it possible or not , to have all the informations ?
The issue is much more deeper and it has nothing to do with the word "chance" as you use it
Determinism (Einstein) is in favour of the :
cause -> effect theory
The quantum theory (Bohr - heisemberg) is against
If an "event" occurs ,we all, not only Einstein, assume that there is an "explanation" for that event Maybe such explanation is unknown but , we beleive , that this explanation (cause) must exist If we throw a dice and we get 6 instead of 1 , we assume that this result was due to the fact that we threw the dice with a certain force rather than with a slight different one... Maybe the force suitable for getting the 6 and the force for getting the 1 are unknown but , we think, they must exist
This is what we assume and we are right as long as we are talking about the macro world
Eistein thought that determinism must be true also for the atomic world Hisemberg and Bohr said : No The principle : cause - effect is not applicable to the sub atomic world the sub atomic world is a pure lottery It is not a matter of lack of information It is a real lottery
Eistein replied that quantum phisics is a bloody mistake but he was wrong
I hope now it is clear
We dont' know wh
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Re: Does chance really exist?
[Re: AlbertoT]
#96634
11/02/06 22:22
11/02/06 22:22
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Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,177 Netherlands
PHeMoX
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Senior Expert
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Don't want to be rude in any way, but I know what's meant with 'chance' as the scientific word, that is what I was talking about all along. As I told you before I disagreed with Einstein's view and agree with the quantum mechanics theory, and as we both know Einstein's view has been discredited anyway. What exactly are you trying to tell us? I am talking about the scientific 'Chance'. The dice example is just one of many examples I can come up with. I know Einstein and others were thinking in events, causes, reactions. What exactly makes you think the dice example is any different, apart from being slightly less complicated perhaps? Quote:
The point is, what what we may perceive as random, actually might not be so random...lol
The problem lies in knowledge in combination with the factor time, so even if we knew everything, it would still be random enough to never be able to tell the outcome every single time.
Cheers
Last edited by PHeMoX; 11/02/06 22:26.
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Re: Does chance really exist?
[Re: AlbertoT]
#96636
11/03/06 01:38
11/03/06 01:38
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Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,177 Netherlands
PHeMoX
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Quote:
If you throw a dice using a sophisticated device which is calibrated for applying an initial speed with an high degree of accuracy ,then you will get the predicted result
Where's your sophisticated device which proves this?
You should try what you're suggesting instead. ![](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smirk.gif)
You can do the experiment yourself, without a sophisticated machine.
Let a dice drop from about 30cm height and don't apply any extra force, just let it go. I'm 100% sure you won't predict the outcome more often than it's chance of happening (assuming you do it more than 6 times off course, 100 times should do it, but the more tries, the better.)
If you want to use a machine, use one claw which can hold a dice and release it upon pressing a button...
You can do this experiment in 'two flavours', first time you keep the starting position of the dice the same. For example the 2 dots on top. Try 100 times and predict the outcome on beforehand. The second experiment you keep the starting position random and then try 100 times and predict the outcome. The evidence is out there, trust me, ![](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif)
Cheers
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Re: Does chance really exist?
[Re: Matt_Aufderheide]
#96638
11/03/06 08:30
11/03/06 08:30
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Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,245
AlbertoT
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Serious User
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,245
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Matt and Phemox Now I really quit, this discussion does not really make any sense I even suspected that you have been pulling my legs ![](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif) If you are right then some thousands scientists from Galileo up to Einstein were wrong Do you realize it ?
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Re: Does chance really exist?
[Re: AlbertoT]
#96639
11/03/06 11:53
11/03/06 11:53
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Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,177 Netherlands
PHeMoX
Senior Expert
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Quote:
If you are right then some thousands scientists from Galileo up to Einstein were wrong Do you realize it ?
Well, my neutral reply to this would be that it's not impossible. In the end, we're all human. To me it's a bit strange to take every single word they've said for granted and as the one and only scientific truth.
Science is no religion my friend.
Skepticism about even the greatest minds in history, is a healthy thing eventhough it may sound extremely arrogant in a way... (excuse me for that)
Cheers
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