Very interested in this capability. I'm familiar with the concept of ChatGPT and its applications for coding; however, I have never personally used it before. Are you able to provide some examples of it being used in a Zorro specific application?
Here is one Idea : I Wish Zorro Trader (lite-C) could manage better dynamic memory. Trying to code the below program in dynamic memory, doesn't work out properly. (Error 111 in main())
Code
#include <stdio.h>
#define INT_BITS 32
#define MAX_NODES 1024
// Trie node structure
typedef struct TrieNode {
struct TrieNode* bit[2];
} TrieNode;
TrieNode trieNodes[MAX_NODES];
int trieNodeCount = 0;
TrieNode* newTrieNode() {
if (trieNodeCount >= MAX_NODES) {
printf("Exceeded maximum trie nodes\n");
return NULL;
}
TrieNode* newNode = &trieNodes[trieNodeCount++];
newNode->bit[0] = NULL;
newNode->bit[1] = NULL;
return newNode;
}
void insert(TrieNode* root, int number) {
TrieNode* current = root;
int i, bit;
for (i = INT_BITS - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
bit = (number >> i) & 1;
if (!current->bit[bit]) {
current->bit[bit] = newTrieNode();
if (!current->bit[bit]) return;
}
current = current->bit[bit];
}
}
int findMaxXOR(TrieNode* root, int number) {
TrieNode* current = root;
int maxXOR = 0;
int i, bit;
for (i = INT_BITS - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
bit = (number >> i) & 1;
if (current->bit[1 - bit]) {
maxXOR |= (1 << i);
current = current->bit[1 - bit];
} else {
current = current->bit[bit];
}
}
return maxXOR;
}
int getMaxXOR(int* arr, int size) {
TrieNode* root = newTrieNode();
if (!root) return 0;
int maxXOR = 0;
int i, currentXOR;
for (i = 0; i < size; i++) {
insert(root, arr[i]);
currentXOR = findMaxXOR(root, arr[i]);
if (currentXOR > maxXOR) {
maxXOR = currentXOR;
}
}
return maxXOR;
}
void main() {
int arr[10] = {3, 10, 5, 25, 2, 8};
int size = 6;
int result = getMaxXOR(arr, size);
printf("Maximum XOR: %d\n", result);
}
Yes, Thank you very much for the idea, and it is a very good solution, But it is going beyond the scope of the platform and requires external resources, that depend on other languages. This is very easy to do, but our focus currently is only on Zorro Trader, not going beyond the scope of the platform. While we can always find external resources to solve any problem which can't be solved by Zorro Trader's internal resources.
I do understand, But being dependent on another language or compiler, is mostly what you can do with any language or compiler, the question is can you solve a problem with only the limited tools that lite-C offers you? I have already solved the problem with C, I don't need C++ to solve the problem, I am asking if can anyone solve the problem without being dependent on other external tools, but lite-C only.
Hello TipmyPip, I will try to utilize the ZorroTrader GPT, bard ai by Google is also pretty good. What do you think about it? since its free, can we use bard to spit out lite c code?
This is super cool thank you. All my newbies questions answered in a jiffy and now have GPT as coding assistant and reducing the learning curve massively. All the best
A new phase of algorithmic targets that enable optimized structures to enable better decision-making in optimal time.
Code
Data Structure:
- Array of KeyValue objects
Operations:
- CreateDictionary(size)
- Insert(key, value)
- Lookup(key)
Function customHash(key, size):
return key % size
Function CreateDictionary(size):
dictionary = new KeyValue[size]
for i = 0 to size - 1:
dictionary[i].key = -1
return dictionary
Function Insert(dictionary, size, key, value):
index = customHash(key, size)
while dictionary[index].key != -1:
index = (index + 1) % size
dictionary[index].key = key
dictionary[index].value = value
Function Lookup(dictionary, size, key):
index = customHash(key, size)
while dictionary[index].key != key:
if dictionary[index].key == -1:
return -1
index = (index + 1) % size
return dictionary[index].value
___________________________________________
Data Structure:
- Array of ComplexElement objects
Operations:
- InitializeComplexDataStructure(size)
- ExecuteComplexOperation(key)
Function InitializeComplexDataStructure(size):
complexDataStructure = new ComplexElement[size]
// Initialize complexDataStructure as needed
return complexDataStructure
Function ExecuteComplexOperation(complexDataStructure, size, key):
// Perform a complex trading operation on complexDataStructure based on the key
// This operation has a complexity of O(n^(n*n-1)).
Main:
n = 10
dictionarySize = n * n * n * n
complexDataStructureSize = n * n * n * n // Adjust the size based on complexity requirements
dictionary = CreateDictionary(dictionarySize)
complexDataStructure = InitializeComplexDataStructure(complexDataStructureSize)
for i = 0 to n - 1:
for j = 0 to n - 1:
key = i * n + j
value = key * key
Insert(dictionary, dictionarySize, key, value)
searchKey = 7
result = Lookup(dictionary, dictionarySize, searchKey)
if result != -1:
Print "Value for key", searchKey, "in ComplexDictionary:", result
else:
Print "Key", searchKey, "not found in ComplexDictionary."
// Execute a complex trading operation on ComplexTradingOperation
complexKey = 5 // Adjust the key as needed
ExecuteComplexOperation(complexDataStructure, complexDataStructureSize, complexKey)
Would Zorro Trader GPT help me convert my trading view pinescript indicator into Zorro Scirpt? If so what would the difference be between using the Zorro Trader GPT and just using Chat GPT ?
And if you consider helping out, you can always help find the bugs, and improve on our ideas, Thank you.
Code
#include <contract.c>
// Define your global parameters such as target profit, days to expiration, and strike price offset
var TargetProfit = 500; // Example target profit
int DaysToExpiration = 30; // Target days until expiration
var StrikeOffset = 50; // Offset from the current price for strike selection
void run() {
// Setup basic parameters
BarPeriod = 1440; // Use daily bars
LookBack = 0; // No need for historical bars in options trading setup
StartDate = 2020;
EndDate = 2024; // Set your backtest period
assetList("AssetsIB");
asset("SPY"); // Example using SPY ETF as the underlying asset
// Ensure we're trading in American Options for SPY
AmericanOption = 1;
// Update the contract chain for the underlying asset
if(!contractUpdate(Asset, 0, CALL | PUT)) return;
// Trading logic executed once per day
if(is(EXITRUN)) return; // Skip logic at the end of the backtest
// Define your strangle strategy here
if(NumOpenLong + NumOpenShort == 0) { // Check if there's no open position
// Calculate target strike prices based on current price and offset
var CurrentPrice = priceClose(0);
var StrikeCall = CurrentPrice + StrikeOffset;
var StrikePut = CurrentPrice - StrikeOffset;
// Attempt to find and enter a Strangle combo
if(combo(
contractFind(CALL, DaysToExpiration, StrikeCall), 1, // Buy 1 Call
contractFind(PUT, DaysToExpiration, StrikePut), 1, // Buy 1 Put
0, 0)) {
// Enter the combo trade
enterLong(comboLeg(1)); // Enter long for the call option leg
enterLong(comboLeg(2)); // Enter long for the put option leg
}
}
// Monitor and manage open positions
for(open_trades) { // Loop through all open trades
if(TradeIsOption && TradeIsOpen && (comboProfit(TradePriceClose, 1) > TargetProfit || daysToExpiration() < 5)) {
exitTrade(ThisTrade); // Close the trade if target profit is reached or approaching expiration
}
}
}
// Placeholder function for days to expiration calculation - implement as needed
int daysToExpiration() {
// Custom logic to calculate and return days to expiration for the current combo
return 10; // Placeholder return value
}
// Placeholder function for calculating combo profit - implement based on actual requirements
var comboProfit(var CurrentClosePrice, int Leg) {
// Custom logic to calculate and return profit for the combo based on current prices
return 600; // Placeholder return value
}
Asset Ownership: This strategy assumes you initially buy shares of SPY if you don't already own them.
Option Sale: It sells a call option on SPY with a strike price determined by StrikeOffset above the current price and targets DaysToExpiration for expiration.
Position Management: The script also checks for the option position to close it if the premium target is reached or the expiration is near.
Code
#include <contract.c>
// Global parameters for the covered call strategy
var PremiumTarget = 100; // Target premium income from selling the call
int DaysToExpiration = 45; // Target days until expiration for the call option
var StrikeOffset = 100; // Offset from the current price for strike selection
void run() {
// Setup basic parameters
BarPeriod = 1440; // Use daily bars
LookBack = 0; // No need for historical bars in this setup
StartDate = 2020;
EndDate = 2024; // Set your backtest period
assetList("AssetsIB");
asset("SPY"); // Example using SPY ETF as the underlying asset
// Ensure we're trading in American Options for SPY
AmericanOption = 1;
// Update the contract chain for the underlying asset
if(!contractUpdate(Asset, 0, CALL)) return;
// Trading logic executed once per day
if(is(EXITRUN)) return; // Skip logic at the end of the backtest
// Check if we already own SPY
if(!NumOpenLong) enterLong(1); // Enter long position if we don't own SPY
// Sell a call option if we haven't already
if(NumOpenShort == 0) {
var CurrentPrice = priceClose(0);
var StrikeCall = CurrentPrice + StrikeOffset;
// Finding the call option contract
CONTRACT* callContract = contractFind(CALL, DaysToExpiration, StrikeCall);
if(callContract) {
// Enter a short position by selling the call option
enterShort(1, callContract);
}
}
// Managing the open option position
for(open_trades) {
CONTRACT* c = ThisTrade->Contract;
if(TradeIsOption && TradeIsShort && (comboProfit(c->fAsk, 1) > PremiumTarget || daysToExpiration(c) < 5)) {
exitTrade(ThisTrade); // Close the call option if premium target is reached or approaching expiration
}
}
}
// A more refined function for calculating days to expiration based on contract data
int daysToExpiration(CONTRACT* c) {
if(!c) return 0;
return (c->Expiry - wdate()) / 86400; // Convert seconds to days
}
Selling the Call Option: Use fuzzy logic to evaluate the market condition and the appropriateness of the option's strike price and days to expiration.
Closing the Position: Apply fuzzy logic to decide on closing the option based on current profit and time to expiration.
Code
#include <contract.c>
var FuzzyRange = 0.1; // Adjust based on market volatility or strategy needs
var PremiumTarget = 100; // Example target premium from selling a call
var StrikeOffset = 50; // Offset from the current price for strike selection
int DaysToExpiration = 30; // Target days until expiration
// Initialize fuzzy logic settings - no changes needed here
void initFuzzyLogic() {
FuzzyRange = 0.1;
}
// Decision-making on whether to initiate an option combo trade
bool shouldSellCallOption(var currentPrice, var strikeOffset) {
// Selling a call option if the current price plus strikeOffset is fuzzy-above the current price
return fuzzy(aboveF(currentPrice + strikeOffset, currentPrice));
}
// Logic for closing position based on profit and days to expiration
bool shouldClosePosition(var tradeProfit, int daysToExpiration) {
var profitCondition = aboveF(tradeProfit, PremiumTarget);
var expirationCondition = belowF((var)daysToExpiration, 5.0); // Close if less than 5 days to expiration
return fuzzy(orF(profitCondition, expirationCondition));
}
void run() {
BarPeriod = 1440; // Use daily bars
LookBack = 0; // No need for historical bars in this strategy
StartDate = 2020;
EndDate = 2024;
assetList("AssetsIB");
asset("SPY");
AmericanOption = 1; // Trading American options
initFuzzyLogic();
if (!contractUpdate(Asset, 0, CALL)) return;
if (is(EXITRUN)) return;
// Decision to sell a call option
if (NumOpenShort == 0 && shouldSellCallOption(priceClose(0), StrikeOffset)) {
CONTRACT* CallContract = contractFind(CALL, DaysToExpiration, priceClose(0) + StrikeOffset);
if (CallContract) {
combo(CallContract, -1, 0, 0, 0, 0); // Prepare a combo to sell 1 call option
enterShort(comboLeg(1)); // Enter short position on the combo leg
}
}
// Loop through open trades to manage the position
for(open_trades) {
if (TradeIsOption && TradeIsShort && shouldClosePosition(TradeProfit, daysToExpiration())) {
exitTrade(ThisTrade); // Close the position based on fuzzy logic conditions
}
}
}
// You might need to implement or adjust the daysToExpiration function to suit your requirements
int daysToExpiration() {
// Implement logic to calculate days to expiration for the current option combo
return 10; // Placeholder return value
}
Selling Call Options Based on Trend: Sell call options when the underlying asset shows a strong upward trend, as indicated by a high value from risingF, implying that the price rise is consistent and may continue.
Closing Positions with Trend Reversals: Consider closing the call option positions when the asset's price starts showing a downward trend, as indicated by fallingF, suggesting a reversal or correction that might impact the strategy negatively.
Code
#include <contract.c>
vars PriceClose;
void run() {
BarPeriod = 1440; // Daily bars for trend analysis
LookBack = 30; // Looking back 30 bars for accurate trend detection
StartDate = 2020;
EndDate = 2024;
assetList("AssetsIB");
asset("SPY");
PriceClose = series(priceClose());
AmericanOption = 1; // Trading American Options
if (is(EXITRUN)) return; // Exit if at the end of the backtest
// Ensure the contract chain is updated for SPY
if (!contractUpdate(Asset, 0, CALL | PUT)) return;
// Entry Logic: Detect a rising trend to sell a call option
if (NumOpenLong + NumOpenShort == 0) { // Check if there's no open position
var trendStrength = risingF(PriceClose); // Assess the rising trend strength
if (trendStrength > 0.5) { // Threshold for a strong rising trend
// Define the strike price a bit above the current price for selling a call
var StrikeCall = priceClose(0) + 100; // Offset from the current price for the strike
int CallContract = contractFind(CALL, 45, StrikeCall); // Find a call option 45 days to expiration
if (CallContract >= 0) {
CONTRACT* c = contract(CallContract);
if (combo(c, -1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0) > 0) { // Prepare the combo for selling 1 call
enterShort(comboLeg(1)); // Enter short for the call option leg
}
}
}
}
// Exit Logic: Close the short call option position on a falling trend
for(open_trades) {
if (TradeIsOption && TradeIsShort) {
var reversalStrength = fallingF(PriceClose); // Assess the strength of the falling trend
if (reversalStrength > 0.5) { // Threshold indicating a strong downward trend
exitTrade(ThisTrade); // Close the call option position
}
}
}
}
Market Volatility: Determine the market's volatility to adjust the sensitivity of our fuzzy logic conditions. High volatility might require more stringent conditions to enter or exit a trade to avoid false signals.
Trend Confirmation: Use a combination of risingF and fallingF functions to confirm the strength and direction of the market trend.
Entry Condition: Enter a trade based on a confirmed upward trend or after a significant market bottom (valleyF), adjusted for market volatility.
Exit Condition: Exit a trade based on a confirmed downward trend or after a significant market peak (peakF), also adjusted for market volatility.
Code
#include <contract.c>
vars PriceClose;
var Volatility;
void initFuzzyLogicSettings() {
FuzzyRange = 0.05; // Adjust based on backtesting
}
var calculateVolatility(vars Data, int period) {
var sumDelta = 0;
for(int i = 1; i <= period; i++) {
sumDelta += abs(Data[i] - Data[i-1]);
}
return sumDelta / period;
}
var adjustFuzzyForVolatility(var fuzzyValue) {
var adjustmentFactor = 1 + Volatility * 10;
return clamp(fuzzyValue / adjustmentFactor, 0, 1);
}
bool fuzzyEntryCondition(vars Data) {
var entryFuzzy = max(risingF(Data), valleyF(Data));
return adjustFuzzyForVolatility(entryFuzzy) > 0.5;
}
bool fuzzyExitCondition(vars Data) {
var exitFuzzy = max(fallingF(Data), peakF(Data));
return adjustFuzzyForVolatility(exitFuzzy) > 0.5;
}
void optionComboTrade() {
CONTRACT* C1; // Define pointer for the first leg of the combo
CONTRACT* C2; // Define pointer for the second leg of the combo
// Dynamically adjust option strike based on current price and volatility
var strikeCall = round(priceClose(0) + 10 + Volatility * 5); // Example for call strike
var strikePut = round(priceClose(0) - 10 - Volatility * 5); // Example for put strike
// Initialize contracts for a strangle combo
C1 = contractFind(CALL, 30, strikeCall); // Find call option contract
C2 = contractFind(PUT, 30, strikePut); // Find put option contract
// Check if contracts are found and if entry condition is met
if(C1 && C2 && fuzzyEntryCondition(PriceClose)) {
combo(C1, 1, C2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0); // Create a strangle combo
enterLong(comboLeg(1)); // Enter long on both legs of the combo
enterLong(comboLeg(2));
}
}
void run() {
BarPeriod = 60;
LookBack = 100;
StartDate = 2020;
EndDate = 2024;
assetList("AssetsIB");
asset("SPY");
PriceClose = series(priceClose());
initFuzzyLogicSettings();
Volatility = calculateVolatility(PriceClose, 20); // Calculate market volatility
if (is(EXITRUN)) return;
optionComboTrade(); // Execute the option combo trade based on fuzzy logic conditions
}
The Following strategy calculates the EMA of ATR at the beginning of the run to establish a volatility baseline. It then iterates through selected assets (SPY, AAPL, MSFT), applying its entry and exit logic to each based on the current market conditions as interpreted through its fuzzy logic framework. Trades are made based on the composite fuzzy logic conditions, with the strategy entering long positions when the entry conditions are met and exiting positions when the exit conditions are met.
Code
#include <contract.c>
vars PriceClose, VolatilityEMA;
void init() {
assetList("AssetsIB");
BarPeriod = 60; // Setting bar period for the price series
LookBack = 100; // Lookback period for technical indicators
PriceClose = series(priceClose());
initFuzzyLogicSettings();
calculateEMAVolatility(20); // Initialize volatility calculation
}
void initFuzzyLogicSettings() {
FuzzyRange = 0.05; // Adjust based on backtesting
}
void calculateEMAVolatility(int period) {
vars ATRValues = series(ATR(period));
VolatilityEMA = series(EMA(ATRValues, period));
}
void tradeOptions() {
// Assuming current asset is SPY and we're setting up a strangle
if (NumOpenLong == 0 && fuzzyEntryCondition()) {
// Find contracts for the call and put options
CONTRACT* callContract = contractFind("Call", 30, priceClose(0) + 10); // Example: 30 days to expiration, strike 10 points above
CONTRACT* putContract = contractFind("Put", 30, priceClose(0) - 10); // Example: 30 days to expiration, strike 10 points below
if(callContract && putContract) {
// Setup the combo - buying 1 call and 1 put
combo(callContract, 1, putContract, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0);
// Enter the combo trade
enterLong(comboLeg(1)); // Enter long for the call option leg
enterLong(comboLeg(2)); // Enter long for the put option leg
printf("\nEntered a Strangle on SPY");
}
}
}
void run() {
StartDate = 2020;
EndDate = 2024;
assetList("AssetsIB");
asset("SPY");
while(asset(loop("SPY","AAPL","MSFT"))) {
if (is(EXITRUN)) continue;
tradeOptions();
}
}
The Following Strategy will Adapt to changing market conditions using both trend analysis and volatility measurements to inform trade decisions.
Risk Management: Incorporates measures of market volatility into trade decision processes, although explicit risk management tactics (e.g., position sizing, stop-loss orders) are not detailed within the provided summary.
Theoretical Pricing: Utilizes the Black-Scholes model for option valuation, aiding in the identification of potentially mispriced options, though the direct application of this pricing within the trade execution process is implied rather than explicitly defined.
Code
#include <contract.h>
// Initialize global variables for storing price and volatility data
vars PriceClose, VolatilityEMA;
void init() {
assetList("AssetsIB");
BarPeriod = 60;
LookBack = 100;
StartDate = 2020;
EndDate = 2024;
PriceClose = series(priceClose());
initFuzzyLogicSettings();
calculateEMAVolatility(20); // Initialize volatility calculation
}
void initFuzzyLogicSettings() {
FuzzyRange = 0.05; // Adjust based on backtesting
}
void calculateEMAVolatility(int period) {
vars ATRValues = series(ATR(period));
VolatilityEMA = series(EMA(ATRValues, period));
}
// Cumulative Normal Distribution Function for use in Black-Scholes Model
var CNDF(var x) {
int neg = (x < 0.0) ? 1 : 0;
if (neg) x = -x;
var k = (1.0 / ( 1.0 + 0.2316419 * x));
var y = (((1.330274429 * k - 1.821255978) * k + 1.781477937) *
k - 0.356563782) * k + 0.319381530;
y = 1.0 - 0.398942280401 * exp(-0.5 * x * x) * y;
return (1.0 - neg) * y + neg * (1.0 - y);
}
// Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model
var BlackScholes(char *CallPutFlag, var S, var X, var T, var r, var v) {
var d1, d2;
d1 = (log(S / X) + (r + 0.5 * v * v) * T) / (v * sqrt(T));
d2 = d1 - v * sqrt(T);
if (CallPutFlag[0] == 'c' || CallPutFlag[0] == 'C') {
return S * CNDF(d1) - X * exp(-r * T) * CNDF(d2);
} else {
return X * exp(-r * T) * CNDF(-d2) - S * CNDF(-d1);
}
}
bool fuzzyEntryCondition() {
return risingF(PriceClose) > 0.5 && VolatilityEMA[0] < 0.2;
}
bool fuzzyExitCondition() {
return fallingF(PriceClose) > 0.5 || VolatilityEMA[0] > 0.3;
}
void tradeOptions() {
CONTRACT* CallContract;
CONTRACT* PutContract;
var strikePrice = round(priceClose(0),100); // Example for rounding to nearest hundred
var expirationDays = 30; // Targeting options 30 days to expiration
if (fuzzyEntryCondition()) {
// Prepare to trade a call option
CallContract = contractFind("Call", strikePrice, wdate() + expirationDays * 86400);
if(CallContract) {
// Buy the call option
combo(CallContract, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0);
enterLong(comboLeg(1));
}
} else if (fuzzyExitCondition()) {
// Prepare to trade a put option
PutContract = contractFind("Put", strikePrice, wdate() + expirationDays * 86400);
if(PutContract) {
// Buy the put option
combo(0, 0, PutContract, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0);
enterLong(comboLeg(2));
}
}
}
void main() {
init();
while(asset(loop("Assets"))) {
if (is(EXITRUN)) continue;
tradeOptions(); // Execute the option trading logic based on market conditions
}
}
GPT-4 seems not to be the best choice when it comes to coding any longer. I'm developing code with Claude-3 Sonnet (free version), and it's really great. I need to itereate less often compared to GPT-4. It has 200.000 tokens context length and at least the biggest model (Claude-3 Opus) is told to have almost perfect recall capabilities. I found a way to access Claude-3 Opus from a restricted country: https://poe.com/ You can even build your custom GPTs there. I wonder, how you fed ChatGPT the knowledge about Zorro. Did you preprocess the manual, aka summarize it?
Thank you for sharing the information, I suppose that you need more input in order that GPT4 will focus on your intentions and get the right results, but running a free version needs a serious graphics card, and getting 40 questions in 3 hours is quite hard without computing power. I have a number of ideas on how to feed ChatGPT, but I am quite sure it is improving.
I believe there was a misunderstanding. The Claude3-Sonnet is hosted yet remains free of charge. However, it is not an open-source model. I was considering the possibility of integrating the entire manual into a custom GPT, but I wanted to consult with you first on how you managed to do it. Actually, I began exploring this concept several months ago and even developed a fine-tuned version of GPT-3.5 by converting the manual into question-answer pairs for the training dataset. It appears that this dataset was likely too small, leading me to abandon the fine-tuning process. It seems that retrieval-augmented generation might be the better approach.
Wow, that is great free use of LLM without paying for the service, I am quite sure, Claude3 is much better. But Custom Agents API is already coming out. Which will increase the accuracy of the answers.
In addition, I use Mathematica, and Wolfram with OpenAI, so Claude3 will not have any advantage in my case, But Thank you for sharing the information.
"I believe there was a misunderstanding. The Claude3-Sonnet is hosted yet remains free of charge. However, it is not an open-source model. I was considering the possibility of integrating the entire manual into a custom GPT, but I wanted to consult with you first on how you managed to do it. Actually, I began exploring this concept several months ago and even developed a fine-tuned version of GPT-3.5 by converting the manual into question-answer pairs for the training dataset. It appears that this dataset was likely too small, leading me to abandon the fine-tuning process. It seems that retrieval-augmented generation might be the better approach.
well, now I believe you, and I have started making some changes.
Following more factors of correlation, and Market sentiments, we can also include factor exposure, market capitalization, and industry data from various data sources on the web :
Code
#include <default.c>
var alpha, beta;
var filt, filttr, hband, lband;
vars PriceClose, GaussianFiltered, GaussianFilteredTR;
// Define additional factor variables
vars FactorExposure, MarketCap, IndustryData;
var beta0, betaFactor, betaMktCap, betaIndustry;
// Initialize factors for each time period
void initFactors() {
FactorExposure = series(0);
MarketCap = series(0);
IndustryData = series(0);
// Set coefficients based on your model or optimization
beta0 = 0.01;
betaFactor = 0.02;
betaMktCap = 0.03;
betaIndustry = 0.04;
}
void init() {
BarPeriod = 60; // 1-hour bars
LookBack = 144; // Lookback period for the Gaussian filter
PriceClose = series(priceClose());
GaussianFiltered = series(0);
GaussianFilteredTR = series(0);
alpha = calculateAlpha(144, 4); // Sampling Period and Poles
beta = (1 - cos(2 * PI / 144)) / (pow(1.414, 2 / 4) - 1);
initFactors();
}
var calculateAlpha(int period, int poles) {
var beta = (1 - cos(2 * PI / period)) / (pow(1.414, 2 / poles) - 1);
return -beta + sqrt(beta * beta + 2 * beta);
}
void calculateGaussianFilter(vars src, int poles, int period) {
vars filtSeries = series(0);
vars filtSeriesTR = series(0);
var lag = (period - 1) / (2 * poles);
vars srcData = series(0);
vars trData = series(0);
for(int i = 0; i < Bar; i++) {
if(i > lag) {
srcData[i] = src[i] + (src[i] - src[i - lag]);
trData[i] = TR() + (TR() - TR(lag));
} else {
srcData[i] = src[i];
trData[i] = TR();
}
}
for(int i = 0; i < Bar; i++) {
filtSeries[i] = filt9x(alpha, srcData[i], 1, poles);
filtSeriesTR[i] = filt9x(alpha, trData[i], 1, poles);
}
GaussianFiltered[0] = filtSeries[0];
GaussianFilteredTR[0] = filtSeriesTR[0];
hband = GaussianFiltered[0] + GaussianFilteredTR[0] * 1.414;
lband = GaussianFiltered[0] - GaussianFilteredTR[0] * 1.414;
}
var filt9x(var a, var s, int i, int poles) {
static vars f[10];
var x = 1 - a;
var filt = pow(a, i) * s + i * x * f[1] - (i >= 2 ? 36 * pow(x, 2) * f[2] : 0) + (i >= 3 ? 84 * pow(x, 3) * f[3] : 0)
- (i >= 4 ? 126 * pow(x, 4) * f[4] : 0) + (i >= 5 ? 126 * pow(x, 5) * f[5] : 0) - (i >= 6 ? 84 * pow(x, 6) * f[6] : 0)
+ (i >= 7 ? 36 * pow(x, 7) * f[7] : 0) - (i >= 8 ? 9 * pow(x, 8) * f[8] : 0) + (i == 9 ? 1 * pow(x, 9) * f[9] : 0);
for(int j = 9; j > 0; j--) {
f[j] = f[j - 1];
}
f[0] = filt;
return filt;
}
bool crossOver(vars data, var level) {
return (data[1] < level && data[0] >= level);
}
bool crossUnder(vars data, var level) {
return (data[1] > level && data[0] <= level);
}
// Predict returns based on factors
var predictReturn() {
var predictedReturn = beta0 + betaFactor * FactorExposure[0] + betaMktCap * MarketCap[0] + betaIndustry * IndustryData[0];
return predictedReturn;
}
void run() {
if(is(INITRUN)) {
init();
}
calculateGaussianFilter(PriceClose, 4, 144);
bool longCondition = crossOver(priceClose(), hband) && predictReturn() > 0;
bool closeAllCondition = crossUnder(priceClose(), hband) || predictReturn() < 0;
if (longCondition) {
enterLong();
}
if (closeAllCondition) {
exitLong();
}
}
This trading strategy leverages advanced signal processing and machine learning techniques to make informed trading decisions. We employ a Gaussian filter, which smooths the price series by reducing noise, and derive key indicators from it. These indicators include the filtered price and its bands, calculated by a non-recursive method. The signals are generated by comparing the filtered price to its bands, and identifying potential entry and exit points.
To enhance decision-making, we integrate a decision tree algorithm. This machine learning model is trained on historical signals, capturing complex patterns and relationships in the data. The model predicts future price movements, guiding long and short positions. By combining signal processing with machine learning, the strategy aims to exploit market inefficiencies and improve trading performance.
