Simplifying won't work here ... All variables influence the outcome, you can't simply ignore half of the factors ...
Furthermore, like I said, there are factors that may vary along the way of throwing the dice ... How could you know those factors and their variation? You can't.
I'm not a fan of the chaos theory, but let's say for a moment you agree with the possibility of a butterfly causing a huricane, then those kind of factors should be known too. There's simply too much that you can't ever know.
Quote:
complicated differential equation
You can't even write this differential equation down if you don't know ALL what influences the dice.
I don't see how chance could be the outcome of a simple differential equation.
Cheers