Posted By: pascalx
Cointoss results in less than 50% win consistently. Why? - 08/31/17 16:28
Hi. I wrote a script as exercise to perform simple buy/sell for each day with plain Stop and TakeProfit levels over a bit of data. The data is sufficiently large to assume a worthy result. My expectation of the coin toss is around 50% win/loss.
Weirdly though, it consistently yields around 47% wins only. Since Stop and TakeProfit levels are supposedly identical, I assumed the chances that the price hits either one of them balances out over large amounts.
Please find attached image/scripts.
The image shows the total number of cointoss wins/losses for all traded assets.
Also: Is it possible to perform multiple runs in one test session? I wanted to rerun the simulation with new random seeds to get a better picture. I tried setting Bar=0, but that resulted in an error for too many trades.
Weirdly though, it consistently yields around 47% wins only. Since Stop and TakeProfit levels are supposedly identical, I assumed the chances that the price hits either one of them balances out over large amounts.
Please find attached image/scripts.
The image shows the total number of cointoss wins/losses for all traded assets.
Also: Is it possible to perform multiple runs in one test session? I wanted to rerun the simulation with new random seeds to get a better picture. I tried setting Bar=0, but that resulted in an error for too many trades.