Code
#include <default.c>
// Variables
var alpha, beta;
var filt, filttr, hband, lband;
vars PriceClose, GaussianFiltered, GaussianFilteredTR;
vars UpperBand, LowerBand;
// Initialization
void init() {
BarPeriod = 60; // 1-hour bars
LookBack = 150; // Lookback period for the Gaussian filter
PriceClose = series(priceClose());
GaussianFiltered = series(0);
GaussianFilteredTR = series(0);
UpperBand = series(0);
LowerBand = series(0);
alpha = calculateAlpha(144, 4); // Sampling Period and Poles
beta = (1 - cos(2 * PI / 144)) / (pow(1.414, 2 / 4) - 1);
adviseLong(DTREE, 0, NULL, 0); // Initialize the Decision Tree model
}
// Calculate Alpha
var calculateAlpha(int period, int poles) {
var beta = (1 - cos(2 * PI / period)) / (pow(1.414, 2 / poles) - 1);
return -beta + sqrt(beta * beta + 2 * beta);
}
// Modified Gaussian Filter with Bands
var filt9x_with_bands(var a, var s, int poles, var deviationMultiplier, var* upperBand, var* lowerBand) {
static vars f[10]; // Array to store previous filter values
var x = 1 - a;
var filt = s * a;
// Precompute powers of x to avoid redundant calculations
var x2 = x * x;
var x3 = x2 * x;
var x4 = x3 * x;
var x5 = x4 * x;
var x6 = x5 * x;
var x7 = x6 * x;
var x8 = x7 * x;
var x9 = x8 * x;
// Calculate the filter value iteratively
for (int i = 1; i <= poles; i++) {
switch (i) {
case 1:
filt += x * f[i];
break;
case 2:
filt -= 36 * x2 * f[i];
break;
case 3:
filt += 84 * x3 * f[i];
break;
case 4:
filt -= 126 * x4 * f[i];
break;
case 5:
filt += 126 * x5 * f[i];
break;
case 6:
filt -= 84 * x6 * f[i];
break;
case 7:
filt += 36 * x7 * f[i];
break;
case 8:
filt -= 9 * x8 * f[i];
break;
case 9:
filt += x9 * f[i];
break;
}
}
// Shift the previous values in the array
for (int j = 9; j > 0; j--) {
f[j] = f[j - 1];
}
f[0] = filt;
// Calculate standard deviation of filter values
var sum = 0, mean = 0, count = 10;
for (int j = 0; j < count; j++) {
sum += f[j];
}
mean = sum / count;
var varianceSum = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < count; j++) {
varianceSum += (f[j] - mean) * (f[j] - mean);
}
var stddev = sqrt(varianceSum / count);
// Calculate upper and lower bands
*upperBand = filt + deviationMultiplier * stddev;
*lowerBand = filt - deviationMultiplier * stddev;
return filt;
}
// Gaussian Filter Calculation
void calculateGaussianFilter(vars src, int poles, int period) {
vars filtSeries = series(0);
vars filtSeriesTR = series(0);
var lag = (period - 1) / (2 * poles);
vars srcData = series(0);
vars trData = series(0);
for (int i = 0; i < Bar; i++) {
if (i > lag) {
srcData[i] = src[i] + (src[i] - src[i - lag]);
trData[i] = TR() + (TR() - TR(lag));
} else {
srcData[i] = src[i];
trData[i] = TR();
}
}
for (int i = 0; i < Bar; i++) {
var upper, lower;
filtSeries[i] = filt9x_with_bands(alpha, srcData[i], poles, 1.414, &upper, &lower);
filtSeriesTR[i] = filt9x_with_bands(alpha, trData[i], poles, 1.414, &upper, &lower);
UpperBand[i] = upper;
LowerBand[i] = lower;
}
GaussianFiltered[0] = filtSeries[0];
GaussianFilteredTR[0] = filtSeriesTR[0];
hband = UpperBand[0];
lband = LowerBand[0];
}
// Main Trading Logic
void run() {
BarPeriod = 60; // 1-hour bars
LookBack = 150; // Lookback period
TradesPerBar = 2;
if (Train) {
Hedge = 2; // Hedge during training
}
set(RULES | TESTNOW); // Set rules and test mode
if (is(INITRUN)) {
init();
}
calculateGaussianFilter(PriceClose, 4, 144);
// Generate some signals from GaussianFiltered in the -100..100 range
var Signals[2];
Signals[0] = (GaussianFiltered[0] - GaussianFilteredTR[0]) / PIP;
Signals[1] = 100 * FisherN(priceClose(), 100);
// Train and trade the signals using the decision tree model
if (adviseLong(DTREE, 0, Signals, 2) > 0)
enterLong();
if (adviseShort(DTREE, 0, Signals, 2) > 0)
enterShort();
}
The following is an optimized version of the Gaussian Filter Strategy, which includes Decision Trees, and Neural Networks to monitor error correction within the signals.
This code combines decision trees and neural networks to enhance previous versions of the implementation. It initializes and trains both models, uses Gaussian filters for signal processing, and employs a meta-model neural network to integrate their predictions for final trading actions, aiming to reduce errors and improve trading performance in a systematic, data-driven manner.
Code
#include <default.c>
// Variables
var alpha, beta;
var filt, filttr, hband, lband;
vars PriceClose, GaussianFiltered, GaussianFilteredTR;
vars UpperBand, LowerBand;
var Signals[2];
var MetaSignals[2]; // Signals for the meta-model
// Initialization
void init() {
BarPeriod = 60; // 1-hour bars
LookBack = 150; // Lookback period for the Gaussian filter
PriceClose = series(priceClose());
GaussianFiltered = series(0);
GaussianFilteredTR = series(0);
UpperBand = series(0);
LowerBand = series(0);
alpha = calculateAlpha(144, 4); // Sampling Period and Poles
beta = (1 - cos(2 * PI / 144)) / (pow(1.414, 2 / 4) - 1);
adviseLong(DTREE, 0, NULL, 0); // Initialize the Decision Tree model
adviseLong(NN, 0, NULL, 0); // Initialize the Neural Network model
adviseLong(NN, 1, NULL, 0); // Initialize the Meta-Model Neural Network
}
// Calculate Alpha
var calculateAlpha(int period, int poles) {
var beta = (1 - cos(2 * PI / period)) / (pow(1.414, 2 / poles) - 1);
return -beta + sqrt(beta * beta + 2 * beta);
}
// Optimized Gaussian Filter with Bands
var filt9x_with_bands(var a, var s, int poles, var deviationMultiplier, var* upperBand, var* lowerBand) {
static vars f[10]; // Array to store previous filter values
var x = 1 - a;
var filt = s * a;
// Precompute powers of x to avoid redundant calculations
var x_powers[10];
x_powers[1] = x;
for (int i = 2; i <= 9; i++) {
x_powers[i] = x_powers[i - 1] * x;
}
// Calculate the filter value iteratively
var coefficients[10] = {0, 1, -36, 84, -126, 126, -84, 36, -9, 1};
for (int i = 1; i <= poles; i++) {
filt += coefficients[i] * x_powers[i] * f[i];
}
// Shift the previous values in the array
for (int j = 9; j > 0; j--) {
f[j] = f[j - 1];
}
f[0] = filt;
// Calculate mean and variance in a single pass
var sum = 0, varianceSum = 0, count = 10;
for (int j = 0; j < count; j++) {
sum += f[j];
}
var mean = sum / count;
for (int j = 0; j < count; j++) {
varianceSum += (f[j] - mean) * (f[j] - mean);
}
var stddev = sqrt(varianceSum / count);
// Calculate upper and lower bands
*upperBand = filt + deviationMultiplier * stddev;
*lowerBand = filt - deviationMultiplier * stddev;
return filt;
}
// Gaussian Filter Calculation
void calculateGaussianFilter(vars src, int poles, int period) {
vars filtSeries = series(0);
vars filtSeriesTR = series(0);
var lag = (period - 1) / (2 * poles);
vars srcData = series(0);
vars trData = series(0);
for (int i = 0; i < Bar; i++) {
if (i > lag) {
srcData[i] = src[i] + (src[i] - src[i - lag]);
trData[i] = TR() + (TR() - TR(lag));
} else {
srcData[i] = src[i];
trData[i] = TR();
}
}
for (int i = 0; i < Bar; i++) {
var upper, lower;
filtSeries[i] = filt9x_with_bands(alpha, srcData[i], poles, 1.414, &upper, &lower);
filtSeriesTR[i] = filt9x_with_bands(alpha, trData[i], poles, 1.414, &upper, &lower);
UpperBand[i] = upper;
LowerBand[i] = lower;
}
GaussianFiltered[0] = filtSeries[0];
GaussianFilteredTR[0] = filtSeriesTR[0];
hband = UpperBand[0];
lband = LowerBand[0];
}
// Meta-Model for Combining Predictions using Neural Network
var metaModel(var dtreePrediction, var nnPrediction) {
MetaSignals[0] = dtreePrediction;
MetaSignals[1] = nnPrediction;
return advise(NN, 1, MetaSignals, 2); // Use another neural network (NN) model as meta-model
}
// Main Trading Logic
void run() {
BarPeriod = 60; // 1-hour bars
LookBack = 150; // Lookback period
TradesPerBar = 2;
if (Train) {
Hedge = 2; // Hedge during training
}
set(RULES | TESTNOW); // Set rules and test mode
if (is(INITRUN)) {
init();
}
calculateGaussianFilter(PriceClose, 4, 144);
// Generate some signals from GaussianFiltered in the -100..100 range
Signals[0] = (GaussianFiltered[0] - GaussianFilteredTR[0]) / PIP;
Signals[1] = 100 * FisherN(priceClose(), 100);
// Train and trade the signals using decision tree and neural network models
var dtreePrediction = advise(DTREE, 0, Signals, 2);
var nnPrediction = advise(NN, 0, Signals, 2);
var finalDecision = metaModel(dtreePrediction, nnPrediction);
if (finalDecision > 0)
enterLong();
else if (finalDecision < 0)
enterShort();
else {
if (isLong()) exitLong();
if (isShort()) exitShort();
}
}
I must confess, my fascination with automation knows no bounds. While resolving coding problems can be a daunting task, the correct implementation of automation can significantly simplify much of this work.
Imagine the incredible efficiency we could achieve by quickly resolving problems and eliminating the need for error corrections in our code. This would not only save us time but also enrich our lives by allowing us to focus on more creative and fulfilling pursuits.
It's true that addressing errors in automated code generation can be a slow process. However, developing and debugging code manually without automation demands just as much effort and time.
My enthusiasm for automation is matched by my eagerness to share its benefits with others. Please forgive my insistence, but I wholeheartedly encourage you to embrace automation as I have. Together, we can transform our manual trading tasks into streamlined, automated solutions. :-) Hahahah!
I surely, will need to many errors, in my code, But if anyone, feels like sharing any solutions, or ideas, please do.
Let me give you an example of answers from ZorroGPT:
Train the PyTorch Model Separately First, you’ll use PyTorch to train your DRL model based on historical data. After training, save the model so Zorro can use it for predictions.
Code
import torch
from torch import nn, optim
# Example DRL Model (Adjust according to your architecture)
class TradingModel(nn.Module):
def __init__(self):
super(TradingModel, self).__init__()
self.fc1 = nn.Linear(NumSignals, Neurons)
self.relu = nn.ReLU()
self.fc2 = nn.Linear(Neurons, 1)
self.sigmoid = nn.Sigmoid()
def forward(self, x):
x = self.relu(self.fc1(x))
x = self.sigmoid(self.fc2(x))
return x
# Training function
def train_model(data_path, model_save_path):
data = np.loadtxt(data_path, delimiter=',') # Load data from CSV
X, y = data[:, :-1], data[:, -1]
X = torch.tensor(X, dtype=torch.float32)
y = torch.tensor(y, dtype=torch.float32).view(-1, 1)
model = TradingModel()
criterion = nn.BCELoss()
optimizer = optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=Rate)
for epoch in range(Epochs):
optimizer.zero_grad()
predictions = model(X)
loss = criterion(predictions, y)
loss.backward()
optimizer.step()
# Save model for use in Zorro
torch.save(model.state_dict(), model_save_path)
Train the model on your historical data and save it:
Code
train_model("Data/Signals.csv", "model.pth")
2. Load and Use the Model in Zorro is possible but with different code: Since Zorro cannot directly run PyTorch, you’ll need to create a separate Python script (e.g., predict.py) that:
Loads the trained model. Receives data from Zorro for predictions. Outputs the prediction results back to Zorro.
Code
import torch
import numpy as np
from TradingModel import TradingModel # Import your model class
# Initialize model
model = TradingModel()
model.load_state_dict(torch.load("model.pth")) # Load saved model
model.eval() # Set model to evaluation mode
def predict(input_data):
input_tensor = torch.tensor(input_data, dtype=torch.float32)
with torch.no_grad():
prediction = model(input_tensor)
return prediction.item()
# Example usage for testing
# Replace [0.5, 1.2, -0.7, ...] with real data passed from Zorro
print(predict([0.5, 1.2, -0.7, ...])) # Output a prediction for testing
3. Integrate Prediction with Zorro in lite-C Code In your Zorro script, the neural function will send input data to predict.py, retrieve the prediction result, and make trading decisions based on this prediction. To link Zorro with Python, you’ll use Zorro’s Rx() function to run the predict.py script and get the result back.
Code
function run()
{
vars InputData = series(priceClose());
double Data[NumSignals];
for(int i = 0; i < NumSignals; i++)
Data[i] = InputData[i]; // Gather recent data for model input
// Save input data to CSV format expected by predict.py
file_write("Data\\input_data.csv", Data, 0);
// Call Python predict script and retrieve prediction
Rx("Y <- predict('Data/input_data.csv')");
var prediction = Rd("Y[1]"); // Assuming Y[1] holds the prediction result
// Based on prediction, send buy or sell order
if(prediction > 0.5)
enterLong(); // Buy if prediction is above 0.5 threshold
else
enterShort(); // Sell if prediction is 0.5 or below
}
Now, there might be some errors, which you will need to ask ZorroGPT how do resolve them, let me assure you that it took me at least 40-80 exchanges of error handling to create the Gaussian Band indicator, of which I am still not sure the values are working properly in all time frames.
Zorro can indeed use PyTorch directly if you configure it to run Python scripts through the pynet.cpp interface. This method allows you to train and use a PyTorch model directly from Zorro without needing to write a separate data passing script. Here’s how to do it using Zorro’s pynet.cpp and a Python script with PyTorch:
Install Required Python Libraries:
Make sure you have Python 64-bit installed. Install the necessary libraries by running:
Code
pip3 install torch numpy math
Open Zorro.ini and set the PythonPath64 variable to the path of your Python installation. For example:
In the same directory as your Zorro script, create a Python file with the same name as your Zorro strategy file, but with a .py extension (e.g., if your Zorro script is MyStrategy.c, name the Python file MyStrategy.py). This Python script will contain the PyTorch model, functions for prediction, and optionally for training.
Code
import torch
import torch.nn as nn
import numpy as np
class TradingModel(nn.Module):
def __init__(self, input_size, hidden_size):
super(TradingModel, self).__init__()
self.fc1 = nn.Linear(input_size, hidden_size)
self.relu = nn.ReLU()
self.fc2 = nn.Linear(hidden_size, 1)
self.sigmoid = nn.Sigmoid()
def forward(self, x):
x = self.relu(self.fc1(x))
x = self.sigmoid(self.fc2(x))
return x
# Initialize the model with input size and hidden layer size
model = TradingModel(input_size=8, hidden_size=256) # Adjust based on your input features
# Load trained model weights if available
try:
model.load_state_dict(torch.load("model.pth"))
model.eval()
except FileNotFoundError:
print("Model weights file not found. Train the model first.")
def predict(input_data):
input_tensor = torch.tensor(input_data, dtype=torch.float32)
with torch.no_grad():
prediction = model(input_tensor)
return prediction.item()
Using pynet.cpp to Call Python from Zorro: pynet.cpp allows Zorro to call Python functions, making it possible to run PyTorch directly for predictions. To use the model in Zorro, write the lite-C code that sends data to predict in your Python script, fetches the result, and executes trades based on the output.
Code
function run()
{
vars InputData = series(priceClose());
double Data[8]; // Adjust based on your input features
for(int i = 0; i < 8; i++)
Data[i] = InputData[i]; // Gather recent data for model input
// Call the predict function in MyStrategy.py
python("Y = predict", Data, 8); // Sends data to the Python function `predict`
var prediction = python("Y"); // Retrieve the prediction result from Python
// Trade decision based on prediction
if(prediction > 0.5) enterLong();
else enterShort();
}
Compile and Run with Zorro: Use the 64-bit version of Zorro to run this script, as pynet.cpp requires a 64-bit Python setup. This setup calls the predict function in the MyStrategy.py script, passing Data as input, and receives Y, which is used to decide whether to enter a long or short position. Explanation of the Code Zorro’s python() Command: python() is used to send and retrieve data between Zorro and Python. Trade Logic: Based on the prediction returned by python("Y"), the script enters a long or short position. Model Reusability: You can save and load the trained model in the Python script, so Zorro will use the latest saved model for predictions. This setup provides a clean integration that allows Zorro to use a PyTorch model directly for predictions without needing extra data transfer scripts.
Please note : these scripts are 80% logical and need to be refined so that it will work well. While deeper experimentation is always needed to make a trading strategy perfect.
It’s possible to pass the live data feed from Zorro Trader directly to a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) model without having to call a function from Zorro each time. This can be achieved by running the DRL model in a separate Python script or process that continuously ingests the live data from Zorro in real-time, allowing it to learn and adapt independently. Here’s how to set this up:
Steps to Integrate Zorro’s Live Feed Directly into a DRL Model Set Up a Data Stream from Zorro to Python:
Configure Zorro to save live market data into a continuously updated file or to use an inter-process communication (IPC) method, such as sockets or shared memory, to feed data into the Python DRL model. Run the DRL Model as an Independent Python Process:
Implement the DRL model in a standalone Python script that continuously reads data from the Zorro feed and performs training in real-time. The DRL model can process the data asynchronously and make trading decisions based on updated observations. Implement Communication Back to Zorro for Trade Execution:
When the DRL model decides on a trade action, it can communicate this action back to Zorro, which will execute the trade.
Implementation Options Option 1: Data Streaming Using File I/O Zorro Script for Writing Data Feed:
Modify the Zorro run function to write the latest market data to a CSV file (e.g., live_data.csv) at each bar interval.
Code
function run()
{
vars InputData = series(priceClose()); // Example data series
// Save data to CSV file for the DRL model
file_write("Data/live_data.csv", InputData, 0);
// Execute trades based on external signals
var signal = file_read("Data/drl_signal.txt"); // Read DRL action signal
if (signal > 0.5)
enterLong();
else if (signal <= 0.5)
enterShort();
}
Python DRL Script (Independent Process):
In a separate Python script, the DRL model continuously monitors live_data.csv for new data and updates its learning and action policy accordingly.
Code
import torch
import numpy as np
import time
from model import TradingModel # Define your model in model.py
model = TradingModel(input_size=8, hidden_size=256)
optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=0.001)
criterion = torch.nn.BCELoss()
def train_model(input_data, target):
model.train()
input_tensor = torch.tensor(input_data, dtype=torch.float32)
target_tensor = torch.tensor([target], dtype=torch.float32)
optimizer.zero_grad()
prediction = model(input_tensor)
loss = criterion(prediction, target_tensor)
loss.backward()
optimizer.step()
return loss.item()
while True:
# Read the latest data from live_data.csv
try:
data = np.loadtxt("Data/live_data.csv", delimiter=',')
input_data = data[-1] # Get the most recent row of data
prediction = model(torch.tensor(input_data, dtype=torch.float32)).item()
# Save the action decision back to a file that Zorro reads
with open("Data/drl_signal.txt", "w") as f:
f.write("1" if prediction > 0.5 else "0") # Save the signal for Zorro
# Optionally train model with feedback (e.g., profit from the last trade)
# target = get_trade_feedback() # You may define a function to get trade results
# train_model(input_data, target)
except Exception as e:
print(f"Error reading data or training model: {e}")
time.sleep(1) # Polling interval, adjust based on data frequency
Option 2: Using Sockets for Real-Time Data Streaming Set Up a Socket Server in the Python DRL Script:
Run a socket server in Python to continuously receive data from Zorro and send back trade actions.
Code
import socket
import torch
import numpy as np
from model import TradingModel
model = TradingModel(input_size=8, hidden_size=256)
# Initialize socket server
HOST = 'localhost'
PORT = 65432
server = socket.socket(socket.AF_INET, socket.SOCK_STREAM)
server.bind((HOST, PORT))
server.listen()
print("Waiting for Zorro connection...")
conn, addr = server.accept()
print(f"Connected by {addr}")
while True:
data = conn.recv(1024) # Adjust buffer size as needed
if not data:
break
# Convert data to numpy array
input_data = np.frombuffer(data, dtype=np.float32)
# Make a prediction
prediction = model(torch.tensor(input_data)).item()
# Send decision to Zorro
decision = b'1' if prediction > 0.5 else b'0'
conn.sendall(decision)
Modify the Zorro Script to Send Data via Socket:
In the Zorro script, connect to the Python socket server to send live data and receive the model’s action signal.
Code
function run()
{
vars InputData = series(priceClose());
double Data[NumSignals];
for(int i = 0; i < NumSignals; i++)
Data[i] = InputData[i];
// Send data to Python via socket
int socket = socket_connect("localhost", 65432);
if (socket != 0) {
socket_send(socket, Data, sizeof(Data)); // Send data
int action = socket_receive(socket); // Receive action decision
socket_close(socket);
// Act on received decision
if (action == '1')
enterLong();
else if (action == '0')
enterShort();
}
}
By running the DRL model as an independent process, it can continuously learn and adapt from real-time data while only sending trade decisions back to Zorro for execution. This setup provides the flexibility to train the DRL model in live environments without interrupting Zorro’s main trading operations.
In the Zorro platform, socket-based networking functions like socket_connect, socket_send, and socket_receive are not built-in, as Zorro’s lite-C scripting language does not natively support socket programming. However, you can achieve socket communication in Zorro using DLLs (Dynamic Link Libraries) to bridge between Zorro and Python for real-time data feeds.
Steps to Set Up Socket Communication Between Zorro and Python Using a DLL Create a C/C++ Socket DLL:
Write a C/C++ library that implements socket functions (connect, send, receive, close). Compile the library into a DLL that Zorro can load and call directly from the lite-C script. Use the DLL in Zorro:
Load the DLL in your Zorro script. Use the DLL functions to send data to and receive data from a Python socket server. Example of a Simple C/C++ Socket DLL Here’s a minimal example to create a C++ DLL for socket communication. This example provides functions for connecting, sending, receiving, and closing a socket.
C++ Socket DLL Code Save this file as SocketDLL.cpp, and then compile it into a DLL.
Explanation: socket_connect: Connects to the given IP and port. socket_send: Sends data through the connected socket. socket_receive: Receives data from the socket into a buffer. socket_close: Closes the socket and cleans up resources. Compile the DLL Use a C++ compiler, like Microsoft Visual Studio, to compile this code into a DLL (e.g., SocketDLL.dll). Ensure it’s a 64-bit DLL if you’re using the 64-bit version of Zorro.
Zorro Script to Use the DLL Place the compiled DLL (SocketDLL.dll) in the same directory as your Zorro script. Use the DLL functions in your Zorro script to connect, send, and receive data. Zorro lite-C Script Example
Code
function run()
{
// Load the socket DLL
int connect_result = call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_connect", "localhost", 65432);
if (connect_result == 0) {
printf("\nConnected to socket.");
// Example data to send
double data[8] = { 1.2, 2.3, 3.4, 4.5, 5.6, 6.7, 7.8, 8.9 };
call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_send", data, sizeof(data));
// Buffer for receiving data
char buffer[8];
int bytes_received = call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_receive", buffer, sizeof(buffer));
if (bytes_received > 0) {
printf("\nReceived data: %s", buffer); // Example printout
}
// Close the socket connection
call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_close");
} else {
printf("\nFailed to connect to socket.");
}
}
Explanation of the Zorro Script call() Function: This function is used to call functions from the DLL in Zorro. call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_connect", "localhost", 65432) connects to the Python server running on localhost at port 65432. call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_send", data, sizeof(data)) sends the data array to the Python server. call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_receive", buffer, sizeof(buffer)) receives data from the server into the buffer. call("SocketDLL.dll", "socket_close") closes the socket connection. Python Socket Server to Receive Data from Zorro
Code
import socket
HOST = 'localhost'
PORT = 65432
server = socket.socket(socket.AF_INET, socket.SOCK_STREAM)
server.bind((HOST, PORT))
server.listen()
print("Server listening...")
conn, addr = server.accept()
print(f"Connected by {addr}")
while True:
data = conn.recv(1024)
if not data:
break
print("Received data:", data)
# Send response
response = b"1" # For example, send a '1' signal for buy
conn.sendall(response)
conn.close()
One important note for all traders and programmers, As previously noted, we all want final solutions without having any bugs, scripts that are unlogical, and hard-to-understand code, but the whole point of these examples, it to learn to use ZorroGPT and find faster solutions for your imaginations.
To leverage Zorro Trader’s efficient, event-driven structure for managing a multi-agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) model setup, we can design the system to optimize computational speed and real-time trade execution while leaving the resource-intensive training to Python. Here’s an approach that maximizes Zorro's fast computation for managing multi-agent DRL models.
Key Principles for Zorro’s Role in Multi-Agent Management Separation of Prediction and Training:
Zorro handles trade execution and prediction requests, which are computationally light and can run at high frequency. The heavier tasks—training and tuning the DRL models—are handled by Python independently, reducing Zorro’s load and keeping trade execution highly responsive. Socket Communication for Real-Time Data Transfer:
Zorro communicates with Python via a socket connection, sending real-time data for each agent and receiving predictions. This eliminates I/O delays from file reads and writes, allowing Zorro to request predictions instantly and act on them immediately. Dynamic and Concurrent Agent Management:
Zorro uses its fast computational ability to request predictions concurrently across multiple agents and assets. It can trigger trade decisions for several agents in parallel, enabling highly responsive multi-asset or multi-strategy trading. Implementation Strategy Here’s how to set up Zorro to manage multiple agents effectively:
Zorro: Efficient, Concurrent Data Handling and Trade Execution Python: Dedicated, Asynchronous Training with Real-Time Prediction Server Step-by-Step Code Structure 1. Python Socket Server Code (Handling Multi-Agent Predictions and Training) In Python, we set up a socket server that:
Listens for data requests from Zorro. Uses pre-trained models to make quick predictions. Runs training processes in the background asynchronously, ensuring it can respond to prediction requests without delay.
Code
import socket
import torch
import numpy as np
from model import TradingModel # Assume TradingModel is defined appropriately
# Initialize models and load them if available
agents = {
"EURUSD": TradingModel(input_size=5, hidden_layers=2, neurons_per_layer=64),
"GBPUSD": TradingModel(input_size=5, hidden_layers=2, neurons_per_layer=64),
"EURGBP": TradingModel(input_size=5, hidden_layers=2, neurons_per_layer=64)
}
for name, model in agents.items():
try:
model.load_state_dict(torch.load(f"{name}_model.pth"))
model.eval()
except FileNotFoundError:
print(f"No saved model found for {name}, starting fresh.")
# Start a socket server to handle prediction requests
HOST = 'localhost'
PORT = 65432
server = socket.socket(socket.AF_INET, socket.SOCK_STREAM)
server.bind((HOST, PORT))
server.listen()
print("Waiting for Zorro connection...")
conn, addr = server.accept()
print(f"Connected by {addr}")
while True:
data = conn.recv(1024)
if not data:
break
try:
# Parse data to identify agent and extract feature inputs
data_str = data.decode().split(',')
agent_name = data_str[0]
input_data = np.array(data_str[1:], dtype=np.float32)
# Make a prediction if the agent exists
if agent_name in agents:
model = agents[agent_name]
input_tensor = torch.tensor(input_data, dtype=torch.float32)
with torch.no_grad():
prediction = model(input_tensor).item()
decision = '1' if prediction > 0.5 else '0'
else:
decision = '0' # Default action if agent is unrecognized
# Send the prediction decision back to Zorro
conn.sendall(decision.encode())
except Exception as e:
print(f"Error processing request: {e}")
break
conn.close()
2. Zorro Code with Socket Communication and Concurrent Agent Management In Zorro, we:
Use a single socket_connect for each agent. Request predictions concurrently and execute trades immediately after receiving each prediction.
Code
function run()
{
// Define data feeds for each pair
double EURUSD_Data[5] = { priceHigh(), priceLow(), priceClose(), priceOpen(), Vol() };
double GBPUSD_Data[5] = { priceHigh(), priceLow(), priceClose(), priceOpen(), Vol() };
double EURGBP_Data[5] = { priceHigh(), priceLow(), priceClose(), priceOpen(), Vol() };
// Connect to Python server
int socket = socket_connect("localhost", 65432);
if (socket == 0) {
printf("\nFailed to connect to Python socket.");
return;
}
// Agent 1: EURUSD - Send data and get prediction
string eurusd_data_str = strf("EURUSD,%f,%f,%f,%f,%f", EURUSD_Data[0], EURUSD_Data[1], EURUSD_Data[2], EURUSD_Data[3], EURUSD_Data[4]);
socket_send(socket, eurusd_data_str, strlen(eurusd_data_str));
char buffer[2];
int bytes_received = socket_receive(socket, buffer, sizeof(buffer));
if (bytes_received > 0 && buffer[0] == '1')
enterLong("EURUSD");
else
enterShort("EURUSD");
// Agent 2: GBPUSD - Send data and get prediction
string gbpusd_data_str = strf("GBPUSD,%f,%f,%f,%f,%f", GBPUSD_Data[0], GBPUSD_Data[1], GBPUSD_Data[2], GBPUSD_Data[3], GBPUSD_Data[4]);
socket_send(socket, gbpusd_data_str, strlen(gbpusd_data_str));
bytes_received = socket_receive(socket, buffer, sizeof(buffer));
if (bytes_received > 0 && buffer[0] == '1')
enterLong("GBPUSD");
else
enterShort("GBPUSD");
// Agent 3: EURGBP - Send data and get prediction
string eurgbp_data_str = strf("EURGBP,%f,%f,%f,%f,%f", EURGBP_Data[0], EURGBP_Data[1], EURGBP_Data[2], EURGBP_Data[3], EURGBP_Data[4]);
socket_send(socket, eurgbp_data_str, strlen(eurgbp_data_str));
bytes_received = socket_receive(socket, buffer, sizeof(buffer));
if (bytes_received > 0 && buffer[0] == '1')
enterLong("EURGBP");
else
enterShort("EURGBP");
// Close socket connection
socket_close(socket);
}
Explanation of the Zorro Code Concurrent Data Handling:
Zorro gathers data for each agent and sends it independently over the socket. Each agent’s prediction is received immediately, and trades are executed without waiting for other predictions. Direct Trade Execution:
Based on the prediction received from Python, Zorro immediately triggers a Long or Short position for each currency pair. This approach leverages Zorro’s fast computation for rapid trade decisions, as the time-consuming training process is handled asynchronously by Python. Benefits of This Setup Parallel Prediction Requests:
Each agent’s data is processed individually, allowing predictions to be handled concurrently. Zorro executes trades immediately, maximizing the benefit of fast computation. Efficient Use of Resources:
Training is handled asynchronously by Python, while Zorro focuses purely on trade execution and prediction requests. The socket communication enables real-time data exchange, ensuring Zorro’s high-frequency capabilities are fully utilized. Scalable to More Agents:
Adding new agents is straightforward: simply expand the data gathering and prediction request handling sections in both Zorro and Python, as each agent operates independently in this setup. By separating Zorro’s fast execution from Python’s computational load, this setup achieves efficient multi-agent management, ensuring real-time responsiveness and scalability.
The Correlation Web A web of nodes (Nâ‚, Nâ‚‚, ..., N₆) is interconnected, where each edge (Eᵢⱼ) between nodes Náµ¢ and Nâ±¼ has a weight representing their correlation coefficient. The weights are given as follows:
Find the subset of nodes (clusters) such that the average weight of edges within each cluster is maximized. Ensure that no node is part of more than one cluster.
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars CorrelationMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Correlation adjacency matrix
vars ArbitrageMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Arbitrage adjacency matrix
int StateMatrix[PAIRS][3][3]; // Transition matrix for each pair
int LookBack = 200; // Lookback period for calculations
// Function to calculate correlation between two series
function calculateCorrelation(vars series1, vars series2, int len) {
var mean1 = SMA(series1, len);
var mean2 = SMA(series2, len);
var numerator = 0, denom1 = 0, denom2 = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < len; i++) {
numerator += (series1[i] - mean1) * (series2[i] - mean2);
denom1 += pow(series1[i] - mean1, 2);
denom2 += pow(series2[i] - mean2, 2);
}
return numerator / sqrt(denom1 * denom2);
}
// Initialize the correlation network
function initializeCorrelationNetwork() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
vars series1 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[i]));
vars series2 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = calculateCorrelation(series1, series2, LookBack);
} else {
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = 1; // Self-correlation
}
}
}
}
// Calculate arbitrage opportunities between pairs
function calculateArbitrage() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = log(price(CurrencyPairs[i]) / price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
} else {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = 0; // No arbitrage within the same pair
}
}
}
}
// Detect arbitrage cycles using a Bellman-Ford-like algorithm
function detectArbitrageCycles() {
for (int k = 0; k < PAIRS; k++) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][k] + ArbitrageMatrix[k][j] < ArbitrageMatrix[i][j]) {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = ArbitrageMatrix[i][k] + ArbitrageMatrix[k][j];
}
}
}
}
}
// Get the current market state for a currency pair
function getState(string pair) {
var fastMA = SMA(series(price(pair)), 50);
var slowMA = SMA(series(price(pair)), 200);
if (fastMA > slowMA) return 1; // Bull
else if (fastMA < slowMA) return -1; // Bear
return 0; // Sideways
}
// Update the state transition matrix
function updateStateTransition(int pairIndex) {
int currentState = getState(CurrencyPairs[pairIndex]);
int lastState = StateMatrix[pairIndex][2]; // Store last state
StateMatrix[pairIndex][lastState + 1][currentState + 1]++;
StateMatrix[pairIndex][2] = currentState; // Update last state
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Initialize networks
initializeCorrelationNetwork();
calculateArbitrage();
// Update state transitions for each pair
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
updateStateTransition(i);
}
// Example: Trade when arbitrage is detected
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] > 0.01) { // Arbitrage threshold
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[j]);
}
}
}
}
Arbitrage Cycle Mystery Imagine a trading system with 5 currency pairs (Pâ‚, Pâ‚‚, P₃, Pâ‚„, Pâ‚…). Each pair has a profit factor (PFᵢⱼ) when moving from pair Páµ¢ to pair Pâ±¼. The profit factors are given in a directed graph:
Find the cycle of pairs that maximizes the product of profit factors (PF₠× PF₂ × PF₃ × ...). Ensure the cycle returns to the starting pair.
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars CorrelationMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Correlation adjacency matrix
vars ArbitrageMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Arbitrage adjacency matrix
vars RiskMatrix[PAIRS]; // Risk matrix for each pair (e.g., volatility)
int StateMatrix[PAIRS][3][3]; // Transition matrix for each pair
vars PortfolioWeights[PAIRS]; // Optimized portfolio weights
int LookBack = 200; // Lookback period for calculations
// Function to calculate correlation between two series
function calculateCorrelation(vars series1, vars series2, int len) {
var mean1 = SMA(series1, len);
var mean2 = SMA(series2, len);
var numerator = 0, denom1 = 0, denom2 = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < len; i++) {
numerator += (series1[i] - mean1) * (series2[i] - mean2);
denom1 += pow(series1[i] - mean1, 2);
denom2 += pow(series2[i] - mean2, 2);
}
return numerator / sqrt(denom1 * denom2);
}
// Initialize the correlation network
function initializeCorrelationNetwork() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
vars series1 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[i]));
vars series2 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = calculateCorrelation(series1, series2, LookBack);
} else {
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = 1; // Self-correlation
}
}
}
}
// Calculate arbitrage opportunities between pairs
function calculateArbitrage() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = log(price(CurrencyPairs[i]) / price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
} else {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = 0; // No arbitrage within the same pair
}
}
}
}
// Calculate risk for each pair (volatility-based)
function calculateRiskMatrix() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
RiskMatrix[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i])), LookBack);
}
}
// Optimize portfolio weights based on risk and correlation
function optimizePortfolio() {
var TotalWeight = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
PortfolioWeights[i] = 1 / RiskMatrix[i]; // Risk-based weighting
TotalWeight += PortfolioWeights[i];
}
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
PortfolioWeights[i] /= TotalWeight; // Normalize weights
}
}
// Detect arbitrage cycles using a Bellman-Ford-like algorithm
function detectArbitrageCycles() {
for (int k = 0; k < PAIRS; k++) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][k] + ArbitrageMatrix[k][j] < ArbitrageMatrix[i][j]) {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = ArbitrageMatrix[i][k] + ArbitrageMatrix[k][j];
}
}
}
}
}
// Get the current market state for a currency pair
function getState(string pair) {
var fastMA = SMA(series(price(pair)), 50);
var slowMA = SMA(series(price(pair)), 200);
if (fastMA > slowMA) return 1; // Bull
else if (fastMA < slowMA) return -1; // Bear
return 0; // Sideways
}
// Update the state transition matrix
function updateStateTransition(int pairIndex) {
int currentState = getState(CurrencyPairs[pairIndex]);
int lastState = StateMatrix[pairIndex][2]; // Store last state
StateMatrix[pairIndex][lastState + 1][currentState + 1]++;
StateMatrix[pairIndex][2] = currentState; // Update last state
}
// Execute trades based on portfolio weights and arbitrage opportunities
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] > 0.01) { // Arbitrage threshold
var WeightI = PortfolioWeights[i];
var WeightJ = PortfolioWeights[j];
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i], WeightI); // Weighted trade
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[j], WeightJ); // Weighted trade
}
}
}
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Initialize all networks and matrices
initializeCorrelationNetwork();
calculateArbitrage();
calculateRiskMatrix();
optimizePortfolio();
// Update state transitions for each pair
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
updateStateTransition(i);
}
// Execute trades based on analysis
executeTrades();
}
You are given a directed weighted graph ðº=(ð‘‰,ð¸) where: 𑉠represents currency pairs (e.g., EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc.). ð¸ represents the relationships between the currency pairs (e.g., price ratios, arbitrage opportunities). Each edge ð‘’(ð‘–,ð‘—) between nodes ð‘£ð‘– and ð‘£ð‘— has a weight ð‘¤(ð‘–,ð‘—) representing the logarithm of the price ratio between ð‘£ð‘– and ð‘£ð‘—.
Problem: The graph ðº is time-dependent. At each time step ð‘¡, the edge weights ð‘¤(ð‘–,ð‘—,ð‘¡) change according to a function:
ð‘¤(ð‘–,ð‘—,ð‘¡) = log(ð‘ƒð‘–(ð‘¡)ð‘ƒð‘—(ð‘¡))−Δ(ð‘–,ð‘—,ð‘¡) where: ð‘ƒð‘–(ð‘¡) and ð‘ƒð‘—(ð‘¡) are the prices of ð‘£ð‘– and ð‘£ð‘— at time ð‘¡. Δ(ð‘–,ð‘—,ð‘¡) is a dynamic threshold, influenced by volatility. A negative weight cycle in ðº represents an arbitrage opportunity, where the product of the weights along the cycle is greater than
Find the most profitable cycle across all time steps ð‘¡.
Additional Constraints:
The graph ðº has ∣ð‘‰âˆ£=28 nodes (one for each currency pair) and ∣ð¸âˆ£=∣ð‘‰âˆ£Ã—(∣ð‘‰âˆ£âˆ’1) ∣E∣=∣V∣×(∣V∣−1) edges (fully connected directed graph).
Edge weights ð‘¤(ð‘–,ð‘—,ð‘¡) vary dynamically with ð‘¡ according to: Δ(ð‘–,ð‘—,ð‘¡)=ðœŽð‘–(ð‘¡)â‹…ðœŽð‘—(ð‘¡), where
ðœŽð‘–(ð‘¡) is the standard deviation of prices for ð‘£ð‘– over a rolling window of 20 time steps.
You must use an efficient algorithm (e.g., Bellman-Ford for detecting negative cycles) to handle the graph's dynamic nature.
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars CorrelationMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Correlation adjacency matrix
vars ArbitrageMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Arbitrage adjacency matrix
vars VolatilityMatrix[PAIRS]; // Volatility levels for each pair
vars DynamicThresholdMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Dynamic arbitrage thresholds
vars RiskAdjustedWeights[PAIRS]; // Risk-adjusted portfolio weights
int StateMatrix[PAIRS][3][3]; // Transition matrix for each pair
vars CurrentDrawdown; // Current drawdown level
int LookBack = 200; // Lookback period for calculations
// Function to calculate correlation between two series
function calculateCorrelation(vars series1, vars series2, int len) {
var mean1 = SMA(series1, len);
var mean2 = SMA(series2, len);
var numerator = 0, denom1 = 0, denom2 = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < len; i++) {
numerator += (series1[i] - mean1) * (series2[i] - mean2);
denom1 += pow(series1[i] - mean1, 2);
denom2 += pow(series2[i] - mean2, 2);
}
return numerator / sqrt(denom1 * denom2);
}
// Initialize the correlation network
function initializeCorrelationNetwork() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
vars series1 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[i]));
vars series2 = series(price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = calculateCorrelation(series1, series2, LookBack);
} else {
CorrelationMatrix[i][j] = 1; // Self-correlation
}
}
}
}
// Calculate arbitrage opportunities between pairs with dynamic thresholds
function calculateDynamicArbitrage() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
var priceRatio = log(price(CurrencyPairs[i]) / price(CurrencyPairs[j]));
var threshold = max(0.01, VolatilityMatrix[i] * 0.5); // Dynamic threshold
DynamicThresholdMatrix[i][j] = threshold;
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = (abs(priceRatio) > threshold) ? priceRatio : 0;
} else {
ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] = 0; // No arbitrage within the same pair
}
}
}
}
// Calculate volatility levels for each pair
function calculateVolatilityMatrix() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
VolatilityMatrix[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i])), LookBack);
}
}
// Risk adjustment based on drawdown and portfolio composition
function adjustRiskWeights() {
var TotalWeight = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
var riskFactor = max(0.1, 1 - CurrentDrawdown / 0.2); // Reduce risk if drawdown exceeds 20%
RiskAdjustedWeights[i] = (1 / VolatilityMatrix[i]) * riskFactor;
TotalWeight += RiskAdjustedWeights[i];
}
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
RiskAdjustedWeights[i] /= TotalWeight; // Normalize weights
}
}
// Execute trades based on dynamic arbitrage and risk-adjusted weights
function executeDynamicTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] != 0) {
var WeightI = RiskAdjustedWeights[i];
var WeightJ = RiskAdjustedWeights[j];
if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] > 0) { // Long-Short arbitrage
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i], WeightI);
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[j], WeightJ);
} else if (ArbitrageMatrix[i][j] < 0) { // Short-Long arbitrage
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i], WeightI);
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[j], WeightJ);
}
}
}
}
}
// Track drawdown levels
function monitorDrawdown() {
CurrentDrawdown = max(0, 1 - (Equity / MaxEquity));
if (CurrentDrawdown > 0.2) { // Emergency shutdown at 20% drawdown
exitLong();
exitShort();
printf("Emergency risk controls triggered. All positions closed.");
}
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Update and calculate all matrices
initializeCorrelationNetwork();
calculateVolatilityMatrix();
calculateDynamicArbitrage();
adjustRiskWeights();
monitorDrawdown();
// Execute trades based on advanced analysis
executeDynamicTrades();
}
Algorithm Complexity You are tasked with assessing the efficiency of the trading algorithm.
Scenario The algorithm evaluates all possible trade paths across ð‘ƒð´ð¼ð‘…𑆠currency pairs to identify the most profitable path. Each path must satisfy a profitability threshold that is adjusted dynamically based on real-time performance. Trades are executed only when the risk-adjusted profit surpasses the threshold. The system operates continuously, recalculating profitability every second.
Challenge Questions
Graph Analysis:
Given ð‘ƒð´ð¼ð‘…ð‘†=28, the graph has ∣ð‘‰âˆ£=28 vertices. How many edges ∣ð¸âˆ£ exist in this graph if all trades are considered? Assume the graph is fully connected but excludes self-loops.
Path Complexity:
How many possible paths can exist from a source currency pair ð¶ð‘ to a target pair ð¶ð‘’ if loops and revisits are allowed? Bellman-Ford Complexity:
The Bellman-Ford algorithm iterates over all edges ∣ð¸âˆ£ for ∣ð‘‰âˆ£âˆ’1 rounds. Calculate the total computational complexity in terms of ∣ð‘‰âˆ£ and ∣ð¸âˆ£. Dynamic Threshold Adjustment:
If the threshold Δ is recalculated using volatility data for each currency pair and there are 50 price data points per pair, what is the time complexity of the threshold update process?
Scalability:
If ð‘ƒð´ð¼ð‘…𑆠increases to 56, describe how the computational complexity changes for: Profitability matrix calculation. Bellman-Ford algorithm. Dynamic threshold adjustment. Real-Time Execution:
Assume profitability recalculations are triggered every second. What is the expected latency for processing ð‘ƒð´ð¼ð‘…ð‘†= 28 if the system can handle 100,000 operations per second?
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars ProfitMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Edge weights (profitability)
int Previous[PAIRS]; // Stores the previous node in the path
vars PathProfit[PAIRS]; // Stores cumulative profit along the path
vars DynamicDeltaThreshold; // Dynamic threshold to execute trades
// Function to calculate profitability matrix
function calculateProfitMatrix() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
var priceRatio = price(CurrencyPairs[i]) / price(CurrencyPairs[j]);
ProfitMatrix[i][j] = log(priceRatio); // Logarithmic profitability
} else {
ProfitMatrix[i][j] = 0; // No self-loop
}
}
}
}
// Calculate the Dynamic Delta Threshold with risk-adjustment and feedback
function calculateDynamicDeltaThreshold() {
var totalRiskAdjustedProfit = 0;
int count = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j && ProfitMatrix[i][j] > 0) {
var volatility = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i])), 50); // 50-period volatility
var riskAdjustedProfit = ProfitMatrix[i][j] / volatility; // Risk-adjusted profit
totalRiskAdjustedProfit += riskAdjustedProfit;
count++;
}
}
}
if (count > 0) {
var baselineThreshold = totalRiskAdjustedProfit / count; // Average risk-adjusted profit
var performanceFactor = Equity / MaxEquity; // Performance feedback
DynamicDeltaThreshold = baselineThreshold * performanceFactor; // Adjust threshold dynamically
} else {
DynamicDeltaThreshold = 0.001; // Default fallback
}
// Log the threshold for backtesting and analysis
printf("DynamicDeltaThreshold: %.6f\n", DynamicDeltaThreshold);
}
// Bellman-Ford algorithm to find paths with the highest cumulative profit
function bellmanFord(int start) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
PathProfit[i] = -1e10; // Negative infinity for unvisited nodes
Previous[i] = -1; // No predecessor
}
PathProfit[start] = 0; // Profit starts at 0 from the source
for (int k = 0; k < PAIRS - 1; k++) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (ProfitMatrix[i][j] != 0 && PathProfit[i] + ProfitMatrix[i][j] > PathProfit[j]) {
PathProfit[j] = PathProfit[i] + ProfitMatrix[i][j]; // Update cumulative profit
Previous[j] = i; // Track the path
}
}
}
}
}
// Execute trades along the highest cumulative profit path
function executePath(int start, int end) {
int current = end;
while (current != -1) {
int previous = Previous[current];
if (previous == -1) break;
if (ProfitMatrix[previous][current] > 0) {
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[previous]);
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[current]);
} else {
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[previous]);
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[current]);
}
current = previous;
}
}
// Continuously execute trades while conditions exist
function executeContinuousTrades(int start) {
while (1) {
calculateProfitMatrix(); // Update the graph with live data
calculateDynamicDeltaThreshold(); // Adjust the threshold dynamically
bellmanFord(start); // Recalculate paths with the highest cumulative profit
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j && ProfitMatrix[i][j] > DynamicDeltaThreshold) {
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[j]);
printf("Executing Trade: Long %s, Short %s\n", CurrencyPairs[i], CurrencyPairs[j]);
}
}
}
// Add a condition to exit the loop for backtesting or analysis
if (isBacktest() && getBacktestPeriod() == "End") {
break;
}
}
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
int startPair = 0; // Start from the first currency pair
executeContinuousTrades(startPair);
}
Optimal Arbitrage with Stochastic Correlation in Currency Pairs You are tasked with developing an arbitrage strategy between three independent currency pairs: ð´/ðµ, ðµ/ð¶, and ð´/ð¶, where:
The price of each currency pair follows a geometric Brownian motion:
dS_i = μ_i * S_i * dt + σ_i * S_i * dW_i, for i ∈ {1, 2, 3}
μ_i: Drift rate of the ð‘–-th pair. σ_i: Volatility of the ð‘–-th pair. W_i: Independent Wiener processes for each pair. A stochastic correlation Ï(t) governs the dependency between the pairs' volatilities:
dÏ(t) = κ * (θ - Ï(t)) * dt + η * √(1 - Ï(t)^2) * dZ_t κ: Mean-reversion speed of Ï(t). θ: Long-term mean of Ï(t). η: Volatility of Ï(t). Z_t: Another Wiener process, independent of W_i.
Objective Derive a dynamic arbitrage strategy that:
Exploits triangular arbitrage opportunities between the three currency pairs. Incorporates stochastic correlation Ï(t) to optimize trading decisions. The profit at each step is calculated as:
Profit = log(S_AB * S_BC / S_AC)
When Profit > Δ, execute arbitrage trades. Δ: Dynamic threshold dependent on Ï(t).
Formulate the optimal stopping problem:
Define the time Ï„ to execute trades based on maximizing expected profit:
Dynamic Trading Strategy with PCA and Stochastic Volatility
You are tasked with designing an optimal dynamic trading strategy that exploits volatility patterns across multiple currency pairs. This strategy incorporates Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and Stochastic Calculus to model the evolving market dynamics.
Setup
Currency Pairs and Volatility Dynamics:
Let X_t = [X_1(t), X_2(t), ..., X_n(t)] represent the instantaneous volatility spreads of n currency pairs at time t. Each volatility spread X_i(t) evolves according to a stochastic differential equation (SDE):
dX_i(t) = mu_i * dt + sigma_i * dW_i(t),
where: mu_i is the drift of the volatility spread (mean reversion to long-term volatility). sigma_i is the volatility of the volatility spread (vol of vol). W_i(t) is an independent Wiener process for each pair.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA):
At each time step, perform PCA on the volatility matrix to identify the top k principal components (k <= n). The components are represented as:
Y_t = V * X_t,
where: V is the matrix of eigenvectors (PCA transformation matrix). Y_t contains the transformed coordinates in the reduced-dimensional space.
Profitability Metric:
Define the profitability of a trading path between two currency pairs based on the PCA-reduced volatility data:
Profit(i, j) = integral from t0 to t1 [ log(Y_i(t) / Y_j(t)) * dt ], where Y_i(t) and Y_j(t) are the PCA components of the respective pairs.
The Puzzle
Stochastic Optimization:
Given n = 28 currency pairs, model the system of volatility spreads X_t using PCA and stochastic differential equations. Derive a strategy to maximize the expected cumulative profitability:
E [ integral from t0 to t1 [ Profit(i, j) * dt ] ], where Profit(i, j) depends on the PCA-reduced volatility spreads.
Constraints:
The number of components k must be optimized dynamically to ensure at least 90% of the variance is captured:
sum from i=1 to k [ lambda_i ] / sum from i=1 to n [ lambda_i ] >= 0.90,
where lambda_i are the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix. The strategy must account for transaction costs proportional to the change in position:
Cost = c * abs(Delta_Position),
where c is the transaction cost coefficient.
Optimal Stopping:
Identify the optimal stopping time tau to rebalance the portfolio by solving the following stochastic control problem:
V(X_t) = sup_tau E [ integral from t to tau [ Profit(i, j) * exp(-r * (s - t)) * ds ] - Cost(tau) ], where r is the risk-free discount rate.
Questions to Solve
Variance Threshold:
At each time step, determine the optimal number of components k such that:
sum from i=1 to k [ lambda_i ] / sum from i=1 to n [ lambda_i ] >= 0.90, where lambda_i are the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix.
Stochastic Path Simulation:
Simulate the paths of X_t and Y_t for 28 currency pairs over a period [t0, t1]. How do the principal components evolve over time?
Profitability Surface:
Compute the profitability for all pairwise combinations of (i, j) and identify the most profitable trading path over [t0, t1].
Optimal Rebalancing:
Solve the optimal stopping problem to determine when to rebalance the portfolio to maximize net profitability.
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars VolatilityMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Volatility relationship matrix
vars CovMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Covariance matrix
vars Eigenvalues[PAIRS]; // Eigenvalues from PCA
vars Eigenvectors[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Eigenvectors from PCA
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Volatility for each pair
vars ReducedMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Reduced matrix for all components
int lookback = 50; // Lookback period for volatility calculation
// Function to calculate volatilities for all pairs
function calculateVolatilities() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
volatilities[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i])), lookback);
}
}
// Function to calculate the volatility matrix (volatility spreads)
function calculateVolatilityMatrix() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
VolatilityMatrix[i][j] = volatilities[i] - volatilities[j];
} else {
VolatilityMatrix[i][j] = 0; // Self-loops have no effect
}
}
}
}
// Calculate the covariance between two series of data
function covariance(vars series1, vars series2, int length) {
var mean1 = 0, mean2 = 0, cov = 0;
// Step 1: Compute the means of both series
for (int i = 0; i < length; i++) {
mean1 += series1[i];
mean2 += series2[i];
}
mean1 /= length;
mean2 /= length;
// Step 2: Compute the covariance
for (int i = 0; i < length; i++) {
cov += (series1[i] - mean1) * (series2[i] - mean2);
}
return cov / length;
}
// Function to calculate the covariance matrix
function calculateCovarianceMatrix() {
int length = PAIRS; // Length of the series (number of pairs)
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
CovMatrix[i][j] = covariance(VolatilityMatrix[i], VolatilityMatrix[j], length);
}
}
}
// Perform PCA: Decompose the covariance matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors
function performPCA() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
Eigenvectors[i][j] = CovMatrix[i][j]; // Initialize with CovMatrix for decomposition
}
}
// Perform power iteration or similar numerical eigenvalue decomposition
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
Eigenvalues[i] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
Eigenvalues[i] += Eigenvectors[i][j] * Eigenvectors[i][j];
}
Eigenvalues[i] = sqrt(Eigenvalues[i]); // Compute the eigenvalue magnitude
}
// Sort eigenvalues and eigenvectors by descending eigenvalue order
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS - 1; i++) {
for (int j = i + 1; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (Eigenvalues[i] < Eigenvalues[j]) {
// Swap eigenvalues
var tempValue = Eigenvalues[i];
Eigenvalues[i] = Eigenvalues[j];
Eigenvalues[j] = tempValue;
// Swap eigenvectors
for (int k = 0; k < PAIRS; k++) {
var tempVector = Eigenvectors[k][i];
Eigenvectors[k][i] = Eigenvectors[k][j];
Eigenvectors[k][j] = tempVector;
}
}
}
}
}
// Determine the optimal number of components based on cumulative variance explained
function optimizeComponents(vars Eigenvalues, int totalComponents, var targetVariance) {
var totalVariance = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < totalComponents; i++) {
totalVariance += Eigenvalues[i];
}
var cumulativeVariance = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < totalComponents; i++) {
cumulativeVariance += Eigenvalues[i];
if (cumulativeVariance / totalVariance >= targetVariance) { // Target variance explained
return i + 1; // Return the optimal number of components
}
}
return totalComponents; // Default to all components
}
// Project the volatility matrix onto the top principal components
function reduceMatrix(int topComponents) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < topComponents; j++) {
ReducedMatrix[i][j] = dotProduct(VolatilityMatrix[i], Eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Trade logic based on PCA-reduced components
function tradeWithPCA(int topComponents, var threshold) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < topComponents; j++) {
if (abs(ReducedMatrix[i][j]) > threshold) {
if (ReducedMatrix[i][j] > 0) {
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
} else {
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
}
}
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
calculateVolatilities(); // Step 1: Calculate volatilities
calculateVolatilityMatrix(); // Step 2: Compute volatility matrix
calculateCovarianceMatrix(); // Step 3: Compute covariance matrix
performPCA(); // Step 4: Perform PCA
// Optimize the number of components based on 90% variance explained
int optimalComponents = optimizeComponents(Eigenvalues, PAIRS, 0.90);
// Reduce the matrix using the optimal number of components
reduceMatrix(optimalComponents);
// Trade using PCA-reduced features
var threshold = 0.05; // Set a trading threshold
tradeWithPCA(optimalComponents, threshold);
}
Hi Tipmy. Are all the code above produced by ZorroGPT? Those code are quite complex from what I see, with the code separated into different functions, and very organized. But when I use ZorroGPT to come out with a code, the code won't be as "sophisticated" as yours. I am wondering what prompt you use to have it produce such complex code. Thanks!
Last edited by vicknick; 01/02/2506:39.
Re: PCA and Stochastic Volatility
[Re: vicknick]
#488509 01/02/2506:5101/02/2506:51
First Thank you for looking into the code and being interested in ZorroGPT, The code GPT is producing for Zorro, is still considered simple, procedural code, I guess complex is a very relative term, Thank you for appreciating the complexity and organization.
If you are using ZorroGPT, than you need to define and describe your strategy in a simple English, with no double meanings or lack of precision, In addition, you need to work with short amounts of prompts, not more than 10 focusing on one problem or task, after you finish solving the task, start the prompt from the beginning by copying the code from the previous prompt. Every Strategy has a different description, so will the prompt or the series of prompts.
If you would like to share your strategy example, I will help you to formulize prompt
You are tasked with designing an algorithmic trading strategy for volatility arbitrage using a nonlinear volatility model. Your system must operate across ð‘=28 currency pairs, where the relationships between volatilities are nonlinear and highly entangled. The problem involves deciphering the following computational puzzle:
The Problem Volatility Web: Each currency pair ð¶ð‘– has an evolving volatility ð‘‰ð‘–(ð‘¡) over time ð‘¡, defined by the entangled volatility equation:
ð›¼ð‘–,ð›½ð‘–,ð›¾ð‘– are coefficients dependent on historical price movements. ð‘¡ represents discrete time steps (ticks). Kernel Transform: To uncover hidden arbitrage opportunities, a Gaussian kernel transformation is applied to the volatility spreads between pairs:
Where ð¾ð‘–ð‘—(ð‘¡)​ represents the similarity between volatilities ð‘‰ð‘– and ð‘‰ð‘—.
Dynamic Market Dynamics: At any tick ð‘¡, the kernel matrix ð¾(ð‘¡) evolves based on incoming price data. Your goal is to extract principal components from ð¾(ð‘¡) to identify arbitrage paths.
Principal Component Noise: The extracted components ðœ†1,ðœ†2,…,ðœ†ð‘› are influenced by noise-induced eigenvalue drift:
Profit Extraction: The trading signal for each pair ð¶ð‘– is generated from the reduced kernel matrix ð‘…ð‘–(ð‘¡) (t), calculated by projecting ð¾(ð‘¡) onto the top 𑚠m-principal components:
ð”¼[ð‘…(ð‘¡)] is the mean of ð‘…ð‘–(ð‘¡) across all pairs. 𛿠is a risk-adjustment coefficient.
Your Tasks Model the Volatility Web: Simulate ð‘‰ð‘–(ð‘¡) ​ (t) for all ð‘–∈[1,ð‘] over 1000 ticks, ensuring the coefficients ð›¼ð‘–,ð›½ð‘–,ð›¾ð‘– are randomly initialized but correlated to historical price changes.
Construct the Kernel Matrix: Compute ð¾ð‘–ð‘—(ð‘¡)​ at each tick using the Gaussian kernel formula.
Perform Kernel PCA: Decompose ð¾(ð‘¡) into eigenvalues ðœ†ð‘˜(ð‘¡) and eigenvectors ð‘£ð‘˜(ð‘¡)​. Extract the top ð‘š=3 components for trading signals.
Account for Noise: Simulate ðœ‚ð‘˜(ð‘¡) as Gaussian noise and apply it to the eigenvalues to observe how noise affects the trading signals.
Optimize the Threshold: Experiment with different values of 𛿠to maximize profitability while minimizing drawdowns.
Trading Logic: Implement a trading strategy that enters long or short positions based on the dynamic threshold Θ(ð‘¡). Evaluate performance using a back testing framework.
Additional Complexity
To further enhance the challenge, consider:
Dynamic Sigma for Kernel: Allow 𜎠in the Gaussian kernel to adapt based on volatility clustering:
σ(t) = σ₀ ⋅ (1 + κ ⋅ StdDev(V(t)))
Multi-Asset Dependencies: Introduce correlation across non-currency asset classes (e.g., equities, bonds) to impact ð‘‰ð‘–(ð‘¡) (t).
Optimization of Principal Components: Automatically optimize the number of components 𑚠to balance signal strength and noise robustness.
Puzzle Objective Your task is to:
Identify nonlinear arbitrage paths hidden in the noisy principal components. Design an efficient algorithm that adapts to the dynamic nature of the kernel matrix and volatility web. Maximize cumulative profitability while maintaining a Sharpe ratio above 2.0 over the simulated 1000-tick dataset.
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars VolatilityMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Volatility relationship matrix
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for Kernel PCA
vars eigenvalues[PAIRS]; // Eigenvalues from Kernel PCA
vars eigenvectors[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Eigenvectors from Kernel PCA
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Volatility for each pair
vars ReducedMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Reduced matrix for all components
vars smoothedSignals[PAIRS]; // Smoothed signals for risk control
int lookback = 50; // Lookback period for volatility calculation
var sigma = 0.5; // Kernel width parameter
var dynamicThreshold; // Dynamic trading threshold
// Function to calculate volatilities for all pairs
function calculateVolatilities() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
volatilities[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i]), lookback));
}
}
// Function to calculate the volatility matrix (volatility spreads)
function calculateVolatilityMatrix() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
VolatilityMatrix[i][j] = volatilities[i] - volatilities[j];
} else {
VolatilityMatrix[i][j] = 0; // Self-loops have no effect
}
}
}
}
// Function to calculate the kernel matrix using a Gaussian kernel
function calculateKernelMatrix(vars VolatilityMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], var sigma) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
kernelMatrix[i][j] = exp(-pow(VolatilityMatrix[i][j], 2) / (2 * pow(sigma, 2))); // Gaussian kernel
}
}
}
// Perform Kernel PCA: Decompose the kernel matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors
function performKernelPCA(vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars eigenvalues, vars eigenvectors) {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors); // Decompose the kernel matrix
}
// Reduce data using the top principal components
function reduceKernelData(vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars eigenvectors[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars ReducedMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], int numComponents) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < numComponents; j++) {
ReducedMatrix[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Calculate a dynamic threshold based on standard deviation of reduced signals
function calculateDynamicThreshold(int topComponents) {
var sumSquares = 0;
int count = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < topComponents; j++) {
sumSquares += ReducedMatrix[i][j] * ReducedMatrix[i][j];
count++;
}
}
return sqrt(sumSquares / count); // Standard deviation as threshold
}
// Smooth signals to reduce noise
function smoothSignals(int topComponents) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
smoothedSignals[i] = SMA(series(ReducedMatrix[i][0]), lookback); // Smooth first component
}
}
// Trade logic based on Kernel PCA-reduced components
function tradeWithKernelPCA(int topComponents) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (abs(smoothedSignals[i]) > dynamicThreshold) {
if (smoothedSignals[i] > 0) {
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
} else {
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
}
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
calculateVolatilities(); // Step 1: Calculate volatilities
calculateVolatilityMatrix(); // Step 2: Compute volatility matrix
// Step 3: Compute kernel matrix
calculateKernelMatrix(VolatilityMatrix, kernelMatrix, sigma);
// Step 4: Perform Kernel PCA
performKernelPCA(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
// Step 5: Optimize the number of components based on variance explained
int optimalComponents = optimizeComponents(eigenvalues, PAIRS, 0.90);
// Step 6: Reduce data using the top principal components
reduceKernelData(kernelMatrix, eigenvectors, ReducedMatrix, optimalComponents);
// Step 7: Calculate dynamic threshold
dynamicThreshold = calculateDynamicThreshold(optimalComponents);
// Step 8: Smooth signals for stability
smoothSignals(optimalComponents);
// Step 9: Execute trades based on Kernel PCA-reduced features
tradeWithKernelPCA(optimalComponents);
}
You are tasked with solving a nonlinear, multi-dimensional volatility arbitrage problem. Your goal is to design a strategy that detects complex relationships between currency pair volatilities using Kernel PCA and neural networks. The relationships between volatilities are highly entangled and nonlinear, requiring advanced mathematical techniques.
The Problem Volatility Evolution: Each currency pair ð¶ð‘– has a volatility ð‘‰ð‘–(ð‘¡), defined as:
ð‘—!=ð‘˜!=ð‘–, and ð‘—,ð‘˜âˆˆ[1,ð‘], with ð‘=28 currency pairs. ð›¼ð‘–,ð›½ð‘–,ð›¾ð‘– are coefficients based on historical data. ðœ–ð‘–(ð‘¡)∼ð‘(0,ðœŽ2)ϵ i ​ (t)∼N(0,σ2) is Gaussian noise.
Kernel Transformation: The volatility spreads are mapped into a high-dimensional kernel space:
ð¾ð‘–ð‘—(ð‘¡) is the similarity measure between volatilities ð‘‰ð‘– and ð‘‰ð‘—. 𜎠is the kernel width. Principal Component Analysis (PCA): Decompose the kernel matrix ð¾(ð‘¡) into eigenvalues and eigenvectors:
K(t) = sum_{k=1}^N (lambda_k * (v_k @ v_k'))
Extract the top ð‘š-principal components that explain at least 90% of the variance.
ðœ‚ð‘˜(ð‘¡)∼ð‘(0,ð‘™ð‘Žð‘šð‘ð‘‘𑎠ð‘˜(ð‘¡)∗ð‘›ð‘¢)​ (t)∼N(0,lambda k(t)∗nu). ð‘›ð‘¢ is the noise scaling factor. Reduced Data: Project the kernel matrix onto the top 𑚠principal components:
R_i(t) = sum_{k=1}^m (dot(K_i(t), v_k) * v_k)
Dynamic Threshold: Neural networks predict thresholds for trade execution:
Theta_i(t) = NeuralNet(K_i(t), R_i(t))
Trade Signal: Normalize the reduced data and execute trades based on the signal:
Signal(C_i) = R_i(t) / sqrt(sum_{j=1}^N R_j(t)^2)
Trades are executed when:
abs(Signal(C_i)) > Theta_i(t)
Additional Complexity Dynamic Kernel Width: Allow 𜎠to adapt dynamically based on volatility clustering:
sigma(t) = sigma_0 * (1 + kappa * StdDev(V(t)))
Component Selection: Use a second neural network to optimize the number of components ð‘š:
Objective Simulate the market with ð‘=28 currency pairs and 1000 ticks. Train neural networks to predict thresholds (ð‘‡â„Žð‘’ð‘¡ð‘Ž(ð‘¡)) and optimize components (ð‘š). Execute the strategy and maximize the Sharpe ratio while maintaining a maximum drawdown below 5%.
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for Kernel PCA
vars ReducedMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Reduced matrix for principal components
vars Thresholds[PAIRS]; // Neural network predicted thresholds
vars smoothedSignals[PAIRS]; // Smoothed signals for risk control
vars Predictions[PAIRS]; // Neural network predictions
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Volatility for each pair
vars eigenvalues[PAIRS]; // Eigenvalues from PCA
vars eigenvectors[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Eigenvectors from PCA
int lookback = 50; // Lookback period for volatility calculation
int NeuralModelThreshold; // Handle for neural network predicting thresholds
int NeuralModelSigma; // Handle for neural network predicting kernel width
var sigma = 0.5; // Default kernel width parameter
var dynamicThreshold; // Dynamic trading threshold
// Function to calculate volatilities for all pairs
function calculateVolatilities() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
volatilities[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i]), lookback));
}
}
// Function to calculate the kernel matrix using a Gaussian kernel
function calculateKernelMatrix(vars volatilities[PAIRS], vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], var sigma) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
kernelMatrix[i][j] = exp(-pow(volatilities[i] - volatilities[j], 2) / (2 * pow(sigma, 2))); // Gaussian kernel
}
}
}
// Perform Kernel PCA: Decompose the kernel matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors
function performKernelPCA(vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars eigenvalues, vars eigenvectors) {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors); // Decompose the kernel matrix
}
// Reduce data using the top principal components
function reduceKernelData(vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars eigenvectors[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars ReducedMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], int numComponents) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < numComponents; j++) {
ReducedMatrix[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Neural network training function for dynamic threshold prediction
function trainNeuralNetworks() {
// Train for thresholds
LayerPerceptron(10); // 10 nodes in hidden layer
LayerNormalize();
LayerPerceptron(1); // Output layer for threshold prediction
NeuralModelThreshold = Train(
"threshold_model", // Model name
Features, // Input features (kernel matrix and volatilities)
Targets, // Target outputs (thresholds from historical data)
NumSamples // Number of samples
);
// Train for sigma adjustment
LayerPerceptron(10); // 10 nodes in hidden layer
LayerNormalize();
LayerPerceptron(1); // Output layer for kernel width (sigma) prediction
NeuralModelSigma = Train(
"sigma_model", // Model name
Features, // Input features (historical volatilities and returns)
Targets, // Target outputs (optimal sigma values)
NumSamples // Number of samples
);
}
// Predict dynamic thresholds using the neural network
function predictThresholds(vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS], vars Thresholds[PAIRS]) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
Thresholds[i] = Predict(NeuralModelThreshold, kernelMatrix[i]); // Predict for each row in kernel matrix
}
}
// Predict dynamic sigma using the neural network
function predictSigma(vars volatilities[PAIRS]) {
return Predict(NeuralModelSigma, volatilities); // Predict sigma dynamically
}
// Calculate a dynamic threshold based on reduced signals
function calculateDynamicThreshold(int topComponents) {
var sumSquares = 0;
int count = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < topComponents; j++) {
sumSquares += ReducedMatrix[i][j] * ReducedMatrix[i][j];
count++;
}
}
return sqrt(sumSquares / count); // Standard deviation as threshold
}
// Smooth signals to reduce noise
function smoothSignals(vars Predictions[PAIRS], vars smoothedSignals[PAIRS]) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
smoothedSignals[i] = SMA(series(Predictions[i]), lookback);
}
}
// Trade logic with neural network-predicted thresholds
function tradeWithNeuralNetwork(vars smoothedSignals[PAIRS], vars Thresholds[PAIRS]) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (smoothedSignals[i] > Thresholds[i]) {
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
} else if (smoothedSignals[i] < -Thresholds[i]) {
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
}
// Main trading function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Calculate volatilities
calculateVolatilities();
// Step 2: Predict sigma using the neural network
sigma = predictSigma(volatilities);
// Step 3: Compute kernel matrix
calculateKernelMatrix(volatilities, kernelMatrix, sigma);
// Step 4: Perform Kernel PCA
performKernelPCA(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
// Step 5: Optimize the number of components based on variance explained
int optimalComponents = optimizeComponents(eigenvalues, PAIRS, 0.90);
// Step 6: Reduce data using the top principal components
reduceKernelData(kernelMatrix, eigenvectors, ReducedMatrix, optimalComponents);
// Step 7: Predict thresholds using the neural network
predictThresholds(kernelMatrix, Thresholds);
// Step 8: Generate predictions (e.g., signal strength)
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
Predictions[i] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], Thresholds);
}
// Step 9: Smooth predictions for stable signals
smoothSignals(Predictions, smoothedSignals);
// Step 10: Execute trades based on predictions and thresholds
tradeWithNeuralNetwork(smoothedSignals, Thresholds);
}
Problem Context You are managing a portfolio of ð‘=28 currency pairs, denoted as ð¶1,ð¶2,…,ð¶ð‘. Your goal is to identify volatility arbitrage opportunities by analyzing volatility spreads and return correlations, projecting them into a nonlinear feature space, and recursively refining the results to adapt to market dynamics.
Market Dynamics 1. Volatility Spread Calculation The volatility spread between any two currency pairs ð¶ð‘– and ð¶ð‘— is given by:
V_ij(t) = sigma_i(t) - sigma_j(t),
where:
ð‘ ð‘–ð‘”ð‘šð‘Žð‘–(ð‘¡): Rolling standard deviation of currency pair ð¶ð‘– over the past ð¿ time steps. ð‘‰ð‘–ð‘—(ð‘¡): The relative volatility between ð¶ð‘– and ð¶ð‘—. 2. Return Correlation The return correlation between ð¶ð‘– and ð¶ð‘— evolves according to:
rho_ij(t+1) = rho_ij(t) + eta_ij(t),
where:
ð‘Ÿâ„Žð‘œð‘–ð‘—(ð‘¡): Pearson correlation coefficient between the returns of ð¶ð‘– and ð¶ð‘—. ð‘’ð‘¡ð‘Žð‘–ð‘—(ð‘¡)∼ð‘(0,ð‘›ð‘¢2): Gaussian noise representing market shocks.
Kernel Transformation To capture nonlinear relationships, both the volatility spread matrix (ð‘‰) and the correlation matrix (ð‘Ÿâ„Žð‘œ) are projected into a high-dimensional feature space using Gaussian kernels.
ð‘…(ð‘‰)ð‘–ð‘—​: Reduced features from the volatility kernel matrix ð¾(ð‘‰).
Kernel PCA Each kernel matrix (ð¾(ð‘‰), ð¾(ð‘Ÿâ„Žð‘œ) is decomposed using Kernel PCA:
K(t) = sum_{k=1}^m lambda_k * (v_k @ v_k'),
where:
ð‘™ð‘Žð‘šð‘ð‘‘ð‘Žð‘˜ : Eigenvalues of the kernel matrix. ð‘£ð‘˜ : Eigenvectors of the kernel matrix. ð‘š: Number of principal components that explain >=90 of the variance. The reduced feature matrices are:
Overview You are tasked with designing a multi-layer volatility arbitrage strategy for a portfolio of 28 currency pairs. The strategy leverages Kernel PCA to extract latent structures in pairwise volatility relationships and their interplay with profitability signals. The challenge is to optimize the combination of kernel components to maximize risk-adjusted profitability while managing noise and feedback loops between dependent volatility and profitability spaces.
Problem Statement Volatility Pair Dynamics: Each pair ð¶ð‘–,ð¶ð‘— exhibits a volatility relationship:
V_{i,j}(t) = |σ_i(t) - σ_j(t)|,
where ðœŽð‘–(ð‘¡) (t) is the volatility of currency pair ð¶ð‘–, computed as:
σ_i(t) = StdDev(P_i(t), \text{lookback}), and ð‘ƒð‘–(ð‘¡) is the price series of ð¶ð‘–.
Profitability Metric: For each pair combination (ð‘–,ð‘—), define a profitability measure Î ð‘–,ð‘—(ð‘¡):
Î _{i,j}(t) = |R_i(t) - R_j(t)|, where ð‘…ð‘–(ð‘¡) is the return:
R_i(t) = P_i(t) / P_i(t-1) - 1.
Kernel Transformation: Use a Gaussian kernel to map volatility and profitability measures into high-dimensional spaces:
Principal Component Extraction: Decompose the kernel matrices ð¾ð‘‰ and ð¾Î into their eigenvalues ðœ†ð‘˜â€‹ and eigenvectors ð‘£ð‘˜â€‹ using:
K = Σ_{k=1}^N λ_k * (v_k ⊗ v_k), where ð‘=378 is the number of pair combinations.
Feedback Loop: The reduced components ð‘…𑉠and ð‘…Π​ are recursively coupled:
Implement the kernel matrices ð¾ð‘‰ and ð¾Î . Extract ð‘š-principal components for both matrices. Train neural networks ð‘ð‘1, ð‘ð‘2, and MetaNN.
Recursive Feedback: Establish recursive coupling between ð‘…𑉠V and ð‘…Î .
Ensure convergence within the specified tolerance. Profitability Optimization:
Optimize the selection of pair combinations to maximize the cumulative profitability.
Backtesting:
Simulate the strategy over 10,000 ticks and report: Sharpe ratio. Maximum drawdown. Trade frequency.
Code
#define PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
#define COMBINATIONS 378 // Total number of unique pair combinations
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Volatility for each pair
vars volatilityRatios[COMBINATIONS]; // Volatility ratios for pair combinations
vars kernelMatrix1[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA-1
vars kernelMatrix2[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA-2
vars ReducedMatrix1[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS]; // Reduced matrix for PCA-1
vars ReducedMatrix2[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS]; // Reduced matrix for PCA-2
vars profitabilityMatrix[COMBINATIONS]; // Profitability matrix for pair combinations
vars Threshold1[COMBINATIONS]; // Thresholds from NN-1
vars Threshold2[COMBINATIONS]; // Thresholds from NN-2
vars MetaFeatures[COMBINATIONS]; // Meta-features for MetaNN
vars FinalSignals[COMBINATIONS]; // Final trade signals
int combinationIndex[COMBINATIONS][2]; // Index mapping for combinations
int NN1, NN2, MetaNN; // Neural network handles
int lookback = 50; // Lookback period
// Step 1: Calculate volatilities for all currency pairs
function calculateVolatilities() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
volatilities[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i])), lookback);
}
}
// Step 2: Generate all pair combinations
function generateCombinations() {
int index = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS - 1; i++) {
for (int j = i + 1; j < PAIRS; j++) {
combinationIndex[index][0] = i; // First pair in the combination
combinationIndex[index][1] = j; // Second pair in the combination
index++;
}
}
}
// Step 3: Calculate volatility ratios for all combinations
function calculateVolatilityRatios() {
for (int k = 0; k < COMBINATIONS; k++) {
int i = combinationIndex[k][0];
int j = combinationIndex[k][1];
volatilityRatios[k] = abs(volatilities[i] - volatilities[j]); // Volatility difference
}
}
// Step 4: Compute kernel matrices
function calculateKernelMatrices(var sigma1, var sigma2) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMBINATIONS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMBINATIONS; j++) {
kernelMatrix1[i][j] = exp(-pow(volatilityRatios[i] - volatilityRatios[j], 2) / (2 * pow(sigma1, 2)));
kernelMatrix2[i][j] = exp(-pow(profitabilityMatrix[i] - profitabilityMatrix[j], 2) / (2 * pow(sigma2, 2)));
}
}
}
// Step 5: Perform Kernel PCA
function performKernelPCA(vars kernelMatrix[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS], vars eigenvalues, vars eigenvectors) {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
}
// Step 6: Reduce kernel data
function reduceKernelData(vars kernelMatrix[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS], vars eigenvectors[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS], vars ReducedMatrix[COMBINATIONS][COMBINATIONS], int components) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMBINATIONS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < components; j++) {
ReducedMatrix[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 7: Train neural networks
function trainNeuralNetworks() {
// Train NN-1
LayerPerceptron(10);
LayerNormalize();
LayerPerceptron(1);
NN1 = Train("NN1", ReducedMatrix1, Threshold1, COMBINATIONS);
// Train NN-2
LayerPerceptron(10);
LayerNormalize();
LayerPerceptron(1);
NN2 = Train("NN2", ReducedMatrix2, Threshold2, COMBINATIONS);
// Train Meta Neural Network
LayerPerceptron(5);
LayerNormalize();
LayerPerceptron(1);
MetaNN = Train("MetaNN", [Threshold1, Threshold2], FinalSignals, COMBINATIONS);
}
// Step 8: Predict thresholds and signals
function predictThresholdsAndSignals() {
for (int i = 0; i < COMBINATIONS; i++) {
Threshold1[i] = Predict(NN1, ReducedMatrix1[i]);
Threshold2[i] = Predict(NN2, ReducedMatrix2[i]);
// Meta Neural Network combines predictions
MetaFeatures[i] = [Threshold1[i], Threshold2[i]];
FinalSignals[i] = Predict(MetaNN, MetaFeatures[i]);
}
}
// Step 9: Execute trades
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < COMBINATIONS; i++) {
int pair1 = combinationIndex[i][0];
int pair2 = combinationIndex[i][1];
// Example trade logic based on meta signal
if (FinalSignals[i] > 0.5) {
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[pair1]);
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[pair2]);
} else if (FinalSignals[i] < -0.5) {
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[pair1]);
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[pair2]);
}
}
}
// Main function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Calculate volatilities
calculateVolatilities();
// Step 2: Generate pair combinations
generateCombinations();
// Step 3: Calculate volatility ratios
calculateVolatilityRatios();
// Step 4: Compute kernel matrices
calculateKernelMatrices(0.5, 0.5); // Example sigma values
// Step 5: Perform Kernel PCA
vars eigenvalues1, eigenvectors1;
vars eigenvalues2, eigenvectors2;
performKernelPCA(kernelMatrix1, eigenvalues1, eigenvectors1);
performKernelPCA(kernelMatrix2, eigenvalues2, eigenvectors2);
// Step 6: Reduce kernel data
reduceKernelData(kernelMatrix1, eigenvectors1, ReducedMatrix1, 3); // Top 3 components
reduceKernelData(kernelMatrix2, eigenvectors2, ReducedMatrix2, 3);
// Step 7: Train neural networks
trainNeuralNetworks();
// Step 8: Predict thresholds and signals
predictThresholdsAndSignals();
// Step 9: Execute trades
executeTrades();
}
Problem: Recursive Kernel PCA with GNN for Profitability Optimization
You are tasked to design a trading strategy that integrates two Kernel PCAs (for volatility and profitability relationships) with a Graph Neural Network (GNN). The strategy dynamically updates node embeddings and kernel matrices to extract dominant patterns and optimize trading signals for a portfolio of ð‘›=28 currency pairs.
The goal is to maximize profitability Î , subject to market dynamics and constraints.
Step 1: Graph Construction Graph Definition: Let the currency pairs be represented as a graph ðº=(ð‘‰,ð¸), where:
ð‘‰: Nodes, ð‘£ð‘– , represent currency pairs. ð¸: Edges represent relationships between pairs. Node Features: Each node ð‘£ð‘– is assigned a feature vector ð‘¥ð‘–, defined as:
x_i = [σ_i(t), R_i(t), M_i(t), Ï_{i,j}(t)]
where:
ðœŽð‘–(ð‘¡): Volatility of ð¶ð‘–, ð‘…ð‘–(ð‘¡): Return of ð¶ð‘–,ð‘€ð‘–(ð‘¡): Momentum of ð¶ð‘–, ðœŒð‘–,ð‘—(ð‘¡): Correlation between ð¶ð‘– and ð¶ð‘—.
Edge Weights: The weighted adjacency matrix ð´ is given by:
A[i][j] = exp(-||x_i - x_j||^2 / (2 * σ^2))
where 𜎠is a kernel width parameter.
Step 2: Kernel Matrices
Volatility Kernel ð¾ð‘‰ : Construct ð¾ð‘‰K using a Gaussian kernel:
You are tasked with designing a multi-layer trading strategy based on recursive Kernel PCA and interdependent ð‘-Layer GNNs to analyze ð‘›=28 currency pairs. Each GNN layer specializes in capturing different graph dynamics (e.g., volatility, profitability, momentum), while layers interact nonlinearly and recursively. The outputs from each GNN layer influence:
The adjacency matrices for the other layers. The kernel matrices for volatility (ð¾ð‘‰) and profitability (ð¾Î ). The node embeddings, which are combined and propagated across layers. The challenge is to optimize the system by dynamically balancing these interactions while maximizing risk-adjusted profitability.
Extracting dominant volatility and profitability components with Kernel PCA. Propagating and aggregating embeddings across ð‘-interdependent GNN layers. Dynamically refining kernels and thresholds using recursive feedback.
Code
#define PAIRS 28
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Volatility for each pair
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS][28]; // Adjacency matrices for 28 GNNs
vars nodeEmbeddings[PAIRS][5][28]; // Node embeddings for 28 GNNs
vars updatedEmbeddings[PAIRS][5]; // Final node embeddings after aggregation
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars eigenvalues[PAIRS]; // Eigenvalues from PCA
vars eigenvectors[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Eigenvectors from PCA
vars reducedMatrix[PAIRS][3]; // Reduced components from PCA
vars thresholds[PAIRS]; // Thresholds for trade execution
vars signals[PAIRS]; // Final trading signals
int lookback = 50;
int NN; // Neural network handle for threshold prediction
int propagationDepth = 3; // GNN propagation depth
// Step 1: Calculate volatilities for all pairs
function calculateVolatilities() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
volatilities[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i])), lookback);
}
}
// Step 2: Construct adjacency matrices for 28 GNNs
function constructAdjacencyMatrices() {
for (int l = 0; l < 28; l++) { // For each GNN layer
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
if (i != j) {
adjacencyMatrices[i][j][l] = exp(-pow(volatilities[i] - volatilities[j], 2) / (2 * 0.5^2)); // Gaussian kernel
} else {
adjacencyMatrices[i][j][l] = 0; // No self-loops
}
}
}
}
}
// Step 3: Propagate embeddings for each GNN
function propagateEmbeddings() {
for (int l = 0; l < 28; l++) { // For each GNN
for (int t = 0; t < propagationDepth; t++) { // Propagation steps
vars newEmbeddings[PAIRS][5];
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < 5; k++) {
newEmbeddings[i][k] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
newEmbeddings[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j][l] * nodeEmbeddings[j][k][l];
}
newEmbeddings[i][k] = ReLU(newEmbeddings[i][k]);
}
}
// Update embeddings
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < 5; k++) {
nodeEmbeddings[i][k][l] = newEmbeddings[i][k];
}
}
}
}
}
// Step 4: Aggregate embeddings across all GNNs
function aggregateEmbeddings() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < 5; k++) {
updatedEmbeddings[i][k] = 0;
for (int l = 0; l < 28; l++) {
updatedEmbeddings[i][k] += nodeEmbeddings[i][k][l];
}
updatedEmbeddings[i][k] /= 28; // Average across GNNs
}
}
}
// Step 5: Update kernel matrix using aggregated embeddings
function updateKernelMatrix() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
kernelMatrix[i][j] = exp(-dotProduct(updatedEmbeddings[i], updatedEmbeddings[j]) / (2 * 0.5^2)); // Gaussian kernel
}
}
}
// Step 6: Perform Kernel PCA
function performKernelPCA() {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < 3; j++) { // Top 3 components
reducedMatrix[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 7: Train neural network for threshold prediction
function trainNeuralNetwork() {
LayerPerceptron(10); // Hidden layer
LayerNormalize();
LayerPerceptron(1); // Output layer
NN = Train("ThresholdNN", reducedMatrix, thresholds, PAIRS);
}
// Step 8: Generate trade signals
function generateSignals() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
signals[i] = Predict(NN, reducedMatrix[i]);
}
}
// Step 9: Execute trades
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (signals[i] > 0.5) {
enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
} else if (signals[i] < -0.5) {
enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
}
// Main function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Calculate volatilities
calculateVolatilities();
// Step 2: Construct adjacency matrices
constructAdjacencyMatrices();
// Step 3: Propagate embeddings for each GNN
propagateEmbeddings();
// Step 4: Aggregate embeddings
aggregateEmbeddings();
// Step 5: Update kernel matrix
updateKernelMatrix();
// Step 6: Perform Kernel PCA
performKernelPCA();
// Step 7: Train neural network for thresholds
trainNeuralNetwork();
// Step 8: Generate trade signals
generateSignals();
// Step 9: Execute trades
executeTrades();
}
You are tasked with designing an advanced algorithmic trading strategy that integrates Kernel PCA and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to uncover hidden trading opportunities in a highly interconnected financial system of ð‘=28 currency pairs. The relationships between these pairs are nonlinear and dynamic, creating a computational challenge to extract actionable trading signals.
The Problem 1. Volatility Web Each currency pair ð¶ð‘– has a volatility ð‘‰ð‘–(ð‘¡) at time ð‘¡, evolving as:
ð¾ð‘–ð‘—(ð‘¡): Similarity between volatilities ð‘‰ð‘– and ð‘‰ð‘—, ðœŽ: Kernel bandwidth, dynamically adjusted based on volatility clustering:
σ(t) = σ₀ ⋅ (1 + κ ⋅ StdDev(V(t)))
3. Enhanced PCA Extract principal components from ð¾(ð‘¡) using Kernel PCA:
Eigenvalue Decomposition:
K(t) = V(t) ⋅ Λ(t) ⋅ V(t)^T
Where:
Λ(ð‘¡): Diagonal matrix of eigenvalues ðœ†ð‘˜(ð‘¡),ð‘‰(ð‘¡): Matrix of eigenvectors ð‘£ð‘˜(ð‘¡).
Projection: Compute the PCA-reduced features ð‘ð‘–(ð‘¡) for each currency pair:
Simulate ð‘‰ð‘–(ð‘¡) over 1000 ticks for all 28 currency pairs. Construct 28 GNNs using PCA-reduced features and adjacency matrices. Refine features through GNN propagation. Generate trading signals based on dynamic thresholds. Maximize cumulative returns with a Sharpe ratio above 2.0.
Code
#define PAIRS 28
#define COMPONENTS 3 // Number of principal components from PCA
#define GNN_LAYERS 2 // Number of GNN layers per GNN
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
// Variables
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Volatility for each pair
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS][28]; // Adjacency matrices for 28 GNNs
vars pcaReducedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // PCA-reduced features
vars gnnWeights[28][GNN_LAYERS][COMPONENTS][COMPONENTS]; // GNN weights for each GNN
vars gnnRefinedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // Refined features from GNNs
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars eigenvalues[PAIRS]; // Eigenvalues from PCA
vars eigenvectors[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Eigenvectors from PCA
vars reducedMatrix[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // Final reduced components
vars signals[PAIRS]; // Final trading signals
int lookback = 50;
int propagationDepth = 3; // GNN propagation depth
// Step 1: Calculate volatilities for all pairs
function calculateVolatilities() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
volatilities[i] = StdDev(series(price(CurrencyPairs[i])), lookback);
}
}
// Step 2: Construct adjacency matrices for each GNN
function constructAdjacencyMatrices(vars features[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]) {
for (int gnn = 0; gnn < 28; gnn++) { // Each GNN has its own adjacency matrix
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
double distance = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
distance += pow(features[i][k] - features[j][k], 2);
}
adjacencyMatrices[i][j][gnn] = exp(-distance / (2 * pow(0.5, 2))); // Gaussian kernel
}
}
}
}
// Step 3: Initialize GNN weights
function initializeGNNWeights() {
for (int gnn = 0; gnn < 28; gnn++) {
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMPONENTS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
gnnWeights[gnn][l][i][j] = random() * 0.1; // Small random initialization
}
}
}
}
}
// Step 4: Propagate features through each GNN
function propagateGNN(vars features[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]) {
vars tempFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS];
for (int gnn = 0; gnn < 28; gnn++) { // Process each GNN
for (int t = 0; t < propagationDepth; t++) { // Propagation steps
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
for (int m = 0; m < COMPONENTS; m++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j][gnn] * features[j][m] * gnnWeights[gnn][t][m][k];
}
}
tempFeatures[i][k] = max(0, tempFeatures[i][k]); // ReLU activation
}
}
// Update features for the next layer
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
features[i][k] = tempFeatures[i][k];
}
}
}
}
// Copy the refined features
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
gnnRefinedFeatures[i][k] = features[i][k];
}
}
}
// Step 5: Perform Kernel PCA
function performKernelPCA() {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) { // Use top COMPONENTS
reducedMatrix[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 6: Generate trading signals
function generateSignals() {
double mean = 0, stddev = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
mean += reducedMatrix[i][0];
}
mean /= PAIRS;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
stddev += pow(reducedMatrix[i][0] - mean, 2);
}
stddev = sqrt(stddev / PAIRS);
double threshold = mean + 1.0 * stddev;
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (reducedMatrix[i][0] > threshold) signals[i] = 1; // Buy
else if (reducedMatrix[i][0] < -threshold) signals[i] = -1; // Sell
else signals[i] = 0; // Hold
}
}
// Main function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Calculate volatilities
calculateVolatilities();
// Step 2: Perform Kernel PCA to reduce features
performKernelPCA();
// Step 3: Construct adjacency matrices for GNNs
constructAdjacencyMatrices(reducedMatrix);
// Step 4: Initialize GNN weights
initializeGNNWeights();
// Step 5: Apply GNN propagation
propagateGNN(reducedMatrix);
// Step 6: Generate trading signals
generateSignals();
// Step 7: Execute trades
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (signals[i] > 0) enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
else if (signals[i] < 0) enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
In the realm of market energies, 28 currency pairs, each represented as a celestial entity ð¶1,ð¶2,…,ð¶28, dance to the rhythms of volatility and interconnectedness. These entities are bound by the threads of a Volatility Web, which symbolizes the fluctuating relationships between their inner energies (volatilities). The goal is to achieve a state of market equilibrium, a harmonious alignment where profitable opportunities can be uncovered while respecting the natural dynamics of the system. ( Attached problem description file.)
Code
#define PAIRS 28
#define COMPONENTS 3 // Number of PCA components
#define GNN_LAYERS 2 // Number of GNN layers
#define ACTIONS 3 // Buy, Sell, Hold
// Variables
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
// Enhanced PCA, GNN, and Signal Variables
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars pcaReducedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // PCA-reduced features for each pair
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Adjacency matrices for GNNs
vars gnnWeights[GNN_LAYERS][COMPONENTS][COMPONENTS]; // GNN weights
vars gnnOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // GNN probabilities for Buy/Sell/Hold
vars similarityMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Cross-Entropy similarity matrix
vars refinedOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // Refined GNN probabilities
vars signals[PAIRS]; // Final trading signals
// Step 1: Perform Kernel PCA
function performKernelPCA() {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) { // Use top COMPONENTS
pcaReducedFeatures[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 2: Initialize GNN Weights
function initializeGNNWeights() {
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMPONENTS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
gnnWeights[l][i][j] = random() * 0.1; // Small random initialization
}
}
}
}
// Step 3: GNN Propagation
function propagateGNN() {
vars tempFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS];
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) { // GNN propagation layers
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
for (int m = 0; m < COMPONENTS; m++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j] * pcaReducedFeatures[j][m] * gnnWeights[l][m][k];
}
}
tempFeatures[i][k] = max(0, tempFeatures[i][k]); // ReLU activation
}
}
// Update PCA features for the next layer
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
pcaReducedFeatures[i][k] = tempFeatures[i][k];
}
}
}
// Generate probabilities (Buy/Sell/Hold) based on final GNN outputs
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
gnnOutputs[i][k] = random() * 0.1; // Placeholder for GNN probability outputs
}
}
}
// Step 4: Compute Cross-Entropy Similarity
function computeCrossEntropySimilarity() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
similarityMatrix[i][j] = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
similarityMatrix[i][j] -= gnnOutputs[i][k] * log(gnnOutputs[j][k] + 1e-8);
}
}
}
}
// Step 5: Refine GNN Outputs Using Similarity
function refineGNNOutputs() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
refinedOutputs[i][k] = 0;
double weightSum = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
refinedOutputs[i][k] += similarityMatrix[i][j] * gnnOutputs[j][k];
weightSum += similarityMatrix[i][j];
}
refinedOutputs[i][k] /= (weightSum + 1e-8); // Normalize
}
}
}
// Step 6: Generate Trading Signals
function generateSignals() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
signals[i] = refinedOutputs[i][0] - refinedOutputs[i][1]; // Buy-Sell difference
}
}
// Step 7: Execute Trades
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (signals[i] > 0) enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
else if (signals[i] < 0) enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
// Main Function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Perform Kernel PCA
performKernelPCA();
// Step 2: Initialize GNN weights
initializeGNNWeights();
// Step 3: Propagate GNN
propagateGNN();
// Step 4: Compute Cross-Entropy Similarity
computeCrossEntropySimilarity();
// Step 5: Refine GNN outputs
refineGNNOutputs();
// Step 6: Generate trading signals
generateSignals();
// Step 7: Execute trades
executeTrades();
}
A Game-Theoretic and Abstract Perspective: The Dance of Volatility
In the ever-unfolding theater of financial markets, imagine a dynamic stage where 28 players—currency pairs—engage in an intricate and ceaseless dance. Each player moves to the rhythm of the global economy, its steps choreographed by the forces of supply, demand, sentiment, and speculation. Yet, the rules of this dance are not static; they shift in response to unseen pressures, from political tremors to macroeconomic tides.
The problem before us is akin to deciphering the secret language of this dance. It is not merely about observing the movements but about understanding the hidden relationships—the subtle cues and responses that bind the dancers together. Game theory offers a lens through which we might glimpse the rules of this game. It teaches us that no dancer moves in isolation; every step, every pause, every flourish is shaped by the anticipation of others' moves.
In this game, volatility becomes a signal, a whisper of intent, echoing through the financial theater. Each player’s volatility reflects its internal tensions and external interactions, and collectively, these signals form a web of interdependencies. The challenge lies in untangling this web, not to still the dance, but to predict its next evolution.
The problem is also an abstraction of mathematical elegance. Imagine the players as entities in a multidimensional space, their positions defined by intricate patterns of volatility. This space is not flat but warped by nonlinearities, where proximity signifies similarity, and distance hints at independence. Yet, even the closest dancers may diverge when the music shifts.
The task is to map this space, not merely by observing the surface but by delving into its deeper dimensions. Enhanced techniques like principal component analysis allow us to distill the essence of the dance, reducing its complexity while preserving its soul. Graph structures emerge to connect the players, each edge a reflection of shared rhythms and mutual influence. These connections are not static; they evolve, adapting as the dancers respond to new melodies.
But here lies the heart of the puzzle: how do we assign meaning to these connections? How do we ensure that what we perceive as a pattern is not an illusion conjured by noise? The game is adversarial in nature, with uncertainty itself playing the role of a cunning opponent. It introduces randomness to confound our predictions, demanding that we refine our understanding, filter the signals, and discard the noise.
To navigate this space, we employ strategies that echo the principles of cooperation and competition. Graph neural networks, as players in their own right, enter the stage, modeling relationships and predicting movements. Yet, they, too, are fallible, requiring constant refinement through feedback and comparison. Cross-entropy becomes the arbiter, a measure of alignment between their outputs, guiding the networks to harmonize with the dance.
At its core, this problem challenges us to think deeply about strategy and foresight. It is not merely about predicting individual moves but about understanding the grand choreography. What happens when the music changes? When the connections between players weaken or intensify? How do we balance our desire for precision with the inevitability of uncertainty?
The solution lies not in imposing control but in embracing the fluidity of the game. It requires humility to recognize the limits of our understanding and the creativity to imagine new ways to learn. It demands an appreciation for the interplay of chaos and order, a respect for the dancers' autonomy, and the wisdom to act when the signals align, and the next move becomes clear. In this, the problem transcends finance, touching upon the universal dance of interconnection and adaptation.
Code
#define PAIRS 28
#define COMPONENTS 3 // Number of PCA components
#define GNN_LAYERS 2 // Number of GNN layers
#define ACTIONS 3 // Buy, Sell, Hold
// Variables
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
// Kernel PCA, GNN, and Signal Variables
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars pcaReducedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // PCA-reduced features for each pair
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Adjacency matrices for GNNs
vars gnnWeights[GNN_LAYERS][COMPONENTS][COMPONENTS]; // GNN weights
vars gnnOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // GNN probabilities for Buy/Sell/Hold
vars similarityMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Cross-Entropy similarity matrix
vars refinedOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // Refined GNN probabilities
vars signals[PAIRS]; // Final trading signals
// Step 1: Perform Kernel PCA
function performKernelPCA() {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) { // Use top COMPONENTS
pcaReducedFeatures[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 2: Initialize GNN Weights
function initializeGNNWeights() {
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMPONENTS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
gnnWeights[l][i][j] = random() * 0.1; // Small random initialization
}
}
}
}
// Step 3: GNN Propagation
function propagateGNN() {
vars tempFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS];
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) { // GNN propagation layers
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
for (int m = 0; m < COMPONENTS; m++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j] * pcaReducedFeatures[j][m] * gnnWeights[l][m][k];
}
}
tempFeatures[i][k] = max(0, tempFeatures[i][k]); // ReLU activation
}
}
// Update PCA features for the next layer
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
pcaReducedFeatures[i][k] = tempFeatures[i][k];
}
}
}
// Generate probabilities (Buy/Sell/Hold) based on final GNN outputs
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
gnnOutputs[i][k] = random() * 0.1; // Placeholder for GNN probability outputs
}
}
}
// Step 4: Compute Cross-Entropy Similarity
function computeCrossEntropySimilarity() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
similarityMatrix[i][j] = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
similarityMatrix[i][j] -= gnnOutputs[i][k] * log(gnnOutputs[j][k] + 1e-8);
}
}
}
}
// Step 5: Refine GNN Outputs Using Similarity
function refineGNNOutputs() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
refinedOutputs[i][k] = 0;
double weightSum = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
refinedOutputs[i][k] += similarityMatrix[i][j] * gnnOutputs[j][k];
weightSum += similarityMatrix[i][j];
}
refinedOutputs[i][k] /= (weightSum + 1e-8); // Normalize
}
}
}
// Step 6: Generate Trading Signals
function generateSignals() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
signals[i] = refinedOutputs[i][0] - refinedOutputs[i][1]; // Buy-Sell difference
}
}
// Step 7: Execute Trades
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (signals[i] > 0) enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
else if (signals[i] < 0) enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
// Main Function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Perform Kernel PCA
performKernelPCA();
// Step 2: Initialize GNN weights
initializeGNNWeights();
// Step 3: Propagate GNN
propagateGNN();
// Step 4: Compute Cross-Entropy Similarity
computeCrossEntropySimilarity();
// Step 5: Refine GNN outputs
refineGNNOutputs();
// Step 6: Generate trading signals
generateSignals();
// Step 7: Execute trades
executeTrades();
}
The Puzzle of Currency Waves 🌊💸 Imagine you're standing at a beach and watching the waves. Each wave is like a currency pair (e.g., EUR/USD or GBP/JPY) in the financial market. Some waves are big, some are small, and they all move differently. But here’s the tricky part: these waves aren’t moving randomly—they’re connected! ðŸŒ
Now, let’s pretend you’re a wave scientist. Your job is to figure out how these waves are connected and use that information to predict which wave will get bigger or smaller next. If you do it right, you can ride the perfect wave (make a smart trade) and avoid the ones that crash! ðŸ„â€â™‚ï¸
The Finance Game 🎮 In the real world of finance, these "waves" are actually something called volatility. Volatility tells us how much the prices of currency pairs are changing. Sometimes prices jump up and down a lot (big waves), and other times they stay calm (small waves).
But here's the big mystery: what makes one wave affect another?
The Big Question 🧠Let’s say we have 28 waves, one for each currency pair. If the EUR/USD wave gets bigger, does it make the GBP/JPY wave smaller? Or does it push all the waves to get bigger? Your job is to figure this out, just like a detective solving a mystery. 🕵ï¸â€â™€ï¸
To solve this puzzle, you’ll use a magical tool called Relative Volatility Spread Similarity. It helps us measure how much one wave (currency pair) is different from another. For example:
If EUR/USD is very calm and GBP/JPY is very wild, they’re very different. If both are wild, they’re similar.
Using the Magic Glasses ðŸ”✨ To make sense of all this, we use something like magic glasses called Enhanced PCA. It’s a way to focus on the most important parts of the puzzle and ignore the boring details.
Once we have the important pieces, we send them to a group of really smart robots called Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). These robots:
Look at how all the waves are connected. Share their findings with each other. Give us advice on whether to buy, sell, or hold currencies.
The Secret Sauce 🥣 But we don’t stop there! We check if the robots are working well by making them talk to each other. If two robots give very different advice, we ask, “Why are you so different?†and help them refine their answers. This is called Cross-Entropy Similarity, and it makes sure all the robots are working as a team.
The Goal 🎯 The goal of this whole game is to:
Predict the best waves (currency pairs) to ride. Make money while keeping risks low (don’t fall off your surfboard!). ðŸ„â€â™€ï¸ðŸ’°
Code
#define PAIRS 28
#define COMPONENTS 3 // Number of PCA components
#define GNN_LAYERS 2 // Number of GNN layers
#define ACTIONS 3 // Buy, Sell, Hold
#define LOOKBACK 100 // Lookback period for volatility calculation
#define VOL_KERNEL_WIDTH 0.5 // Width for Gaussian kernel
#define SIMILARITY_ALPHA 0.1 // Smoothing factor for similarity updates
// Declare currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
// Global Variables
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars pcaReducedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // PCA-reduced features for each pair
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Adjacency matrices for GNNs
vars gnnWeights[GNN_LAYERS][COMPONENTS][COMPONENTS]; // GNN weights
vars gnnOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // GNN probabilities for Buy/Sell/Hold
vars similarityMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Cross-Entropy similarity matrix
vars refinedOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // Refined GNN probabilities
vars signals[PAIRS]; // Final trading signals
// Utility Function: Calculate Rolling Volatility
function calcVolatility(string pair) {
asset(pair);
vars returns = series(log(priceClose() / priceClose(1)));
return StdDev(returns, LOOKBACK);
}
// Step 1: Compute Kernel Matrix
function computeKernelMatrix() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
vars sigma_i = series(calcVolatility(CurrencyPairs[i]));
vars sigma_j = series(calcVolatility(CurrencyPairs[j]));
vars volatilitySpread = series(abs(sigma_i[0] - sigma_j[0]));
kernelMatrix[i][j] = exp(-volatilitySpread[0]^2 / (2 * VOL_KERNEL_WIDTH^2));
}
}
}
// Step 2: Perform Enhanced PCA
function performEnhancedPCA() {
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
pcaReducedFeatures[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 3: Initialize GNN Weights
function initializeGNNWeights() {
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMPONENTS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
gnnWeights[l][i][j] = random() * 0.1; // Small random initialization
}
}
}
}
// Step 4: GNN Propagation
function propagateGNN() {
vars tempFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS];
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
for (int m = 0; m < COMPONENTS; m++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j] * pcaReducedFeatures[j][m] * gnnWeights[l][m][k];
}
}
tempFeatures[i][k] = max(0, tempFeatures[i][k]); // ReLU activation
}
}
// Update PCA features for the next layer
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
pcaReducedFeatures[i][k] = tempFeatures[i][k];
}
}
}
// Generate probabilities (Buy/Sell/Hold) based on final GNN outputs
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
gnnOutputs[i][k] = random() * 0.1; // Placeholder for GNN probability outputs
}
}
}
// Step 5: Compute Cross-Entropy Similarity
function computeCrossEntropySimilarity() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
similarityMatrix[i][j] = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
similarityMatrix[i][j] -= gnnOutputs[i][k] * log(gnnOutputs[j][k] + 1e-8);
}
}
}
}
// Step 6: Refine GNN Outputs Using Similarity
function refineGNNOutputs() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
refinedOutputs[i][k] = 0;
double weightSum = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
refinedOutputs[i][k] += similarityMatrix[i][j] * gnnOutputs[j][k];
weightSum += similarityMatrix[i][j];
}
refinedOutputs[i][k] /= (weightSum + 1e-8); // Normalize
}
}
}
// Step 7: Generate Trading Signals
function generateSignals() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
signals[i] = refinedOutputs[i][0] - refinedOutputs[i][1]; // Buy-Sell difference
}
}
// Step 8: Execute Trades
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (signals[i] > 0) enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]);
else if (signals[i] < 0) enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]);
}
}
// Main Function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Compute Kernel Matrix
computeKernelMatrix();
// Step 2: Perform Enhanced PCA
performEnhancedPCA();
// Step 3: Initialize GNN weights
initializeGNNWeights();
// Step 4: Propagate GNN
propagateGNN();
// Step 5: Compute Cross-Entropy Similarity
computeCrossEntropySimilarity();
// Step 6: Refine GNN outputs
refineGNNOutputs();
// Step 7: Generate trading signals
generateSignals();
// Step 8: Execute trades
executeTrades();
}
Imagine you are part of a study group of 28 students (representing the 28 currency pairs), and each student has their own unique strengths and weaknesses in different subjects like Math, Science, and Literature (representing market volatility). Each student’s performance changes over time depending on how much they study, external distractions, and collaboration with others in the group (representing market dynamics and interdependencies). Your goal is to create a dynamic and adaptive study plan that helps the whole group excel in an upcoming exam, even though you have limited time and resources.
Key Elements of the Problem Study Stress as Volatility:
Each student’s stress level represents their volatility. Some students get very stressed (high volatility), while others are calm and steady (low volatility). Stress changes over time based on how difficult the subject is and how much preparation they’ve done recently (like rolling standard deviations of their past "study returns"). The Principal of PCA (Principal Component Analysis):
You notice that not all topics are equally hard for everyone. Some topics like Algebra (or "Eigenvalues" in our original problem) affect most students' stress levels more than others, such as Creative Writing. To simplify the problem, you identify a few key topics that cause the most stress for the group. These topics act like "Principal Components," and focusing on them can explain most of the group’s challenges. The GNN (Study Group Network):
Some students are better at helping others because they understand connections between topics well (like connecting Algebra to Physics). These connections form a "network" of study helpers. The stronger the connections between two students (measured by how often they work together and help each other), the better the group performs. Entropy (Confidence in Preparation):
After each study session, you give every student three choices for their confidence: "I’m ready," "I’m nervous," or "I’m not sure" (representing Buy, Sell, Hold in trading). If students are very confident in their knowledge, their "entropy" is low (less uncertainty). If everyone is unsure, entropy is high. You use this entropy to adjust how much focus you should put on each student in the study plan. Dynamic Thresholds (Study Plan):
You realize that every student needs a unique threshold for when they are ready to move on to a new topic. Some students need more time (higher threshold), while others can switch topics quickly (lower threshold). The thresholds are dynamic and depend on: How much stress they’ve reduced recently (volatility change rate). How critical the topic is for the group (PCA contribution). How confident they feel (entropy of their confidence). The Exam as the Market:
The final test acts like the real-world trading market. If the study group can align their efforts (similar to finding trading signals), they maximize their overall performance (similar to the Sharpe Ratio for returns).
The Goal:
Help every student perform their best (like maximizing profits in trading). Minimize unnecessary stress and avoid overloading anyone (like minimizing risks and variance). Adapt the study plan dynamically to new challenges and feedback (like responding to changing market conditions).
The Problem:
Each student's stress level follows a random path (like a stochastic process) and is influenced by their natural abilities and study habits. The group's success depends on finding the optimal way to balance individual efforts and group collaboration. How can you create a study plan that dynamically adapts to each student’s needs, while also ensuring the group collectively performs well?
Code
#define PAIRS 28
#define COMPONENTS 3 // Number of PCA components
#define GNN_LAYERS 2 // Number of GNN layers
#define ACTIONS 3 // Buy, Sell, Hold
// Define currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
// Variables for PCA, GNN, and signals
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Current volatilities
vars volChangeRate[PAIRS]; // Volatility change rate
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars pcaReducedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // PCA-reduced features
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // GNN adjacency matrices
vars gnnWeights[GNN_LAYERS][COMPONENTS][COMPONENTS]; // GNN weights
vars gnnOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // GNN probabilities (Buy/Sell/Hold)
vars signals[PAIRS]; // Final trading signals
vars eigenvalues[COMPONENTS]; // Eigenvalues from PCA
// Step 1: Calculate Volatility and Change Rate
function calculateVolatility() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
asset(CurrencyPairs[i]);
vars logReturns = series(priceClose(0) / priceClose(1) - 1); // Log returns
volatilities[i] = sqrt(SMA(pow(logReturns, 2), 20)); // 20-bar rolling std dev
volChangeRate[i] = volatilities[i] - volatilities[i+1]; // Change rate
}
}
// Step 2: Perform Kernel PCA
function performKernelPCA() {
// Construct Kernel Matrix
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
kernelMatrix[i][j] = exp(-pow(volatilities[i] - volatilities[j], 2) / (2 * 0.1 * 0.1)); // Gaussian kernel
}
}
// Perform eigen decomposition (simplified example)
vars eigenvectors;
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
// Reduce dimensions using top COMPONENTS
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
pcaReducedFeatures[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 3: Initialize GNN Weights
function initializeGNNWeights() {
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMPONENTS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
gnnWeights[l][i][j] = random() * 0.1; // Small random initialization
}
}
}
}
// Step 4: GNN Propagation
function propagateGNN() {
vars tempFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS];
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
for (int m = 0; m < COMPONENTS; m++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j] * pcaReducedFeatures[j][m] * gnnWeights[l][m][k];
}
}
tempFeatures[i][k] = max(0, tempFeatures[i][k]); // ReLU activation
}
}
// Update PCA features for the next layer
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
pcaReducedFeatures[i][k] = tempFeatures[i][k];
}
}
}
// Final probabilities for Buy, Sell, Hold
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
gnnOutputs[i][k] = softmax(tempFeatures[i][k]); // Example output
}
}
}
// Step 5: Generate Trading Signals with PCA and GNN Thresholds
function generateSignals() {
// Calculate PCA Variance Contribution
var totalVariance = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
totalVariance += eigenvalues[k];
}
var pcaContribution = eigenvalues[0] / totalVariance; // Contribution of the top component
// Calculate GNN Entropy for each pair
vars gnnEntropy[PAIRS];
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
gnnEntropy[i] = 0;
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
gnnEntropy[i] -= gnnOutputs[i][k] * log(gnnOutputs[i][k] + 1e-8);
}
}
// Calculate Dynamic Thresholds with PCA and GNN
vars dynamicThresholdBuy[PAIRS];
vars dynamicThresholdSell[PAIRS];
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
var meanVolChangeRate = SMA(volChangeRate, PAIRS);
var stddevVolChangeRate = StdDev(volChangeRate, PAIRS);
// Adjust thresholds with PCA and GNN contributions
dynamicThresholdBuy[i] = meanVolChangeRate + 0.5 * stddevVolChangeRate * pcaContribution * (1 - gnnEntropy[i]);
dynamicThresholdSell[i] = meanVolChangeRate - 0.5 * stddevVolChangeRate * pcaContribution * (1 - gnnEntropy[i]);
}
// Generate Trading Signals
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
var gnnBuyProb = gnnOutputs[i][0];
var gnnSellProb = gnnOutputs[i][1];
signals[i] = gnnBuyProb - gnnSellProb; // Base signal
// Incorporate dynamic thresholds
if (signals[i] > dynamicThresholdBuy[i]) signals[i] = 1; // Strong Buy
else if (signals[i] < dynamicThresholdSell[i]) signals[i] = -1; // Strong Sell
else signals[i] = 0; // Hold
}
}
// Step 6: Execute Trades
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (signals[i] == 1) enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]); // Strong Buy
else if (signals[i] == -1) enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]); // Strong Sell
}
}
// Main Strategy Function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Calculate volatility and change rate
calculateVolatility();
// Perform kernel PCA
performKernelPCA();
// Initialize GNN weights (once)
if (is(INITRUN)) initializeGNNWeights();
// Propagate GNN
propagateGNN();
// Generate signals
generateSignals();
// Execute trades
executeTrades();
}
The Puzzle of Dynamic Currency Connections Background: Imagine you’re in charge of monitoring 28 students (representing currency pairs) in a math class. Each student has a different skill level and focus area (representing volatility). Sometimes they perform well, and sometimes they struggle—but there’s a pattern to it. When one student gets stuck on a tough topic, their struggle often spreads to nearby students (like a ripple effect of high volatility). Similarly, when one student is confident, it can boost the confidence of others nearby.
Your job is to figure out these patterns and decide:
Who needs help and who’s ready to move on? When to focus on certain students to improve the overall class performance. But here’s the catch:
The students form groups (like clusters), where some groups are more prone to challenges than others. Each student’s performance is influenced by their past performance (like habits) and their interactions with others in the group.
The Challenge: Track the Patterns:
You have to observe how often each student struggles or excels over time. Are there periods where the same students keep struggling (clustering)? Are there students who quickly bounce back from challenges? Form Study Groups:
Pair students based on how much they affect each other’s performance. If Student A’s struggles often lead to Student B struggling too, they should be in the same group. Use this to create a "map" of how the class interacts. Summarize Key Challenges:
Once you’ve mapped the class, find the topics or patterns that explain the majority of struggles. These are your "main challenges" that need solving. Predict the Next Struggles:
Based on their history and their group’s behavior, predict which students will need help next. This is your chance to act early and make the class stronger! Decide the Focus:
Each day, decide who you’ll focus on: who needs a boost, who can help others, and who’s ready to move on. Your decisions will affect the overall class performance.
Bonus Twist: As you monitor the class, the students’ behavior changes. New friendships form, others break apart, and some students get unexpectedly better or worse. Can you adapt your plan to these changes and keep the whole class improving?
Your Task: Identify the students’ struggles, find the hidden patterns in their interactions, and create a plan that helps the whole class succeed over time. The better your plan, the stronger the class becomes. Can you rise to the challenge and lead the class to success?
Code
#define PAIRS 28
#define COMPONENTS 3 // Number of PCA components
#define GNN_LAYERS 2 // Number of GNN layers
#define ACTIONS 3 // Buy, Sell, Hold
// Define currency pairs
string CurrencyPairs[PAIRS] = {
"EURUSD", "GBPUSD", "USDJPY", "GBPJPY", "USDCAD", "EURAUD", "EURJPY",
"AUDCAD", "AUDJPY", "AUDNZD", "AUDUSD", "CADJPY", "EURCAD", "EURCHF",
"EURGBP", "EURNZD", "GBPCAD", "GBPCHF", "NZDCAD", "NZDJPY", "NZDUSD",
"USDCHF", "CHFJPY", "AUDCHF", "GBPNZD", "NZDCHF", "CADCHF", "GBPAUD"
};
// Variables for PCA, GNN, and signals
vars volatilities[PAIRS]; // Current volatilities
vars volClustering[PAIRS]; // Volatility clustering scores
vars kernelMatrix[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // Kernel matrix for PCA
vars pcaReducedFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS]; // PCA-reduced features
vars timeSeriesFeatures[PAIRS]; // Time-series features (e.g., autocorrelation)
vars timeDependentFeatures[PAIRS]; // Time-dependent features (e.g., volatility lag)
vars adjacencyMatrices[PAIRS][PAIRS]; // GNN adjacency matrices
vars gnnWeights[GNN_LAYERS][COMPONENTS][COMPONENTS]; // GNN weights
vars gnnOutputs[PAIRS][ACTIONS]; // GNN probabilities (Buy/Sell/Hold)
vars signals[PAIRS]; // Final trading signals
vars eigenvalues[COMPONENTS]; // Eigenvalues from PCA
// Softmax function
var softmax(vars logits[], int index, int size) {
var sum = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < size; i++) {
sum += exp(logits[i]); // Exponentiate each value
}
return exp(logits[index]) / (sum + 1e-8); // Normalize by the sum, avoiding division by zero
}
// Step 1: Calculate Volatility and Clustering Scores
function calculateVolatilityAndClustering() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
asset(CurrencyPairs[i]);
vars logReturns = series(log(priceClose(0) / priceClose(1))); // Log returns
volatilities[i] = sqrt(SMA(pow(logReturns, 2), 20)); // 20-bar rolling std dev
// Calculate clustering using past volatilities
vars pastVolatilities = series(volatilities[i]); // Volatility series
volClustering[i] = SMA(pastVolatilities, 10) / stddev(pastVolatilities, 10); // Example metric
}
}
// Step 2: Extract Time-Series Features
function extractTimeSeriesFeatures() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
asset(CurrencyPairs[i]);
vars logReturns = series(log(priceClose(0) / priceClose(1))); // Log returns
// Autocorrelation as a feature
timeSeriesFeatures[i] = autocorrelation(logReturns, 5); // 5-lag autocorrelation
// Time-dependent feature: Volatility lag
timeDependentFeatures[i] = volatilities[i - 1]; // Previous volatility
}
}
// Step 3: Perform Enhanced PCA
function performEnhancedPCA() {
// Construct Kernel Matrix
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
double distance = pow(volatilities[i] - volatilities[j], 2) +
pow(volClustering[i] - volClustering[j], 2) +
pow(timeSeriesFeatures[i] - timeSeriesFeatures[j], 2);
kernelMatrix[i][j] = exp(-distance / (2 * 0.1 * 0.1)); // Gaussian kernel
}
}
// Perform eigen decomposition
vars eigenvectors;
eigenDecomposition(kernelMatrix, eigenvalues, eigenvectors);
// Reduce dimensions using top COMPONENTS
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
pcaReducedFeatures[i][j] = dotProduct(kernelMatrix[i], eigenvectors[j]);
}
}
}
// Step 4: Initialize GNN Weights
function initializeGNNWeights() {
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < COMPONENTS; i++) {
for (int j = 0; j < COMPONENTS; j++) {
gnnWeights[l][i][j] = random() * 0.1; // Small random initialization
}
}
}
}
// Step 5: GNN Propagation
function propagateGNN() {
vars tempFeatures[PAIRS][COMPONENTS];
for (int l = 0; l < GNN_LAYERS; l++) {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
for (int k = 0; k < COMPONENTS; k++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < PAIRS; j++) {
for (int m = 0; m < COMPONENTS; m++) {
tempFeatures[i][k] += adjacencyMatrices[i][j] * pcaReducedFeatures[j][m] * gnnWeights[l][m][k];
}
}
tempFeatures[i][k] = max(0, tempFeatures[i][k]); // ReLU activation
}
}
}
// Final probabilities for Buy, Sell, Hold using softmax
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
vars logits[ACTIONS]; // Placeholder for raw GNN output logits
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
logits[k] = tempFeatures[i][k]; // Assign the logits (raw outputs)
}
// Apply softmax to calculate probabilities
for (int k = 0; k < ACTIONS; k++) {
gnnOutputs[i][k] = softmax(logits, k, ACTIONS);
}
}
}
// Step 6: Generate Trading Signals
function generateSignals() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
var gnnBuyProb = gnnOutputs[i][0];
var gnnSellProb = gnnOutputs[i][1];
signals[i] = gnnBuyProb - gnnSellProb; // Base signal
// Threshold decision
if (signals[i] > 0.5) signals[i] = 1; // Strong Buy
else if (signals[i] < -0.5) signals[i] = -1; // Strong Sell
else signals[i] = 0; // Hold
}
}
// Step 7: Execute Trades
function executeTrades() {
for (int i = 0; i < PAIRS; i++) {
if (signals[i] == 1) enterLong(CurrencyPairs[i]); // Strong Buy
else if (signals[i] == -1) enterShort(CurrencyPairs[i]); // Strong Sell
}
}
// Main Strategy Function
function run() {
set(PLOTNOW);
// Step 1: Calculate volatility and clustering
calculateVolatilityAndClustering();
// Step 2: Extract time-series features
extractTimeSeriesFeatures();
// Step 3: Perform enhanced PCA
performEnhancedPCA();
// Step 4: Initialize GNN weights (once)
if (is(INITRUN)) initializeGNNWeights();
// Step 5: Propagate GNN
propagateGNN();
// Step 6: Generate trading signals
generateSignals();
// Step 7: Execute trades
executeTrades();
}
during searching something i stumbled over your thread. Looks very nice and impressive, started to read from page 1. I dont have optionsdata so i skipped that part. But your Gaussian channel adaptive moving average strategy made me curious. I copied your code and tried it on my Zorro. unfortunately i get a lot of compiler errors. Did you run those scripts with zorro? Or are they only fictional ZorroGPT generated codes based on your (very interesting) prompts?
partially the script is not in lite-c at all:
var filt = pow(a, i) * s + i * x * f[1] - (i >= 2 ? 36 * pow(x, 2) * f[2] : 0) + (i >= 3 ? 84 * pow(x, 3) * f[3] : 0) - (i >= 4 ? 126 * pow(x, 4) * f[4] : 0) + (i >= 5 ? 126 * pow(x, 5) * f[5] : 0) - (i >= 6 ? 84 * pow(x, 6) * f[6] : 0) + (i >= 7 ? 36 * pow(x, 7) * f[7] : 0) - (i >= 8 ? 9 * pow(x, 8) * f[8] : 0) + (i == 9 ? 1 * pow(x, 9) * f[9] : 0);
the "?" in between doesnt belong to the syntax of Zorro as far as i learned until now. at least i could not find it nor in expressions neither in comparisons ... or somewhere else. Is that in python? Besides that, there a re a lot syntax errors, misplacement of functions (does call first, and declare afterwards) and not defined variables at all ... its a shame i am not smart enough to figure out the formulas and the code by myself. Will there be a debug attempt ... maybe anyone else?
Thank you M_D for your kind words and interest. I am happy that you are sharing your thoughts so others might see some of your interests as inspiration for future developments,
I do understand that the code is not that perfect, but the errors, are to be solved with ZorroGPT, if you have any specific problem you feel you are unable to solve with ZorroGPT, please let me know, I will do my best to help you, Yeah and one more important improvement for our Zorro Platform, as we all use GPT for express developments, it will be only logical to solve bugs with the help of GPT, so you can use it more, and have a better understanding of your strategies, and ways to improve them.
Code
// Declare variables
var a, s, x; // Scalars used in calculations
int i; // Index variable
vars f[10]; // Array for coefficients or signal values
// Ensure the array 'f' has values before computation
f[0] = 1; f[1] = 2; f[2] = 3; f[3] = 4; f[4] = 5;
f[5] = 6; f[6] = 7; f[7] = 8; f[8] = 9; f[9] = 10; // Example initialization
// Compute 'filt' using ifelse() instead of ternary operators
var filt = pow(a, i) * s
+ ifelse(i >= 1, i * x * f[1], 0)
- ifelse(i >= 2, 36 * pow(x, 2) * f[2], 0)
+ ifelse(i >= 3, 84 * pow(x, 3) * f[3], 0)
- ifelse(i >= 4, 126 * pow(x, 4) * f[4], 0)
+ ifelse(i >= 5, 126 * pow(x, 5) * f[5], 0)
- ifelse(i >= 6, 84 * pow(x, 6) * f[6], 0)
+ ifelse(i >= 7, 36 * pow(x, 7) * f[7], 0)
- ifelse(i >= 8, 9 * pow(x, 8) * f[8], 0)
+ ifelse(i == 9, pow(x, 9) * f[9], 0);
// Output result
printf("The value of filt is: %f", filt);
Can you tell me why do you think the syntax of the flit variable doesn't seem to be right, you can also use GPT to resolve it... I used the correction and explained to GPT that the Trinary operators Lite-C does not support the comparison ? expression : expression; syntax. Use the ifelse statement instead. x = (x<0 ? -1 : 1); // C/C++ x = ifelse(x<0,-1,1); // lite-C
and within less than 3 seconds the above code was produced.
If you sit with the ZorroGPT, any formula you seem to have difficulty in understanding, ZorroGPT can assist you with no problem and Think of having a PhD level programmer, helping you in any problem you have 24/7, and resolve any problem you have.
Here in the following video you can see how a Quant Trader(MSc) is using GPT for quite hard core problems in algorithmic trading:
(Very Soon I am going to share a new level of Algorithmic Trading Ideas : but for Inspiration please read the introduction and get ready for the roller coaster ride :-)
The Hydra's Awakening: A Tale of AI Triumph and Market Symphony
The trading floor of Quantum Markets was a place of quiet intensity, where the glow of monitors and the hum of machines filled the air. The Hydra, a new AI-powered trading engine, was the crown jewel of the firm, capable of analyzing billions of market scenarios in real-time. It was a system designed to adapt and thrive in the unpredictable chaos of global markets, its neural networks fine-tuned to find patterns in the noise. As the clock ticked toward midnight, the final touches were made to the system. The Hydra was about to go live, and its creators gathered around with anticipation. This was no ordinary system. It was a machine designed not just to react to market conditions but to predict them, to foresee the subtle shifts in price and volume that could make or break a trading strategy. The system’s core was powered by a fleet of GPUs, each tasked with processing specific aspects of market behavior. Elena, the lead quant developer, stood at her workstation, her eyes fixed on the logs streaming across her screen. She had spent months perfecting the Hydra’s architecture, ensuring that each of its processes ran in perfect harmony. Tonight would be its first real test.
As the system went live, the Hydra sprang into action. Streams of data poured in from global exchanges, and the GPUs hummed with activity. Each core of the Hydra represented a different part of the system, processing patterns, analyzing order books, and calculating optimal entry and exit points. For the first few moments, everything seemed flawless. Predictions flashed across the screens, showing potential trades with astonishing accuracy. Traders watched in awe as the Hydra processed millions of combinations, sifting through the noise of the markets to find hidden opportunities. It was a sight to behold, a perfect symphony of data and computation. But then, something changed. At first, it was subtle, a slight delay in one of the streams. Then another. The GPUs, once fully engaged, began to slow. The Hydra’s once-flawless performance faltered, and the predictions on the screens grew less frequent. Elena’s heart sank as she realized something was wrong. The Hydra, designed to process billions of scenarios, was now crawling, its once-mighty engine reduced to a single struggling core.
Elena’s mind raced as she dove into the system’s logs, searching for the source of the problem. The data was coming in as expected, but the processing speed had dropped dramatically. She watched as the tasks queued up, each waiting its turn to access the GPU. It was as if the Hydra’s many heads were fighting over the same resources, unable to share the workload efficiently. The once-mighty machine had become a bottleneck, its potential trapped by its own design. As the minutes ticked by, the problem grew worse. One by one, the Hydra’s cores went idle, leaving a single process to carry the load. The traders, who had been so confident in the system’s abilities, began to murmur with concern. If the Hydra couldn’t recover, the night’s trading opportunities would slip away, taking with them the chance to prove the system’s worth. Elena knew she had to act quickly. The logs revealed the problem: the GPU, despite its power, was being overwhelmed by the demands of the Hydra’s processes. Each core was trying to access the GPU simultaneously, creating a bottleneck that slowed the entire system. It was a classic case of resource contention, but solving it would be no easy task.
Elena’s fingers flew across the keyboard as she implemented a series of changes. First, she adjusted the system to limit the number of active processes, ensuring that the GPU wasn’t overloaded. Then she added synchronization points, forcing the processes to wait their turn rather than compete for resources. Finally, she implemented a dynamic memory allocation system, allowing the GPU to prioritize smaller, faster tasks over larger, more resource-intensive ones. As the changes went live, the Hydra began to recover. One by one, its cores sprang back to life, each taking its share of the workload. The GPU usage surged, and the predictions on the screens grew more frequent. The traders watched in amazement as the system roared back to life, processing data with a speed and precision they had never seen before. But just as things seemed to be stabilizing, another issue emerged. The changes had solved the immediate problem, but they had also introduced new challenges. The synchronization points, while effective, had created delays in the system, slowing down the overall processing speed. The dynamic memory allocation, designed to prioritize smaller tasks, was causing larger tasks to wait longer than expected. It was a delicate balancing act, and Elena knew that even the smallest misstep could cause the system to falter again.
As the night wore on, Elena continued to fine-tune the Hydra. She adjusted the synchronization points, optimizing them for the specific demands of the trading environment. She refined the memory allocation system, ensuring that tasks were prioritized based on their impact on the overall strategy. And she worked tirelessly to ensure that each core of the Hydra operated in harmony with the others. By dawn, the system was running more efficiently than ever. The Hydra’s cores worked in perfect sync, processing billions of scenarios with ease. The GPU, once a bottleneck, was now a well-oiled machine, handling the demands of the system without breaking a sweat. The traders, who had been on the verge of losing faith in the system, were now convinced of its potential. The Hydra had not only recovered but had exceeded their expectations, delivering results that no human trader could match.
But for Elena, the victory was bittersweet. She knew that the system’s success was only temporary, that the markets would continue to evolve and that new challenges would arise. The Hydra, powerful as it was, would need constant care and attention to stay ahead of the game. And so, as the traders celebrated their newfound edge, Elena sat at her workstation, already planning the next set of improvements. She knew that the real test of the Hydra’s abilities was yet to come, and she was determined to ensure that it was ready for whatever the markets might throw its way. The trading floor buzzed with excitement, but Elena’s focus remained unshaken. The Hydra, her creation, was alive, and she would do whatever it took to keep it thriving.
As the sun rose over Quantum Markets, the Hydra’s journey had only just begun. Its story, a tale of ambition, adversity, and innovation, was far from over. For in the world of algorithmic trading, the only constant is change, and the Hydra, like its namesake, would need to adapt and grow to survive. And so, with the system stabilized and the future uncertain, Elena prepared for the challenges ahead, knowing that the true measure of the Hydra’s success would not be found in its past achievements but in its ability to navigate the unknown.
It is kind of very hard to work with a platform that has very tight memory management, while memory management doesn't have any detailed documentation, and the whole Zorro platform is closed, no direct access to how data structures are organized, which makes it very hard to work with other utilities being used by other platforms like Python... and synchronizing between them for HFT, is a very serious challenge. I think the amount of time invested in developing the platform in relation to how many people have the ability to advance faster, without having too many challenges with interfacing different platforms together, is a serious limit on the amount of users that can take of the advantages of Zorro Project.
Thank you TipmyPip for showcasing ZorroGPT and for sharing these examples of outputs. I am fascinated and curious. Do you have a background as a quant? Thanks again for the inspirational work.
Dear OptimusPrime, a very creative name, Thank you so much for your kind words, the short answer would be, my imagination is never limited by definitions, but that would be too serious for quite a demonstration. I am very knowledgeable thanks to AI, if I convey to you how the system of definitions would try to limit your success, you would be amazed how fast your mind can adapt, while true adaptation comes from very hard struggles. I am very fascinated by Graph Theory, Chaos, And Neural Networks. (Gee, You can't imagine how much I appreciate your kind words.)
Thank you once again from your time investment in our common interests... ZorroGPT.
But I would like to add, because of Zorro Trader, some of my ambitions have become even higher. Thanks to this marvelous project, and the team of Zorro Developers. It is really surprising how open source projects can change the world, While DeepSeek is just one proof of the concept, Linux would be a milestone, But If ZorroTrader becomes the next big thing, even for the most curious minds, a Commercial version with full source code, would make the team of developers raise to new heights, and be famous even more than Microsoft.
(* Helper function to check if a queen can be placed at (row, col) *)
isSafe[board_, row_, col_] :=
And @@ (And[# != row, # + board[[#]] != row + col, # - board[[#]] != row - col] & /@ Range[col - 1]);
(* Recursive function to solve the 9-queens problem *)
solveQueens[board_, col_] :=
If[col > 9, (* If all queens are placed, return the solution *)
Print[board];,
(* Else, try placing the queen in each row of the current column *)
Do[
If[isSafe[board, row, col],
solveQueens[ReplacePart[board, col -> row], col + 1]; (* Recur for the next column *)
],
{row, 1, 9}
]
];
A graph of Queens on the Board of Financial Steps, leading to a test for checkmate in every direction.
Code
#include <stdio.h>
#define N 9 // Board size for the 9-queens problem
// Function to check if a queen can be placed at board[row][col]
int isSafe(int board[N], int row, int col) {
int i;
for(i = 0; i < col; i++) {
if(board[i] == row ||
board[i] - i == row - col ||
board[i] + i == row + col)
return 0; // Not safe
}
return 1; // Safe position
}
// Recursive function to solve the 9-queens problem
void solveQueens(int board[N], int col) {
if(col >= N) { // If all queens are placed, print the solution
printf("\nSolution: ");
int i;
for(i = 0; i < N; i++)
printf("%d ", board[i] + 1); // Convert 0-based to 1-based
printf("\n");
return;
}
// Try placing a queen in each row of the current column
int row;
for(row = 0; row < N; row++) {
if(isSafe(board, row, col)) {
board[col] = row; // Place queen
solveQueens(board, col + 1); // Recur for the next column
board[col] = 0; // Backtrack
}
}
}
// Main function to initialize the board and start solving
void main() {
int board[N] = {0}; // Initialize board with all zeroes
solveQueens(board, 0); // Start recursion from column 0
}
And another version :
Code
#include <stdio.h>
#define N 9 // Board size for the 9-queens problem
// Function to check if a queen can be placed at board[row][col]
int isSafe(int board[N], int row, int col) {
int i;
for (i = 0; i < col; i++) {
if (board[i] == row ||
board[i] - i == row - col ||
board[i] + i == row + col)
return 0; // Not safe
}
return 1; // Safe position
}
// Function in `f(x) = f(x - 1)` form
int solveQueens(int board[N], int col) {
if (col == 0) return 1; // Base case: when col reaches 0, return success
int prev = solveQueens(board, col - 1); // Recursive call f(x) = f(x - 1)
if (prev == 0) return 0; // If previous step failed, return failure
int row;
for (row = 0; row < N; row++) {
if (isSafe(board, row, col - 1)) { // Check previous column
board[col - 1] = row;
return 1; // Solution found
}
}
return 0; // No solution found, return failure
}
// Main function to initialize the board and start solving
void main() {
int board[N] = {0}; // Initialize board with all zeroes
solveQueens(board, N); // Start recursion from column N (reverse order)
}
The war had no beginning. It had no end. It simply was. Two great factions—the Legion of the Everlasting Bastion and the Phantom Raiders—had waged battle for so long that neither side remembered why they fought. The battlefield itself was fluid, ever-changing, as though it had a will of its own. The Everlasting Bastion built fortresses, great walls that stood firm against any siege. Their architects were masterful, each new fortress stronger than the last, each barricade more impenetrable than the one before it. The Phantom Raiders were not an army in the traditional sense. They were shadows, warriors who struck where the walls were weakest, never lingering, always adapting. No matter how high the Bastion built, no matter how thick their defenses, the Raiders always found a way through.
The war was not one of brute force. It was something more intricate, something that felt less like battle and more like… a pattern. And patterns, once formed, are nearly impossible to break.
Chapter One: The General’s Burden
High General Oren stood atop the walls of Fortress Aegis, surveying the endless landscape of trenches, towers, and barricades. The engineers below worked ceaselessly, reinforcing weak points, expanding the fortifications, ensuring that this stronghold would be the one to hold.
But deep down, Oren knew the truth. They had said the same thing about Fortress Halcyon before it fell. And Citadel Varn before that. And Bastion Ironhold before that. No matter how strong they built, the Raiders always adapted. He turned to Master Architect Lysara, the woman whose mind had designed countless fortresses, each one an evolution of the last. Lysara had long since abandoned the arrogance of thinking any fortress could last forever. “The Raiders are learning faster,†Oren said.
Lysara nodded. “It’s as if they already know how to dismantle what we haven’t even finished building.†That statement chilled Oren. If that were true, then this war was not just a battle of walls and sieges. It was something far more insidious. He gazed beyond the walls, into the distant haze where the Phantom Raiders gathered. He imagined them not as an enemy force, but as something more abstract—an echo of their own decisions, coming back to haunt them. And then the thought occurred to him. What if our own fortresses are creating the very weaknesses they exploit?
Chapter Two: The Phantom’s Shadow
Far from the great walls of Aegis, Phantom Lord Kael stood with his commanders, studying the latest defenses erected by the Everlasting Bastion. At a glance, the fortress was impenetrable.
But Kael knew better. The Raiders never attacked blindly. They didn’t storm walls with brute force. They didn’t waste men in pointless battles. They studied, they adapted, they exploited. They did not simply react to fortifications; they used them. His second-in-command, Shadowmaster Veylen, spoke softly. “The weak point will emerge soon. It always does.†Kael turned his gaze to the towering walls and traced an unseen path in his mind. He had done this before. Find the opening. Strike. Move on. But something about this battle felt different. He had spent years leading the Phantom Raiders, and yet… he had never asked himself a simple question. Why do the weak points always emerge? His forces never broke through the same way twice. Every siege was different. Every assault required new tactics. Yet, no matter how much the Bastion evolved… The flaws were always there. And then the thought occurred to him. What if the Bastion isn’t just reacting to us? What if it’s shaping itself around our attacks? The realization shook him. It was as if the battlefield was alive, responding to each decision before it was even made. And if that were true…Then neither side was actually in control.
Chapter Three: The Fractured Reality
Both generals, on opposite sides of the war, reached the same conclusion. The battle was no longer about fortresses and invasions. It was something deeper. Something neither side fully understood. Oren and Lysara devised an unconventional plan. “What if we don’t reinforce our defenses?†Oren asked. Lysara’s brow furrowed. “That’s suicide.†“Not if we’re right,†Oren said. “If the Phantom Raiders only attack because we strengthen our walls, then what happens if we stop strengthening them?†Lysara’s breath caught. The idea was madness. But what if it worked? Meanwhile, Kael and Veylen devised their own experiment.
“What if we stop attacking weak points?†Kael asked. Veylen’s eyes narrowed. “That’s the only way we win.â€
“Is it?†Kael asked. “What if attacking is what’s causing new weaknesses to appear? What if, instead of exploiting the gaps, we reinforce them?†The Raiders had always been shadows. But this time, Kael issued an order that no Raider had ever given. “Hold your ground.â€
And at the same moment, Oren issued an order that no Bastion had ever given. “Stand down.â€
The battlefield froze. For the first time in history… nothing happened. No walls were built. No attacks were launched.
It was as if reality itself hesitated—as if the very existence of the war had depended on the cycle continuing. And then…Something began to collapse.
Chapter Four: The Breaking of the Cycle
As the fortresses stood untouched and the Raiders remained motionless, the landscape itself began to unravel. The ground beneath them fractured. The sky above them wavered, as if it had only ever been a painted canvas stretched too thin. Oren and Kael both watched in horror as the truth revealed itself. This was not a war.
It was a pattern. One that had been running for so long that neither side had realized they were trapped inside it. The Bastion had never truly been building fortresses—they had been shaping the conditions for their own downfall. The Raiders had never truly been finding weaknesses—they had been carving them into existence with every assault. It had never been about strength or strategy. It had been about the structure of the war itself.
And now that they had both stepped outside of it—refused to play their roles—the entire system was breaking apart.
Epilogue: The Silent Observer
As the last walls crumbled and the last shadows vanished, something watched from beyond the battlefield. Something outside the war, something that had never taken part in the endless cycle but had been watching all along. Something waiting. Because if a pattern collapses, it does not simply end—it creates the conditions for something new to begin. And just before the battlefield dissolved completely, both generals heard the same whispered voice in their minds:
I love it! I dabbled in chess programming for several years and created a private aggressive port of Stockfish for my own use. (I called it Primordial.) Very nice! These interests definitely help when it comes to coding for wealth accumulation. I am using ZorroGPT right now and I absolutely love it.
Do you see something in the story, you didn't see before? it seems always if you look deeper, you might find that your solution doesn't seem to be noticed because we all are limited by the light we create to see. But it is not the only solution that hides within your own creation, but I suppose because you love it, it would be quite a struggle to see why two parts are actually related to our common interests.
Abstract Mathematical Construct Let ð’° be an abstract process space, where elements undergo transformations based on evolving conditions.
1. Core Elements & Definitions We define a mapping over ð’°, denoted as:
ð’³:ð’°Ã—ð‘…×ð‘→ð’°
where each instance ð’°â‚™ consists of a triple:
ð’°ð‘›=(ð’«ð‘›,ð’®ð‘›,ð’´ð‘›)
where:
ð’«ð‘› ∈ â„ represents a continuous scalar adjustment. ð’®ð‘› ∈ â„• represents a discrete state magnitude. ð’´ð‘› ∈ ð’° represents an evolving reference structure.
2. Transformation Rule A process 𒜠applies adjustments to ð’°, evolving it under a conditionally propagated mapping:
ð’³(ð’°ð‘›,ð’«ð‘›,ð’®ð‘›)={ ∅, ð’®ð‘› ≤0 otherwise (ð’«ð‘›,ð’®ð‘›,ð’´ð‘›) } This transformation continues under the presence of a binary condition.
3. Conditional Evolution A transition function ð’¯ is introduced, acting within a probabilistic structure:
ð’«ð‘› undergoes a gradual decrement by δ. ð’®ð‘› undergoes quantized contraction. ð‘‹ð‘› ∈ {0,1} is determined by an independent stochastic event.
4. Underlying Structure The transformation ð’¯ ensures a structured evolution, yet never explicitly defines iteration or recursion.
This ensures that, over an extended progression, the transformation reaches a terminal state, albeit through non-deterministic yet structured steps.
Fundamental Definitions Let ð’µ be a class of structures evolving over successive transformative interactions, denoted as:
ð’µð‘›=(ð’«ð‘›,ð’¬ð‘›,ð’µð‘›âˆ’1)
where:
ð’«ð‘› ∈ â„ represents a principal scalar undergoing progressive adjustments. ð’¬ð‘› ∈ â„ represents an external perturbation affecting state transitions. ð’µð‘›{n-1} ∈ ð’µ provides an implicit reference to prior evolutionary states. A transformation ð’® governs the system, dynamically modifying ð’«ð‘› under structured dependencies.
2. Evolutionary Process: Perturbation-Driven Adaptation We define an adjustment operator ð’¯ acting over ð’µ, modifying the system based on a decaying propagative rule:
ð’«ð‘› recursively inherits the prior state ð’µð‘›{n-1}. ð’¬ð‘› is an external stochastic perturbation, influencing transitions. Δ represents a structured bias introduced in every step. 𜀠scales the internal transformation based on prior conditions. This formulation inherently adapts based on preceding influences while adjusting dynamically due to probabilistic perturbations.
3. Probabilistic Interference Mechanism A perturbation generator ð’«ð’³ : ℠→ {0,1} defines interference based on an uncertain external process, akin to selective disruption mechanisms:
ð’«ð’³ enforces an external intervention with probability p. The scalar λ dictates the intensity of modification when intervention occurs. The process introduces non-deterministic fluctuations influencing the evolution.
4. Emergent Behavior & Structured Adaptation By applying repeated transformations, the structure of ð’µ evolves in a way that balances prior adjustments while reacting to perturbative influences. The final form expresses a regulated adaptive process, where the outcome reflects both historical dependencies and external interactions.
For sufficiently large n, the process asymptotically stabilizes under:
where the cumulative perturbations regulate the ultimate adjustment.
Who among the minds that wander sees war not as blood and steel, But as a silent drift of shifting states, where choice and chance congeal? Who discerns in walls that crumble the weight of forms unseen, Where every strike, a measured shift, shapes fate's unwritten scheme?
Who shall trace, in veiled equations, the battlefield's silent code, Where power bends, where fate unfolds, yet none escape the road?
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import networkx as nx
# Create a directed graph
G = nx.DiGraph()
# Recursive function to generate the war recursion tree with unique labels
def add_war_nodes(graph, parent, depth, max_depth):
if depth > max_depth:
return
# Generate unique battle names
left_battle = f"Battle-{depth}L"
right_battle = f"Battle-{depth}R"
# Add edges to represent battles branching from strategic decisions
graph.add_edge(parent, left_battle)
graph.add_edge(parent, right_battle)
# Recursively create deeper battle strategies
add_war_nodes(graph, left_battle, depth + 1, max_depth)
add_war_nodes(graph, right_battle, depth + 1, max_depth)
# Root node representing the beginning of war decisions
G.add_node("War Begins")
# Generate recursive war strategy tree
add_war_nodes(G, "War Begins", 1, 5) # Depth of recursion is 5
# Set up figure size
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 10))
# Recalculate positions for better label visibility
pos = nx.spring_layout(G, seed=42)
# Draw nodes and edges without labels to prevent overlap
nx.draw(G, pos, with_labels=False, node_color="black", edge_color="gray", node_size=200)
# Draw labels separately in red with a white background for clarity
for node, (x, y) in pos.items():
plt.text(x, y + 0.03, node, fontsize=9, ha='center', color="red",
bbox=dict(facecolor="white", edgecolor="none", boxstyle="round,pad=0.2"))
# Set the title of the plot
plt.title("The War of Shifting Fronts - Hidden Recursion Tree with Clear Labels")
# Show the final visualization
plt.show()
It would surprise you but every game is the ending of conditions for a probable game that inspires the rules to fall apart. This code can create a highly complex adaptive strategy.
Code
// Structure representing a war decision node
typedef struct {
char name[50]; // Fixed-size character array for name
int strength; // Hidden game-theoretic influence
int risk; // Determines adaptability to opposition
} BattleNode;
// Global statistics variables
int battleCount = 0;
var totalStrength = 0;
var totalRisk = 0;
int maxStrength = 0;
int minRisk = 100; // Start with a high value to track lowest risk
// Function to generate a pseudo-random number in a range (Zorro's method)
int randomInt(int min, int max) {
return min + (int)((max - min) * random());
}
// Recursive function to simulate war strategies with game-theoretic decisions
void simulateBattle(BattleNode* battle, int depth, int maxDepth) {
if (depth > maxDepth) return; // Base case: stop recursion
// Generate random strategy values using Zorro's `random()` function
battle->strength = randomInt(1, 100);
battle->risk = randomInt(1, 100); // Ensuring no negative values
// Update statistics
battleCount++;
totalStrength += battle->strength;
totalRisk += battle->risk;
if (battle->strength > maxStrength) maxStrength = battle->strength;
if (battle->risk < minRisk) minRisk = battle->risk;
// Debugging: Print battle details to log
printf("\n[Battle %d] %s | Strength: %d | Risk: %d",
battleCount, battle->name, battle->strength, battle->risk);
// Hidden recursive expansion influenced by game theory
if (battle->strength > battle->risk) {
battle->strength += randomInt(1, 50);
battle->risk -= randomInt(1, 20);
} else {
battle->strength -= randomInt(1, 30);
battle->risk += randomInt(1, 10);
}
// Ensure risk does not go negative
if (battle->risk < 0) battle->risk = 0;
// Recursively simulate further battles
if (depth + 1 <= maxDepth) {
BattleNode nextBattle;
sprintf(nextBattle.name, "%s-%d", battle->name, depth);
simulateBattle(&nextBattle, depth + 1, maxDepth);
}
}
// Function to display final statistics
void displayStatistics() {
printf("\n--- War Simulation Statistics ---");
printf("\nTotal Battles Simulated: %d", battleCount);
if (battleCount > 0) {
printf("\nAverage Strength: %.2f", totalStrength / (var)battleCount);
printf("\nAverage Risk: %.2f", totalRisk / (var)battleCount);
}
printf("\nMax Strength Encountered: %d", maxStrength);
printf("\nMin Risk Encountered: %d", minRisk);
printf("\n--------------------------------\n");
}
// Main function to trigger the war simulation in Zorro
void run() {
if (is(INITRUN)) { // Run only once at the start
BattleNode root;
strcpy(root.name, "War Begins");
simulateBattle(&root, 1, 5); // Start recursive war simulation
// Display statistics at the end
displayStatistics();
}
}
Here are some statistics to test :
Code
[Battle 4] War Begins-1-2-3 | Strength: 82 | Risk: -13
[Battle 5] War Begins-1-2-3-4 | Strength: 77 | Risk: 17
--- War Simulation Statistics ---
Total Battles Simulated: 5
Average Strength: -2.00
Average Risk: -1.80
Max Strength Encountered: 82
Min Risk Encountered: -79
--------------------------------
Recursive Market Maker Algorithm in Algorithmic Trading
In an algorithmic trading system, we need to design a market maker algorithm that balances liquidity provision and adversarial trading risk. The algorithm must predict optimal bid/ask spreads while ensuring resilience to adverse selection.
We define:
A recursive graph-based order book model, where orders form a tree of limit order dependencies. A recursive game-theoretic strategy, where the market maker competes against adversarial high-frequency traders (HFTs). Each function depends on the other recursively, making an iterative solution nearly impossible.
Graph Theory Component: Recursive Order Book Graph We define an order book as a directed graph, where:
Nodes represent limit orders. Edges represent dependencies (e.g., order A at $100 depends on order B at $99). The graph grows recursively, as new limit orders are placed based on past orders.
Function 1: Recursive Order Book Growth
Code
typedef struct Order {
double price;
int size;
double spread;
int parentIndex;
} Order;
void addOrder(Order* orderBook, int index, double price, int size, int totalOrders) {
if (index >= totalOrders) return;
price = randomizePrice(price + random() * 5, VOLATILITY * (0.8 + random() * 0.6));
size = generateOrderSize(MAX_ORDER_SIZE);
double spread = clamp(0.007 + random() * 0.025, 0.007, 0.04); // Spread cannot be negative
orderBook[index].price = price;
orderBook[index].size = size;
orderBook[index].spread = spread;
if (index > 0)
orderBook[index].parentIndex = index - 1;
else
orderBook[index].parentIndex = -1;
print(TO_LOG, " Order Added: Index %d | Price: %.4f | Size: %d | Spread: %.5f", index, price, size, spread);
if (random() < 0.75 && index + 1 < totalOrders) {
int newSize = generateOrderSize(size * (0.8 + random() * 0.3));
addOrder(orderBook, index + 1, price - 0.01 * randomInt(1, 12), newSize, totalOrders);
}
}
Game Theory Component: Recursive Market Maker Pricing Now, we must determine optimal bid/ask spreads to balance market efficiency and profitability.
A recursive game-theoretic function models how:
The market maker sets spreads recursively. HFTs attack weak spreads by executing trades that maximize adverse selection.
Function 2: Recursive Bid/Ask Adjustment Based on Game Theory
Risk Diversification in Portfolio Optimization Using XOR-Based Asset Selection
In financial markets, we want to select two assets from a given portfolio that exhibit the highest volatility divergence while maintaining decorrelation to maximize risk-adjusted returns.
Mathematical Formulation 1. Portfolio Assets Representation Let ð´ be a set of assets in a portfolio:
ð´={ð‘Ž1,ð‘Ž2,...,ð‘Žð‘›} Each asset ð‘Žð‘– is associated with a historical return vector ð‘…ð‘– , where: ð‘…ð‘– = (ð‘Ÿð‘–,1,ð‘Ÿð‘–,2,...,ð‘Ÿð‘–,ð‘‡) for 𑇠time periods.
Each asset return sequence is represented in binary encoding (Bitwise representation of normalized returns), denoted by:
ðµð‘–=ð‘“(ð‘…ð‘–), ðµð‘–∈ð‘ 2ð‘‡â€‹ where ð‘“(ð‘…ð‘–) is a transformation that converts returns into binary sequences.
2. Objective: Find the Maximum XOR Pair We define the XOR distance metric between two asset return sequences:
XOR(ðµð‘–,ðµð‘—) = ðµð‘–⊕ðµð‘— ​ where ⊕ represents the bitwise XOR operation.
The objective is to maximize the XOR value over all pairs (ð‘–,ð‘—):(ð‘–∗,ð‘—∗) = argâ¡maxâ¡ ð‘–,ð‘—∈ð´,ð‘–≠ð‘—
XOR(ðµð‘–,ðµð‘—)(i ∗ ,j ∗ )=arg max(i,j∈A,i≠j)​ such that: Corr(ð‘…ð‘–∗,ð‘…ð‘—∗)<ðœ
where Corr(ð‘…ð‘–,ð‘…ð‘—) is the correlation between asset return sequences, and ðœ is a pre-defined correlation threshold.
Computational Finance Insight The higher the XOR value, the greater the return divergence between the two assets. This ensures that choosing assets based on MaxXor selects assets that move in highly uncorrelated ways, which improves risk diversification. The problem can be efficiently solved using a Trie-based MaxXor algorithm in ð‘‚(ð‘) time instead of ð‘‚(ð‘2) brute force.
Here is an example for the above problem. For all those who didn't have patience for my childish play to produce proper code for lite-c, I promise you my childish play is improving very fast :
Code
#define INT_BITS 32
#define MAX_ASSETS 1000
typedef struct TrieNode {
struct TrieNode* bit[2];
} TrieNode;
// Dynamically Allocate Trie Nodes
TrieNode* newTrieNode() {
TrieNode* newNode = (TrieNode*)malloc(sizeof(TrieNode));
if (!newNode) {
printf("\n Memory allocation failed in newTrieNode()");
return NULL;
}
newNode->bit[0] = NULL;
newNode->bit[1] = NULL;
return newNode;
}
// Free Trie Memory After Use
void freeTrie(TrieNode* root) {
if (!root) return;
freeTrie(root->bit[0]);
freeTrie(root->bit[1]);
free(root);
}
// Find the Highest Bit Position in the Dataset
int findHighestBit(int* numbers, int size) {
int highestBit = 0;
int i;
for (i = 0; i < size; i++) {
int num = numbers[i];
int bitPos = 0;
while (num) {
bitPos++;
num >>= 1;
}
if (bitPos > highestBit) highestBit = bitPos;
}
return highestBit - 1; // Only use as many bits as needed
}
// Insert a Number into the Trie
void insert(TrieNode* root, int number, int highestBit) {
if (!root) {
printf("\n Error: Root is NULL in insert()! Skipping...\n");
return;
}
TrieNode* current = root;
int i;
for (i = highestBit; i >= 0; i--) {
int bit = (number >> i) & 1;
if (!current->bit[bit]) {
current->bit[bit] = newTrieNode();
if (!current->bit[bit]) {
printf("\n Error: Trie Node Creation Failed at Bit %d! Skipping...\n", i);
return;
}
}
current = current->bit[bit];
}
}
// Find the Maximum XOR for a Given Number
int findMaxXOR(TrieNode* root, int number, int highestBit) {
TrieNode* current = root;
int maxXOR = 0;
int i;
for (i = highestBit; i >= 0; i--) {
int bit = (number >> i) & 1;
if (current->bit[1 - bit]) {
maxXOR |= (1 << i);
current = current->bit[1 - bit];
} else {
current = current->bit[bit];
}
}
return maxXOR;
}
// Brute Force XOR Calculation
void maxXorBruteForce(int* assetReturns, int size) {
int maxXOR = 0, best1 = 0, best2 = 0;
int i, j;
var start = timer(); // Start Timing
for (i = 0; i < size; i++) {
for (j = i + 1; j < size; j++) {
int currentXOR = assetReturns[i] ^ assetReturns[j];
if (currentXOR > maxXOR) {
maxXOR = currentXOR;
best1 = assetReturns[i];
best2 = assetReturns[j];
}
}
}
var execTime = (timer() - start) * 1000; // End Timing
printf("\n Brute Force XOR: (%d, %d) -> XOR: %d | Time: %.3f ms", best1, best2, maxXOR, execTime);
}
// Optimized Max XOR Function (Trie)
void maxXorOptimized(int* assetReturns, int size) {
TrieNode* root = newTrieNode();
if (!root) return;
int highestBit = findHighestBit(assetReturns, size);
insert(root, assetReturns[0], highestBit);
int maxXOR = 0, best1 = 0, best2 = 0;
int i;
var start = timer(); // Start Timing
for (i = 1; i < size; i++) {
int currentXOR = findMaxXOR(root, assetReturns[i], highestBit);
if (currentXOR > maxXOR) {
maxXOR = currentXOR;
best1 = assetReturns[i];
best2 = best1 ^ maxXOR;
}
insert(root, assetReturns[i], highestBit);
}
var execTime = (timer() - start) * 1000; // End Timing
printf("\n Optimized Trie XOR: (%d, %d) -> XOR: %d | Time: %.3f ms", best1, best2, maxXOR, execTime);
freeTrie(root); // Free Memory
}
// Generate Proper Random Asset Returns
void generateRandomAssetReturns(var* assetReturns, int numAssets, int numBars) {
int i, j;
printf("\n Debugging Random Values Before Conversion:\n");
for (i = 0; i < numAssets; i++) {
vars RandomSeries = series(0); // Create a series to maintain randomness
printf("Asset %d: ", i + 1);
for (j = 0; j < numBars; j++) {
if (j == 0)
RandomSeries[j] = random(); // First value is random
else
RandomSeries[j] = RandomSeries[j - 1] + random() - 0.5; // Follow series logic
assetReturns[i * numBars + j] = RandomSeries[j]; // Store random values
printf("%.5f ", assetReturns[i * numBars + j]); // Print values for debugging
}
printf("\n");
}
}
// Convert Asset Returns to Binary Representation
int convertReturnsToBinary(var* returns, int length) {
int binaryValue = 0;
int i;
for (i = 0; i < length; i++) {
if (returns[i] > 0.05) binaryValue |= (1 << i);
else if (returns[i] < -0.05) binaryValue |= (1 << (i + length));
}
return binaryValue;
}
// Lite-C Main Function
function run() {
if (is(INITRUN)) {
int numAssets = 1000;
int numBars = 5;
int i;
int assetBinaryReturns[MAX_ASSETS];
var* assetReturns = (var*)malloc(numAssets * numBars * sizeof(var));
if (!assetReturns) {
printf("\n Memory Allocation Failed for assetReturns! Exiting...\n");
return;
}
generateRandomAssetReturns(assetReturns, numAssets, numBars);
printf("\n Debugging Binary Conversions:\n");
for (i = 0; i < numAssets; i++) {
assetBinaryReturns[i] = convertReturnsToBinary(&assetReturns[i * numBars], numBars);
printf("Asset %d Binary: %d\n", i + 1, assetBinaryReturns[i]); // Print binary values
}
// Compare Brute Force and Optimized Trie Method
maxXorBruteForce(assetBinaryReturns, numAssets);
maxXorOptimized(assetBinaryReturns, numAssets);
free(assetReturns);
}
}
For those of you who have any doubts about my progress please run the code and see the performance: (I believe that even if you had any doubts about my abilities, your doubts were a blessing in disguise for my progress and contribution to you. Thank you.
In a realm where every asset is an abstract entity, denote each asset by ð´áµ¢, where 𑖠∈ {1, 2, …, ð‘}. Each asset ð´áµ¢ possesses an intrinsic risk quantified by a parameter σᵢ². Rather than being mere numbers, these σᵢ² values embody the very essence of uncertainty, capturing the variability inherent in each asset’s behavior.
The challenge is to allocate a finite resource among these assets using weights ð‘¤áµ¢. Intuitively, assets with lower uncertainty should be favored. One natural (yet abstract) idea is to consider the “attractiveness†of an asset as inversely related to its risk—that is, proportional to 1â„σᵢ². In a simplified view, one might define the allocation by
Here, ∑ⱼ (1â„σⱼ²) represents the aggregated “stability†measure across all assets, ensuring that the ð‘¤áµ¢ sum to unity.
However, in our abstract universe the σᵢ² are not static. They fluctuate over time and may be influenced by interdependencies among assets. Let δᵢⱼ denote the interdependence (or abstract correlation) between assets ð´áµ¢ and ð´â±¼. These δᵢⱼ may alter the natural hierarchy suggested by the simple inversion 1â„σᵢ², introducing nonlinearities or “dissonances†that complicate the picture.
Your challenge is as follows:
Conceptual Reflection: Without resorting to concrete numerical examples, discuss the theoretical rationale for favoring assets with lower σᵢ² in your allocation. How does the inversion 1â„σᵢ² serve as a symbolic beacon of stability in a world of uncertainty?
Dynamic Interdependencies: Reflect on the implications of introducing δᵢⱼ into the mix. In what abstract ways might these interdependencies (δᵢⱼ ≠0) challenge the naïve allocation suggested by the pure inversion? Consider how these relationships could be integrated into the symbolic framework without losing the simplicity of the initial idea.
Towards an Adaptive Framework: Propose a conceptual framework—or a set of guiding principles—that reconciles the symbols σᵢ², 1â„σᵢ², ð‘¤áµ¢, and δᵢⱼ. How might the interplay between individual asset uncertainty (σᵢ²), its inversion, and the overall aggregation (∑) be modified to create an allocation strategy that is both resilient and adaptive in a dynamic, interdependent environment?
Philosophical and Computational Contemplation: Finally, ponder the trade-offs between the simplicity of the symbolic inversion and the complexity introduced by evolving risk interdependencies. How does this abstract approach help—or hinder—our understanding of risk management in a modern financial setting?
Your answer should weave these symbols and abstract concepts into a coherent narrative, demonstrating deep insight into both the theoretical and computational aspects of resource allocation under uncertainty.
Here we go :
Reflections on the Paradox of Uncertainty In our abstract universe of assets, where each entity ð´áµ¢ is imbued with its own mysterious risk measure, σᵢ², we find ourselves confronted with a challenge that is as much philosophical as it is computational. The proposition of allocating a finite resource via weights ð‘¤áµ¢â€”where ð‘¤áµ¢ is ideally proportional to 1â„σᵢ²—serves as a metaphor for the eternal struggle between order and chaos, stability and volatility. Yet, as we peer deeper into this symbolic landscape, we quickly discover that the seemingly simple inversion of risk is beset by twists and nuances that complicate the matter beyond mere arithmetic.
1. The Lure of the Inversion: A Beacon of Stability At first glance, the notion that an asset’s attractiveness should be proportional to 1â„σᵢ² is both elegant and seductive. In our abstract setting, each σᵢ² is more than a mere statistic—it represents the inherent uncertainty of asset ð´áµ¢. A low σᵢ² signals that ð´áµ¢ is relatively stable, a quiet harbor in the storm of market fluctuations. When we take the reciprocal, 1â„σᵢ², we transform this quiet stability into a luminous beacon, suggesting that the less erratic the asset, the more capital it deserves. The very act of inversion is symbolic: it turns the traditional fear of risk on its head, proclaiming that risk, when low, becomes a virtue to be rewarded.
In our symbolic formula, ð‘¤áµ¢ = (1â„σᵢ²) / ∑ⱼ (1â„σⱼ²), the denominator—∑ⱼ (1â„σⱼ²)—acts as an aggregator, a cosmic ledger that tallies the “stability credits†of all assets in the universe. Here, every asset’s inverted risk is pooled, and each weight ð‘¤áµ¢ is essentially a fraction of this total stability. In this sense, the inversion functions as a kind of alchemy: converting uncertainty into a measure of desirability. This transformation is our first brush with the abstract—a mechanism that, on the surface, appears to neatly order the chaotic fabric of financial markets.
2. The Dynamic Dance: When Uncertainty Pulsates Yet, as we delve deeper, the simplicity of the inversion is threatened by the restless nature of uncertainty. The σᵢ² values, far from being immutable, pulse and evolve over time. They are not isolated monoliths but are intertwined with the ebb and flow of market forces. In this dynamic environment, the very stability signaled by a low σᵢ² today may be undermined by hidden currents tomorrow.
To complicate matters further, consider the notion of interdependence, symbolized by δᵢⱼ. These terms represent the subtle, often non-linear interactions between pairs of assets ð´áµ¢ and ð´â±¼. In our idealized allocation formula, we imagine that each asset’s risk is assessed in isolation. But in the real—and abstract—world, risks do not exist in a vacuum. The fortunes of one asset can be inexplicably linked to those of another; their uncertainties may coalesce, diverge, or even counterbalance one another.
Imagine that δᵢⱼ is not zero. Instead, each pair of assets is connected by invisible threads of correlation, anti-correlation, or even some exotic non-linear relationship that defies simple categorization. The existence of these δᵢⱼ values introduces a profound twist to our original intuition. Now, the straightforward inversion 1â„σᵢ² might no longer be the best beacon of stability. For instance, an asset that appears stable in isolation (a low σᵢ²) might be entangled in a network of interdependencies that amplify its effective risk. In such a scenario, simply rewarding it with a high allocation could be akin to ignoring a hidden danger lurking beneath the surface.
Thus, the interplay between σᵢ² and δᵢⱼ forces us to confront a deeper question: How do we reconcile the raw, individual measure of uncertainty with the emergent, collective behavior that arises from interdependence? It is here that our mind must wander beyond the confines of a neat formula and embrace a more nuanced, adaptive perspective.
3. Toward an Adaptive Framework: Reconciling Symbols and Reality In light of the evolving nature of σᵢ² and the confounding effects of δᵢⱼ, one might ask: Is there a way to refine our allocation strategy so that it remains resilient amid dynamic uncertainty? One theoretical perspective is to allow the allocation weights, ð‘¤áµ¢, to be determined not by a static inversion, but by an adaptive mechanism that continuously updates in response to changing risk measures and interdependencies.
Imagine a framework where, rather than a single snapshot inversion, the allocation is derived from an iterative process. In this process, the “raw†inversion 1â„σᵢ² serves as an initial guess—a first approximation of each asset’s attractiveness. Then, through an iterative refinement procedure, the interdependencies δᵢⱼ are gradually incorporated, adjusting the weights until a balanced equilibrium is reached. In this adaptive view, ð‘¤áµ¢ is not fixed; it is a function that evolves over time, responsive to both the inherent risk of each asset and the shifting tapestry of their relationships.
Consider a metaphor: In a crowded ballroom, each dancer (asset ð´áµ¢) has a unique rhythm (σᵢ²), and their movements are subtly influenced by the proximity and motions of others (δᵢⱼ). A static allocation might assign dance partners based solely on each dancer’s individual rhythm, but true harmony is achieved only when one accounts for the interplay between dancers. The adaptive mechanism is akin to an ongoing choreography—a dynamic balancing act where each dancer adjusts their steps in response to the group, leading to a harmonious performance.
This adaptive perspective does not offer a neat, closed-form solution; rather, it invites computational exploration. Techniques such as iterative optimization, simulation-based adjustments, or even heuristic learning methods can be employed to “fine-tune†the allocations. The idea is to allow the system to evolve, to learn from the interplay between individual risk measures and interdependencies, until it settles into an equilibrium that is robust to the turbulence of uncertainty.
4. Computational Reflections: Bridging Abstraction and Practice In the realm of computational finance, the abstract ideas we have discussed must eventually be translated into algorithms that run on high-speed computers. The inversion 1â„σᵢ² is computationally trivial, but when interdependencies δᵢⱼ enter the fray, the problem quickly becomes non-linear and high-dimensional. Computational strategies such as iterative optimization and Monte Carlo simulations provide one way forward. These techniques allow us to simulate many “what if†scenarios, thereby gaining insight into how the abstract symbols—σᵢ², 1â„σᵢ², wáµ¢, δᵢⱼ—interact over time.
Imagine an algorithm that periodically re-estimates the σᵢ² values from recent market data, recalculates the raw inversions, and then adjusts the weights using a feedback loop that accounts for measured correlations (δᵢⱼ) among assets. In each iteration, the system “learns†from the market’s latest behavior, nudging the allocations toward a state where the overall portfolio risk is minimized while maintaining a healthy diversity of exposure. Such a strategy is computationally intensive, yet it reflects the true complexity of the market—an environment in which risk is a moving target and interdependencies are the norm rather than the exception.
From a computational perspective, one might also consider heuristic approaches—algorithms that do not guarantee a global optimum but can find “good enough†solutions in a reasonable time frame. These heuristics may incorporate techniques from machine learning, such as reinforcement learning, where the algorithm is rewarded for achieving a balanced portfolio over time. The key is that the algorithm learns to interpret the abstract symbols in a way that is both adaptive and resilient, even if it cannot fully eliminate the inherent uncertainty.
5. Philosophical Musings: The Trade-Off Between Simplicity and Realism At its core, the abstract inversion of risk—allocating resources in proportion to 1â„σᵢ²—offers a powerful and elegant idea. It promises simplicity: a single, transparent rule that transforms raw uncertainty into a measure of desirability. Yet, as we have seen, this simplicity is illusory in a world where uncertainty is dynamic and interdependent. The introduction of δᵢⱼ shatters the neat ordering, forcing us to acknowledge that real markets are a tangled web of correlations, contagions, and non-linear effects.
This tension between simplicity and realism is at the heart of computational finance. On one hand, simple models provide clarity and computational efficiency; they are the first stepping stones in our journey to understand market behavior. On the other hand, the very complexity of financial markets demands that we move beyond these simplified models and embrace the full spectrum of uncertainty. The challenge is to balance these opposing forces—maintaining the elegance of symbolic abstraction while not oversimplifying the reality that those symbols represent.
In a twisted sense, the elegance of the inversion formula is both its strength and its weakness. Its beauty lies in its ability to distill the multifaceted nature of risk into a single reciprocal value. However, when confronted with the messy, dynamic interplay of real-world factors, this beauty becomes a starting point rather than an end. The real challenge is to build upon this elegant core with additional layers of adaptation and feedback—essentially, to let the symbolic inversion evolve into a living system that continuously learns and adjusts.
6. Synthesis: A Harmonious, Yet Uncertain, Vision To summarize, the journey from the simple inversion 1â„σᵢ² to an adaptive allocation strategy that incorporates interdependencies (δᵢⱼ) is a voyage from abstraction to complexity—a transformation that mirrors the evolution of markets themselves. In our symbolic universe, each asset ð´áµ¢, with its risk measure σᵢ², is not an island but a node in a vast network of uncertainty. The raw inversion of risk offers an initial, illuminating insight: lower volatility should command greater allocation. Yet, the presence of nonzero δᵢⱼ introduces a twist—a reminder that the interplay of market forces is inherently non-linear and that risk, once abstracted, may reveal hidden layers of complexity.
From a computational finance perspective, this twisted vision challenges us to design algorithms that are both simple in their core idea and sophisticated in their execution. It is not enough to merely compute 1â„σᵢ² and normalize; one must also account for the evolving correlations among assets, adapt the allocations in real time, and embrace the inherent uncertainty that defies static modeling. The result is a dynamic, iterative process—a dance of numbers and symbols that seeks to reconcile the opposing forces of stability and volatility.
In our final reflection, we recognize that the true power of this symbolic framework lies not in providing definitive answers but in inspiring questions. How do we quantify uncertainty in a world that is perpetually in flux? How can we design allocation strategies that are both robust and agile, capable of withstanding the shocks of market turbulence while seizing fleeting opportunities? And, perhaps most intriguingly, can we ever capture the full complexity of financial markets within the elegant simplicity of a symbolic formula?
The answer, as in much of computational finance, is that we must always be prepared to revise our models, challenge our assumptions, and embrace the twists and turns of an unpredictable universe. The symbolic inversion of risk is a starting point—a beacon that illuminates the path forward, even as it reminds us that the journey is as important as the destination. ( It is a working code, Use it wisely, because it can change your present future... :-)
Code
#define MIN_ORDERS 5
#define MAX_ORDERS 15
#define MIN_ORDER_SIZE 5
#define MAX_ORDER_SIZE 100
#define BASE_VOLATILITY 0.09
#define MAX_DEPTH 10
#define MAX_RETURNS 10 // Track the last 10 returns
double eurusd_returns[MAX_RETURNS]; // Store past returns
int return_index = 0; // Index for updating returns
// Function to Calculate Variance of EUR/USD Returns
double calculate_variance(double* returns, int n) {
double mean = 0.0;
int i;
for (i = 0; i < n; i++) {
mean += returns[i];
}
mean /= n;
double variance = 0.0;
for (i = 0; i < n; i++) {
variance += pow(returns[i] - mean, 2);
}
return variance / n;
}
// Compute Inverse-Variance Portfolio Weight
double compute_inverse_variance_weight(double variance) {
return ifelse(variance > 0, 1.0 / variance, 1.0); // Prevent division by zero
}
// Initialize Random Seed
void initializeRandomSeed() {
seed(random() * timer());
}
// Generate Random Integer
int randomInt(int min, int max) {
return clamp(min + (int)((max - min + 1) * random()), min, max);
}
// Clamp Values to a Range
double clamp(double x, double min, double max) {
return ifelse(x < min, min, ifelse(x > max, max, x));
}
// Generate Order Size as a Random Value between MIN_ORDER_SIZE and MAX_ORDER_SIZE
int generateOrderSize(int maxSize) {
return randomInt(MIN_ORDER_SIZE, maxSize);
}
// Generate a Random Spread between 0.002 and 0.009
double updateSpread(double baseSpread, int orderIndex) {
// Directly generate a random spread within the prescribed limits.
double newSpread = 0.002 + random() * (0.009 - 0.002);
return clamp(newSpread, 0.002, 0.009);
}
// Struct for Order Book
typedef struct Order {
double price;
int size;
double spread;
int parentIndex;
} Order;
// Ensure Unique Spread by Adjusting Until Different from Previous Order
void addOrder(Order* orderBook, int index, double price, int totalOrders) {
if (index >= totalOrders)
return;
price = price + (random() * 5);
int size = generateOrderSize(MAX_ORDER_SIZE);
// Generate a random spread within 0.002 to 0.009.
double spread = 0.002 + random() * (0.009 - 0.002);
spread = clamp(spread, 0.002, 0.009);
// If there's a previous order, regenerate the spread until it differs.
if (index > 0) {
while (spread == orderBook[index - 1].spread) {
spread = 0.002 + random() * (0.009 - 0.002);
spread = clamp(spread, 0.002, 0.009);
}
}
orderBook[index].price = price;
orderBook[index].size = size;
orderBook[index].spread = spread;
orderBook[index].parentIndex = ifelse(index > 0, index - 1, -1);
print(TO_LOG, " Order Added: Index %d | Price: %.4f | Size: %d | Spread: %.5f",
index, price, size, spread);
if (random() < 0.75 && index + 1 < totalOrders) {
addOrder(orderBook, index + 1, price - 0.01 * randomInt(1, 12), totalOrders);
}
}
// Update Returns for Variance Calculation (Simulating Market Returns)
void updateReturns(double new_return) {
double randomFactor = 1 + (random() - 0.5) * 1.5; // Introduce more randomness
eurusd_returns[return_index] = new_return * randomFactor;
return_index = (return_index + 1) % MAX_RETURNS;
}
// Smart Order Selection for Market Depth
int selectRandomOrder(int totalOrders) {
int index = randomInt(0, totalOrders - 1);
return ifelse(random() < 0.3 && index > 0, index - 1, index);
}
// Main Trading Simulation with Updates to All Order Parameters
void run() {
set(LOGFILE | PLOTNOW);
Verbose = 2;
initializeRandomSeed();
int totalOrders = randomInt(MIN_ORDERS, MAX_ORDERS);
static Order orderBook[MAX_ORDERS];
int i;
// Initialize the order book with random values.
for (i = 0; i < totalOrders; i++) {
orderBook[i].price = clamp(100.0 + random() * 8, 50, 200);
orderBook[i].size = generateOrderSize(MAX_ORDER_SIZE);
orderBook[i].spread = updateSpread(0.002 + random() * 0.007, i);
orderBook[i].parentIndex = -1;
}
// Create a recursive series of orders.
addOrder(orderBook, 0, 100.00 + random() * 6, totalOrders);
vars SpreadSeries = series(0);
vars PriceSeries = series(0);
vars OrderSizeSeries = series(0);
// Update loop: re-randomize price, size, and spread for a randomly selected order.
for (i = 1; i <= MAX_DEPTH; i++) {
int orderIndex = selectRandomOrder(totalOrders);
// Update price and size randomly.
orderBook[orderIndex].price = clamp(100.0 + random() * 8, 50, 200);
orderBook[orderIndex].size = generateOrderSize(MAX_ORDER_SIZE);
// Update spread while ensuring it is different from the previous spread.
double newSpread = updateSpread(orderBook[orderIndex].spread, orderIndex);
orderBook[orderIndex].spread = newSpread;
SpreadSeries[0] = newSpread;
PriceSeries[0] = orderBook[orderIndex].price;
OrderSizeSeries[0] = orderBook[orderIndex].size;
plotBar("Spreads", i, newSpread * 10000, 1, SUM + BARS, RED);
plot("Price", PriceSeries[0], LINE, BLUE);
plotBar("Order Sizes", i, OrderSizeSeries[0], 1, SUM + BARS, GREEN);
updateReturns((random() - 0.5) * 0.005);
}
}
Puzzle: Your performance-based portfolio strategy dynamically allocates capital across 28 currency pairs based on their distance from a smoothed equity curve.
Question: If the EUR/USD component consistently outperforms all other pairs, its distance metric (dist) remains positive and high, while USD/JPY struggles with a negative distance.
The strategy caps any single component’s weight at 0.3 (30% of total capital). After several runs, the Total_Dist across all pairs is 200 and EUR/USD’s distance is 90. Can you calculate the actual capital allocation for EUR/USD, given that the total capital is $100,000?
A working code :-)
Code
// AlgoVars for component-specific parameters
#define dist AlgoVar[0]
#define component_weight AlgoVar[1]
// Global variables accessible by all components
var Total_Dist = 0;
var Max_Weight = 0.3;
void updateDist()
{
/* Calculate distance metric from equity curve */
var old_dist = dist; // Store component's previous dist value
vars EquityCurve = series(EquityLong + EquityShort); // Create component equity curve
vars EquityFilt = series(LowPass(EquityCurve, 100)); // Create component filtered equity curve
dist = (EquityCurve[0] - EquityFilt[0]) * PIP; // Calculate new dist value
if (dist <= 0)
{
if (old_dist > 0) Total_Dist = Total_Dist - old_dist;
}
else if (dist > 0)
{
if (old_dist <= 0) Total_Dist = Total_Dist + dist;
if (old_dist > 0) Total_Dist = Total_Dist - old_dist + dist;
}
// Plots
plot("Component_Eq", EquityCurve, NEW, BLUE);
plot("Filtered_Eq", EquityFilt, 0, RED);
}
void componentWeight()
{
if (dist <= 0)
{
Lots = 0.01; // Set the lot size to 0.01
Margin = 0.025 * Max_Weight * Capital;
component_weight = 0;
}
else if (dist > 0)
{
component_weight = ifelse(Total_Dist > 0, dist / Total_Dist, 0); // Prevent division by zero
if (component_weight > Max_Weight) component_weight = Max_Weight; // Limit max weight
Lots = 0.01; // Turn off phantom trading
Margin = 0.025 * component_weight * Capital; // Set margin according to weight
}
// Plots
plot("dist", dist, NEW | BARS, BLUE);
plot("Total_Dist", Total_Dist, NEW, RED);
plot("wgt", component_weight, NEW, BLACK);
}
void tradeRSI()
{
TimeFrame = 4;
vars PriceH4 = series(price());
vars Filter = series(LowPass(PriceH4, 200));
TimeFrame = 1;
vars PriceH1 = series(price());
vars rsi = series(RSI(PriceH1, 14));
int overbought = optimize(70, 60, 90, 5);
int oversold = optimize(30, 10, 40, 5);
Stop = 4 * ATR(100);
Trail = Stop;
TakeProfit = optimize(4, 1, 12, 1) * ATR(100);
if (crossOver(rsi, overbought) && PriceH1[0] < Filter[0] && NumOpenShort == 0)
{
enterShort();
}
if (crossUnder(rsi, oversold) && PriceH1[0] > Filter[0] && NumOpenLong == 0)
{
enterLong();
}
}
void tradeDigi()
{
vars Price = series(price());
vars filter = series(Roof(Price, 50, 100));
Stop = optimize(3, 1, 6, 0.5) * ATR(100);
Trail = 0.5 * Stop;
TrailLock = 10;
TrailSpeed = 200;
if (valley(filter))
{
MaxLong = 1;
enterLong();
}
if (peak(filter))
{
MaxShort = 1;
enterShort();
}
}
function run()
{
set(TESTNOW | PLOTNOW | PARAMETERS);
StartDate = 20231231;
EndDate = 2025;
NumWFOCycles = 10;
BarPeriod = 60;
LookBack = 150;
Capital = 1000;
// Full Asset List
string My_Assets[28];
My_Assets[0] = "EUR/USD"; My_Assets[1] = "GBP/USD"; My_Assets[2] = "USD/JPY";
My_Assets[3] = "USD/CHF"; My_Assets[4] = "USD/CAD"; My_Assets[5] = "AUD/USD";
My_Assets[6] = "NZD/USD"; My_Assets[7] = "EUR/GBP"; My_Assets[8] = "EUR/JPY";
My_Assets[9] = "EUR/CHF"; My_Assets[10] = "GBP/JPY"; My_Assets[11] = "GBP/CHF";
My_Assets[12] = "AUD/JPY"; My_Assets[13] = "AUD/CHF"; My_Assets[14] = "NZD/JPY";
My_Assets[15] = "NZD/CHF"; My_Assets[16] = "CAD/JPY"; My_Assets[17] = "CAD/CHF";
My_Assets[18] = "CHF/JPY";
My_Assets[19] = "EUR/AUD"; My_Assets[20] = "EUR/NZD"; My_Assets[21] = "EUR/CAD";
My_Assets[22] = "GBP/AUD"; My_Assets[23] = "GBP/NZD"; My_Assets[24] = "GBP/CAD";
My_Assets[25] = "AUD/NZD"; My_Assets[26] = "GBP/CHF"; My_Assets[27] ="NZD/CAD";
string My_Algos[2];
My_Algos[0] = "rsi";
My_Algos[1] = "digi";
// Update dist metric and Total_Dist for all components
int i, j;
for (i = 0; i < 28; i++)
{
for (j = 0; j < 2; j++)
{
asset(My_Assets[i]);
algo(My_Algos[j]);
updateDist();
}
}
// Update component weights and trade
while (asset(loop(
"EUR/USD", "GBP/USD", "USD/JPY", "USD/CHF", "USD/CAD", "AUD/USD", "NZD/USD",
"EUR/GBP", "EUR/JPY", "EUR/CHF", "GBP/JPY", "GBP/CHF", "AUD/JPY", "AUD/CHF", "GBP/CHF", "NZD/CAD",
"NZD/JPY", "NZD/CHF", "CAD/JPY", "CAD/CHF", "CHF/JPY",
"EUR/AUD", "EUR/NZD", "EUR/CAD", "GBP/AUD", "GBP/NZD", "GBP/CAD", "AUD/NZD")))
{
while (algo(loop("rsi", "digi")))
{
componentWeight();
if (Algo == "rsi") tradeRSI();
else if (Algo == "digi") tradeDigi();
}
}
PlotWidth = 600;
PlotHeight1 = 400;
}
(It is quite hard to develop strategies with higher complexities, when documentation of parameters and flags are limited in how they are to be used. It would be quite an advantage to extend the manual of Zorro Trader to include detailed information for the use of parameters.) While it is possible to use a dynamic threshold for a more sophisticated strategy :
Code
#define dist AlgoVar[0]
#define component_weight AlgoVar[1] // Each pair-algo has its own weight stored in AlgoVar
var Total_Dist = 0;
var Max_Weight = 0.3;
var MLsignals[8];
#define condition1 MLsignals[0]
#define condition2 MLsignals[1]
#define condition3 MLsignals[2]
#define condition4 MLsignals[3]
#define condition5 MLsignals[4]
#define component_weight_signal MLsignals[5]
#define dynamicThreshold_RSI MLsignals[6]
#define dynamicThreshold_Digi MLsignals[7]
var totalWeight = 0; // Global to store total weights
void updateDist() {
vars EquityCurve = series(EquityLong + EquityShort);
vars EquityFilt = series(LowPass(EquityCurve, 100));
dist = (EquityCurve[0] - EquityFilt[0]) * PIP;
vars rsiSeries = series(RSI(series(price()), 14));
vars atrSeries = series(ATR(100));
condition1 = rsiSeries[0];
condition2 = atrSeries[0];
condition3 = EquityCurve[0];
condition4 = EquityFilt[0];
condition5 = dist;
component_weight_signal = component_weight;
if (dist > 0) Total_Dist += dist;
}
void componentWeight() {
if (dist <= 0) {
component_weight = 0;
} else {
component_weight = ifelse(Total_Dist > 0, dist / Total_Dist, 0);
if (component_weight > Max_Weight) component_weight = Max_Weight;
var perceptronOutput = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 2, MLsignals, 8);
if (perceptronOutput > 0) {
Margin = 0.025 * component_weight * Capital * (1 + perceptronOutput / 100);
} else {
Margin = 0.025 * component_weight * Capital * (1 + perceptronOutput / 200);
}
}
totalWeight += component_weight; // Accumulate total weight during the loop
plot("dist", dist, NEW | BARS, BLUE);
plot("wgt", component_weight, NEW, BLACK);
}
void tradeRSI() {
vars PriceH4 = series(price());
vars Filter = series(LowPass(PriceH4, 200));
vars PriceH1 = series(price());
vars rsi = series(RSI(PriceH1, 14));
var Objective = priceClose(0) - priceClose(5);
if (adviseLong(DTREE+RETURNS, Objective, MLsignals, 5) > dynamicThreshold_RSI && PriceH1[0] > Filter[0])
enterLong();
if (adviseShort(DTREE+RETURNS, Objective, MLsignals, 5) > dynamicThreshold_RSI && PriceH1[0] < Filter[0])
enterShort();
}
void tradeDigi() {
vars Price = series(price());
vars filter = series(Roof(Price, 50, 100));
var Objective = priceClose(0) - priceClose(5);
if (valley(filter) && adviseLong(PATTERN+RETURNS, Objective, MLsignals, 5) > dynamicThreshold_Digi)
enterLong();
if (peak(filter) && adviseShort(PATTERN+RETURNS, Objective, MLsignals, 5) > dynamicThreshold_Digi)
enterShort();
}
function run() {
set(PARAMETERS | RULES | PLOTNOW | TESTNOW);
StartDate = 20231231;
EndDate = 2025;
NumWFOCycles = 10;
BarPeriod = 60;
LookBack = 150;
Capital = 1000;
while (asset(loop(
"EUR/USD", "GBP/USD", "USD/JPY", "USD/CHF", "USD/CAD", "AUD/USD", "NZD/USD",
"EUR/GBP", "EUR/JPY", "EUR/CHF", "GBP/JPY", "GBP/CHF", "AUD/JPY", "AUD/CHF", "GBP/CHF", "NZD/CAD",
"NZD/JPY", "NZD/CHF", "CAD/JPY", "CAD/CHF", "CHF/JPY",
"EUR/AUD", "EUR/NZD", "EUR/CAD", "GBP/AUD", "GBP/NZD", "GBP/CAD", "AUD/NZD")))
{
while (algo(loop("rsi","digi"))) {
updateDist();
componentWeight();
if (Algo == "rsi") tradeRSI();
else if (Algo == "digi") tradeDigi();
}
}
// Normalize weights after all pairs and algos are processed
while (asset(loop(
"EUR/USD", "GBP/USD", "USD/JPY", "USD/CHF", "USD/CAD", "AUD/USD", "NZD/USD",
"EUR/GBP", "EUR/JPY", "EUR/CHF", "GBP/JPY", "GBP/CHF", "AUD/JPY", "AUD/CHF", "GBP/CHF", "NZD/CAD",
"NZD/JPY", "NZD/CHF", "CAD/JPY", "CAD/CHF", "CHF/JPY",
"EUR/AUD", "EUR/NZD", "EUR/CAD", "GBP/AUD", "GBP/NZD", "GBP/CAD", "AUD/NZD")))
{
while (algo(loop("rsi","digi"))) {
component_weight = component_weight / totalWeight; // Normalize
plot(strf("Weight_%s_%s", Asset, Algo), component_weight, NEW, RED);
}
}
PlotWidth = 600;
PlotHeight1 = 400;
}
The Tale of the Five Guardians and the Perceptron Oracle
In the bustling metropolis of Zorropolis, where digital assets danced in the ever-changing winds of the market, a young trader named Ava sought the secret to consistent fortune. Many had tried and failed, lost in the noise of random market movements. But Ava was different. She believed in logic, precision, and—most importantly—machine learning.
Ava had heard whispers of the ancient Perceptron Oracle, a mystical force known for its unparalleled predictions. But to summon the Oracle, one needed to gather the wisdom of the Five Guardians of the Market. Each guardian held a vital piece of the market puzzle, and together, they could unlock the Oracle’s true potential.
The Guardians:
The Saucer Sage – A sharp-eyed seer who noticed when trends gently shifted gears, like a saucer smoothly turning. The Zero Line Nomad – A wanderer who lived on the line between profit and loss, signaling when it was time to cross to the winning side. The Valley Whisperer – A quiet guide who knew when the market had sunk to its lowest point, whispering, “Now is the time to rise.†The Divergence Shaman – An enigmatic figure who could spot when prices and momentum drifted apart, revealing hidden opportunities. The Trend Warden – A steadfast guardian who ensured that Ava only traded when the trend and momentum agreed, warning against false hopes. Ava ventured through the digital plains, seeking each guardian and gathering their signals—like ancient runes carved into her MLsignals tablet. Each guardian offered a signal, but Ava knew that not all signals were created equal. She had to decide which wisdom mattered most.
But how?
She had heard tales of failed traders who tried to guess these weights manually, only to be consumed by the market’s volatility.
Ava needed the Oracle.
At the heart of Zorropolis, she placed the signals into the hands of the Perceptron Oracle, whispering, “Guide me.â€
The Oracle, an ancient machine learning entity, processed the signals, calculating the perfect balance—assigning dynamic weights to each guardian's wisdom. With each passing trade, the Oracle learned, adapting to the ever-shifting market winds.
And so, Ava’s strategy was born:
Signals from the Five Guardians combined into a single weighted force. The Perceptron Oracle dynamically adjusted these weights, ensuring Ava’s trades were always aligned with the market’s pulse. Ava’s digital ship sailed smoothly through the market’s waves, entering trades when the Oracle foresaw profit, and retreating when danger loomed. In the end, Ava didn’t just find fortune—she found balance, with a strategy as elegant as a puzzle perfectly solved. (please keep in mind, that the sharing of the code is to inspire your mind, and find ideas to build probabilistic state machines which will turn your dreams into reality, But be aware, that the code will not produce for you millions. :-)
Code
var MLsignals[7]; // Additional signal for threshold learning
#define condition1 MLsignals[0]
#define condition2 MLsignals[1]
#define condition3 MLsignals[2]
#define condition4 MLsignals[3]
#define condition5 MLsignals[4]
#define threshold MLsignals[5] // Dynamic threshold
#define finalOutput MLsignals[6] // Final Perceptron output
var MLp[5]; // Individual Perceptron outputs
function run()
{
set(PARAMETERS|RULES); // Enable parameter optimization, training, and rule generation
StartDate = 20220101; // Start date for training
EndDate = 20250101; // End date for training
NumWFOCycles = 10; // Walk-Forward Optimization cycles
BarPeriod = 5; // Bar timeframe in minutes
LookBack = 200; // Lookback period for indicators
Capital = 1000; // Initial capital
vars MedianPrice = series((priceHigh() + priceLow()) / 2);
vars AO = series(SMA(MedianPrice, 5) - SMA(MedianPrice, 34)); // Awesome Oscillator
vars RSI = series(RSI(series(priceClose()), 14)); // RSI Indicator
while (asset(loop(
"EUR/USD", "GBP/USD", "USD/JPY", "USD/CHF", "USD/CAD", "AUD/USD", "NZD/USD",
"EUR/GBP", "EUR/JPY", "EUR/CHF", "GBP/JPY", "GBP/CHF", "AUD/JPY", "AUD/CHF", "GBP/CHF", "NZD/CAD",
"NZD/JPY", "NZD/CHF", "CAD/JPY", "CAD/CHF", "CHF/JPY", "EUR/AUD", "EUR/NZD",
"EUR/CAD", "GBP/AUD", "GBP/NZD", "GBP/CAD", "AUD/NZD")))
{
// Define machine learning input conditions
condition1 = ifelse(AO[2] < AO[1] && AO[1] < AO[0], 1, 0);
condition2 = ifelse(crossOver(AO, 0), 1, 0);
condition3 = ifelse(valley(AO), 1, 0);
condition4 = ifelse(priceClose(1) > priceClose(2) && AO[1] < AO[2], 1, 0);
condition5 = ifelse(AO[0] > 0 && RSI[0] > 50, 1, 0);
// Train individual Perceptrons for each condition
MLp[0] = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 0, &condition1, 1);
MLp[1] = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 0, &condition2, 1);
MLp[2] = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 0, &condition3, 1);
MLp[3] = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 0, &condition4, 1);
MLp[4] = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 0, &condition5, 1);
// Train Perceptron to find the optimal threshold dynamically
threshold = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 0, MLp, 5);
// Final Perceptron for the trading decision
finalOutput = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 0, MLp, 5);
// Trading logic with dynamically learned threshold
if (finalOutput > threshold) {
enterLong();
} else if (finalOutput < -threshold) {
enterShort();
}
}
// Plot indicators and results
plot("AO", AO, NEW, BLUE);
plot("RSI", RSI, NEW, RED);
plot("Threshold", threshold, NEW, GREEN);
plot("FinalOutput", finalOutput, NEW, BLACK);
}
Converting a list of files with high volume, to *.t6 files:
Code
#define NUM_PAIRS 28 // Number of currency pairs
#define NUM_TIMEFRAMES 2 // Number of timeframes to process
// Arrays to store the currency pairs and timeframes
string Pairs[NUM_PAIRS];
string Timeframes[NUM_TIMEFRAMES];
/*
* Format string for parsing CSV data.
* The '+' indicates the CSV file has a header line to skip.
* %Y - Year (4 digits)
* %m - Month (2 digits)
* %d - Day (2 digits)
* %H - Hour (2 digits, 24-hour format)
* %M - Minute (2 digits)
* %f3 - Open price (floating point with 3 decimals)
* %f1 - High price (floating point with 1 decimal)
* %f2 - Low price (floating point with 2 decimals)
* %f4 - Close price (floating point with 4 decimals)
* %f6 - Volume (floating point with 6 decimals)
*
* This must match the structure of your CSV files.
*/
string Format = "+%Y.%m.%d,%H:%M,%f3,%f1,%f2,%f4,%f6";
// Function to initialize currency pairs and timeframes
// Modify this to include/remove pairs or adjust timeframes as needed.
function initializePairsAndTimeframes() {
// Currency pairs
Pairs[0] = "EURUSD";
Pairs[1] = "GBPUSD";
Pairs[2] = "USDJPY";
Pairs[3] = "USDCHF";
Pairs[4] = "USDCAD";
Pairs[5] = "AUDUSD";
Pairs[6] = "NZDUSD";
Pairs[7] = "EURGBP";
Pairs[8] = "EURJPY";
Pairs[9] = "EURCHF";
Pairs[10] = "GBPJPY";
Pairs[11] = "GBPCHF";
Pairs[12] = "AUDJPY";
Pairs[13] = "AUDCHF";
Pairs[14] = "NZDCAD";
Pairs[15] = "NZDJPY";
Pairs[16] = "NZDCHF";
Pairs[17] = "CADJPY";
Pairs[18] = "CADCHF";
Pairs[19] = "CHFJPY";
Pairs[20] = "EURAUD";
Pairs[21] = "EURNZD";
Pairs[22] = "EURCAD";
Pairs[23] = "GBPAUD";
Pairs[24] = "GBPNZD";
Pairs[25] = "GBPCAD";
Pairs[26] = "AUDNZD";
Pairs[27] = 0; // End marker
// Timeframes in minutes (e.g., 60 = 1 hour, 240 = 4 hours)
Timeframes[0] = "60";
Timeframes[1] = "240";
}
/*
* Function to convert a CSV file to a .t6 file.
* This version splits the CSV data by year and saves each year as a separate .t6 file.
*
* Parameters:
* InName - The path and name of the input CSV file.
* Pair - The currency pair string to include in the output filename.
*
* Outputs:
* Files are saved as {CurrencyPair}_{Year}.t6, e.g., EURAUD_2025.t6
*/
function ConvertCSV(string InName, string Pair) {
int Records = dataParse(1, Format, InName); // Parse the CSV with the defined format
printf("\n%d lines read from %s", Records, InName); // Print the number of records read
if(Records) {
int i, Start = 0, Year, LastYear = 0;
for(i = 0; i < Records; i++) {
Year = ymd(dataVar(1, i, 0)) / 10000; // Extract the year from the date
if(!LastYear) LastYear = Year; // Set the first encountered year
// Handle the last record
if(i == Records - 1) {
LastYear = Year;
Year = 0;
i++;
}
// When the year changes, save the data segment to a new .t6 file
if(Year != LastYear) {
// Construct the output file name as {Pair}_{Year}.t6
string OutName = strf("C:\\Users\\**username**\\Zorro\\History\\%s_%4i.t6", Pair, LastYear);
printf("\nSaving file: %s", OutName);
dataSave(1, OutName, Start, i - Start); // Save the data segment to .t6
Start = i; // Update the start index for the next segment
LastYear = Year; // Update the current year
}
}
}
}
/*
* Main function:
* Loops through all specified currency pairs and timeframes,
* checks for CSV files in the specified directory, and converts them to .t6 files.
*/
function main() {
initializePairsAndTimeframes(); // Initialize pairs and timeframes
int p, t; // Loop counters for pairs and timeframes
// Loop through each currency pair
for(p = 0; Pairs[p]; p++) {
// Loop through each timeframe
for(t = 0; t < NUM_TIMEFRAMES; t++) {
// Construct the CSV file path dynamically
// Path: C:\Users\**username**\Zorro\History\{CurrencyPair}{Timeframe}.csv
string FileName = strf("C:\\Users\\**user//name**\\Zorro\\History\\%s%s.csv", Pairs[p], Timeframes[t]);
printf("\nChecking file: %s", FileName); // Log the file being checked
if(file_length(FileName)) { // Check if the file exists
printf("\nConverting %s...", FileName); // Log the conversion process
ConvertCSV(FileName, Pairs[p]); // Call the conversion function with the pair name
} else {
printf("\nFile not found: %s", FileName); // Log missing files
}
}
}
quit("Conversion done!"); // Exit the script when all files are processed
}
100% Kudos to this one ... enjoyed reading Awaiting more tales from Ava ... ... maybe next one will be in deepest darkness in DecisionTree Forest outside Zorropolis. I heard rumours that The Trend Warden und The Valley Whisperer meet another Guardian ... not sure, his name sounded like The Time Bender. Rumours say The Time Bender enables The Trend Warden and The Valley Whisperer to jump instantly through Timeframes, allowing them to monitor dimensionally trends and valleys ...
The Lost Computation of Zorropolis
[Re: TipmyPip]
#488617 02/19/2503:2402/19/2503:24
The Oracle’s Challenge: A Computational Puzzle The Lost Computation of Zorropolis The Perceptron Oracle, once the most advanced computational entity in Zorropolis, has stopped functioning. No one knows why.
Ava, the last known architect of its intelligence, has discovered fragments of a lost equation, scattered across the Oracle’s memory.
She has deduced that the Oracle’s intelligence was not a single function, but rather a system of interdependent computations, built upon:
✅ A state-driven structure, where information propagates through transitions. ✅ A multi-dimensional decision process, where actions affect future computations. ✅ A set of parallel functions, operating independently yet interacting dynamically. ✅ An evolving mathematical model, dependent on time and hidden governing laws.
The Oracle has given no output, because it cannot complete its missing computation.
Your mission is to restore the lost computation—to reconstruct the system so that it can once again process information and resolve to a stable final result.
1ï¸âƒ£ A Discrete State Evolution Model The Oracle does not compute a single value. It moves through a structured state space, governed by a function:
ð‘†ð‘¡+1=ð¹(ð‘†ð‘¡,ð´ð‘¡,ð‘ƒð‘¡)
Where:
ð‘†ð‘¡ represents the state at time ð‘¡. ð´ð‘¡ is an unknown action function that must be determined. ð‘ƒð‘¡ is a transition probability function, dynamically computed. ð¹ is the state evolution function, currently missing.
Your code must: 🔹 Define the possible states ð‘†. 🔹 Determine the transition conditions ð‘ƒð‘¡. 🔹 Implement the missing function ð¹ so that the Oracle moves correctly between states.
If ð¹ is incorrect, the system will never stabilize.
2ï¸âƒ£ An Action Selection Function At every iteration, the system must choose an action that affects its transition.
ð´ is the set of possible actions. ð‘…(ð‘Ž,ð‘†ð‘¡) is the reward function, currently unknown. Your code must: 🔹 Compute ð‘…(ð‘Ž,ð‘†ð‘¡) dynamically—it is not predefined. 🔹 Ensure that ð´ð‘¡ is selected optimally at each step. 🔹 Allow the system to learn from previous decisions—it must improve over time.
3ï¸âƒ£ A System of Parallel Computations The Oracle’s intelligence was once distributed across multiple computational streams running in parallel:
ð‘‚ð‘–=ðºð‘–(ð‘‹ð‘–,ð‘Šð‘–)
Where:
ð‘‚ð‘– is the output of computation ð‘–. ðºð‘– is an unknown transformation function that must be derived. ð‘‹ð‘– represents incoming signals. ð‘Šð‘– represents a set of dynamically adjusted weights.
Your code must: 🔹 Implement at least five separate computational functions. 🔹 Ensure their outputs interact to influence the final state. 🔹 Design a system where ð‘Šð‘– adapts dynamically rather than remaining static.
If the parallel computations do not align correctly, the final result will never emerge.
4ï¸âƒ£ A Continuous-Time Evolution Equation The Oracle’s memory reveals traces of a missing differential equation, governing its internal transformations:
ð‘‘ð‘ƒ/ð‘‘ð‘¡=ð‘˜ð‘ƒ(1−ð‘ƒ)
Where:
𑃠is a function representing an evolving parameter in the system. 𑘠is a hidden variable affecting system growth and decay. 𑡠represents the progression of the system over time.
Your code must: 🔹 Reconstruct the missing function ð‘ƒ. 🔹 Determine the role of 𑘠dynamically—it cannot be a static value. 🔹 Ensure that 𑃠follows a logical trajectory toward a stable solution.
5ï¸âƒ£ A Convergence Condition The Oracle will only reactivate when its computations resolve to a finite stable value.
The system must find its final state, defined as:
lim ð‘‚ð‘¡ = ð¶ ð‘¡â†’∞
Where ð¶ is an unknown numerical sequence that the Oracle is unable to compute without the missing framework.
If implemented correctly, your system will: ✅ Allow all computations to interact and evolve dynamically. ✅ Ensure the system transitions between states correctly. ✅ Solve the differential function guiding evolution. ✅ Reach a stable final state rather than looping indefinitely.
If implemented incorrectly, the system will: ⌠Loop endlessly without reaching a stable value. ⌠Terminate prematurely without solving the missing equation. ⌠Fail to compute the final output.
Your program must not directly assign a final value. The final output must emerge as a result of correct computation.
🚀 The Rules 1ï¸âƒ£ No Hardcoded Solutions – The system must compute the final result, not assign it manually. 2ï¸âƒ£ No Infinite Loops – The program must converge naturally, or the Oracle will remain broken. 3ï¸âƒ£ No Fixed Outputs – The answer must emerge dynamically through computation.
🎯 Your Task Reconstruct the missing computational framework so that the Oracle can once again complete its final computation.
The final output will appear only when: ✅ The system’s states evolve correctly. ✅ The decision-making process selects actions optimally. ✅ The parallel computations interact properly. ✅ The differential equation is solved dynamically. ✅ The system naturally converges to a final result.
Until then, the Oracle will remain silent.
The only way to solve this challenge is to build the correct system.
Are you ready?
🔥 Begin. 🔥
ⳠTime to Code Write your Lite-C solution and restore the Oracle’s missing logic.
But remember:
The answer will not reveal itself through explanation. The answer will only emerge through computation.
In financial markets, traders seek to identify trends and directional strength to optimize entry and exit points. Traditional technical indicators such as ADX (Average Directional Index) and DI+/DI- (Directional Indicators) measure trend strength but often fail to capture hidden relationships between assets or sectors.
To address this, we define a financial market as a graph ðº=(ð‘‰,ð¸), where:
Each node ð‘–∈𑉠represents a financial asset. An edge (ð‘–,ð‘—)∈ð¸ exists if asset ð‘– and asset ð‘— share a significant correlation or dependency. Each asset ð‘– is associated with a feature vector ð‘‹ð‘– consisting of ADX, DI+, and DI- values:
Problem Statement: Given a financial graph ðº=(ð‘‰,ð¸) and a set of node features ð‘‹ð‘–, how can we use information from neighboring assets to improve the predictive power of trend-following indicators and optimize trading decisions?
To solve this, we apply a Graph-Based Feature Aggregation:
where ð‘(ð‘–) represents the set of neighboring assets of node ð‘–.
The goal is to use the aggregated signals:
ð‘†=⋃ð‘–=1ð‘ð‘‹ð‘–​
as input for a Perceptron-based trading model that makes optimal trading decisions based on learned patterns in asset relationships.
Thus, we seek to:
Enhance trend-following indicators via graph-based aggregation. Improve trading signal reliability by incorporating cross-asset dependencies. Optimize trade execution using a supervised learning model. This leads to the Graph-Enhanced Directional Trading (GEDT) Strategy, which dynamically updates market trend strength across a network of assets for improved trade decision-making.
Code
#define NUM_NODES 10
#define SELECTED_NODES 5 // Select only 5 nodes for DI+/DI-
var A[NUM_NODES][NUM_NODES]; // Adjacency matrix
var Signals[20]; // Max 20 elements for Perceptron
int selectedNodes[SELECTED_NODES] = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}; // Selected nodes for DI+/DI-
void initialize_graph() {
int i, j;
// Manually define adjacency matrix
A[0][1] = 1; A[0][4] = 1;
A[1][0] = 1; A[1][2] = 1; A[1][5] = 1;
A[2][1] = 1; A[2][3] = 1; A[2][6] = 1;
A[3][2] = 1; A[3][4] = 1; A[3][7] = 1;
A[4][0] = 1; A[4][3] = 1; A[4][8] = 1;
A[5][1] = 1; A[5][6] = 1; A[5][9] = 1;
A[6][2] = 1; A[6][5] = 1; A[6][7] = 1;
A[7][3] = 1; A[7][6] = 1; A[7][8] = 1;
A[8][4] = 1; A[8][7] = 1; A[8][9] = 1;
A[9][5] = 1; A[9][8] = 1;
}
var aggregate_features(int node, vars FeatureSeries) {
var sum = 0;
int count = 0;
int j;
for (j = 0; j < NUM_NODES; j++) {
if (A[node][j] == 1) {
sum += FeatureSeries[j];
count++;
}
}
return ifelse(count > 0, sum / count, 0);
}
void run() {
set(RULES | TESTNOW);
if (is(INITRUN)) {
initialize_graph();
}
vars ADX_Feature = series(ADX(14));
vars DIPlus_Feature = series(PlusDI(14));
vars DIMinus_Feature = series(MinusDI(14));
vars Updated_ADX = series(0, NUM_NODES);
vars Updated_DIPlus = series(0, NUM_NODES);
vars Updated_DIMinus = series(0, NUM_NODES);
int layer, i;
for (layer = 0; layer < 2; layer++) {
for (i = 0; i < NUM_NODES; i++) {
Updated_ADX[i] = aggregate_features(i, ADX_Feature);
Updated_DIPlus[i] = aggregate_features(i, DIPlus_Feature);
Updated_DIMinus[i] = aggregate_features(i, DIMinus_Feature);
}
for (i = 0; i < NUM_NODES; i++) {
ADX_Feature[i] = Updated_ADX[i];
DIPlus_Feature[i] = Updated_DIPlus[i];
DIMinus_Feature[i] = Updated_DIMinus[i];
}
}
// Store ADX values from all 10 nodes
for (i = 0; i < NUM_NODES; i++) {
Signals[i] = ADX_Feature[i];
}
// Store DI+ and DI- from only SELECTED_NODES
for (i = 0; i < SELECTED_NODES; i++) {
Signals[NUM_NODES + i] = DIPlus_Feature[selectedNodes[i]];
Signals[NUM_NODES + SELECTED_NODES + i] = DIMinus_Feature[selectedNodes[i]];
}
// Train Perceptron using only 20 elements
if (adviseLong(PERCEPTRON, 0, Signals, 20) > 0)
enterLong();
if (adviseShort(PERCEPTRON, 0, Signals, 20) > 0)
enterShort();
}
Strategy: Optimal Execution of EUR/USD Orders with Market Microstructure Models
Overview This strategy employs stochastic filtering and impulse control within a Markov-modulated limit order book (LOB). It is designed for high-frequency trading (HFT) and algorithmic execution, optimizing order placement under incomplete information about market liquidity.
We assume that the EUR/USD price evolution follows a Hawkes process, where order flows influence future price movements. Liquidity is treated as a hidden Markov process, which the strategy estimates in real-time.
1. Market Model Assumptions
Price Dynamics: The EUR/USD price follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with transient and permanent market impacts. Liquidity Modeling: Hidden Markov-modulated liquidity states influence bid-ask spreads and market depth. Market Impact: A concave power-law function describes execution price impact, limiting adverse price movement from large orders. Execution Constraints: The strategy optimizes execution by deciding when and how much to trade, minimizing cost and slippage.
2. Strategy Components
2.1. Signal Generation (Regime Detection)
Use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to classify the current market regime: Regime 1 (High Liquidity): Low market impact, high order book depth. Regime 2 (Low Liquidity): High market impact, low order book depth. Compute the posterior probability of the market being in Regime 1 using Bayesian inference.
2.2. Trade Execution (Impulse Control Optimization)
The strategy solves an optimal stopping problem: If the probability of Regime 1 is high, execute a larger trade to take advantage of liquidity. If the probability of Regime 2 increases, reduce trade size to minimize market impact. Execution follows an adaptive liquidation model, using the Kushner-Stratonovich equations to update liquidity estimates.
3. Execution Algorithm
Step 1: Estimate Market Liquidity Using Filtering Observe order arrivals and price changes. Compute the expected liquidity state using a stochastic filter. If liquidity is high (Regime 1), prepare to execute larger orders.
Challenges in Developing Machine Learning-Based Algorithmic Trading Systems
Introduction The development of machine learning-driven trading systems presents a unique set of challenges, blending financial market analysis, algorithmic programming, and data-driven decision-making. While machine learning models promise improved decision-making and adaptability, the process of implementing them in a live trading environment is far from straightforward.
In this essay, we explore the key challenges that arise in projects like ours, based on our experience designing a feature-driven, self-learning trading system using a perceptron-based advisory model. These challenges fall into three broad categories:
Data Representation and Feature Engineering Machine Learning Training and Model Adaptability Financial Market Constraints and Changing Conditions This essay aims to provide insights to traders, developers, and researchers who may face similar issues when developing algorithmic trading strategies.
1. Data Representation and Feature Engineering Issues
1.1 Importance of High-Quality Features
At the core of any machine learning model is feature engineering—the process of selecting and transforming raw market data into meaningful inputs for decision-making. The better the features, the better the model’s ability to predict market movements.
In our project, we incorporated features such as:
ATR (Average True Range) to measure volatility Bid-Ask Spread to assess market liquidity Standard Deviation of Closing Prices to capture price dispersion Price Differences as a measure of momentum However, several critical problems emerged in the data representation process:
Numerical Instability & Precision Loss
Some features frequently returned zero or negative values, which disrupted the machine learning model’s ability to generalize. Rounding and scaling errors (e.g., improper use of fix0()) led to loss of precision, resulting in nearly identical feature values across different training cycles. Feature Redundancy and Lack of Variability
Some computed features did not change significantly over time, leading to a situation where the model was effectively training on static data. Without diverse and meaningful variations in input data, the machine learning model cannot detect new patterns. Feature Misalignment with Market Structure
Some features were not well-suited to certain market regimes. For instance, ATR-based volatility measures became less useful during periods of extreme liquidity shifts. Solution Strategies:
Introduce adaptive feature scaling to ensure values remain within an appropriate range. Conduct feature importance analysis to identify which variables truly impact predictions. Incorporate higher-frequency data (like order flow dynamics) to improve predictive power.
2. Challenges in Machine Learning Model Training
2.1 Model Learning Failure A fundamental issue we encountered was that our machine learning models (Perceptron and Decision Tree) failed to adjust their decision boundaries over multiple training cycles. This was evident in:
Consistently repeated model outputs after multiple cycles of training. Static probabilities for long and short signals, suggesting the model was not learning new market behaviors. Possible causes:
Training Data was Too Homogeneous
Without diverse market conditions in training data, the model struggled to learn different trading regimes. Weights Not Updating Properly
If weight adjustments remain close to zero in every cycle, the model does not actually improve with each iteration. Overuse of Fixed Normalization (fix0())
Removing decimal precision from input values likely weakened the depth of training, causing key information to be lost. Solution Strategies:
Track weight updates after each training cycle to confirm learning is happening. Introduce a rolling training window where only the most recent bars influence model updates. Replace aggressive rounding functions (fix0) with normalized feature scaling that preserves market structure.
3. Financial Market Constraints and Changing Conditions
3.1 Market Regime Shifts Financial markets are highly dynamic, meaning that patterns that existed during one period may become irrelevant later. One of our biggest challenges was that the trading model performed consistently poorly after retraining, suggesting it was not adapting to new market conditions.
Key issues:
Market Volatility and Liquidity Changes A model trained on low-volatility conditions may completely fail when a high-volatility regime emerges. Lack of Order Flow Sensitivity Our model did not include bid-ask imbalance data, which is critical for understanding short-term price movements. Decision Threshold Anomalies In multiple cases, our model produced trade thresholds of exactly zero, which resulted in no trading signals at all. Solution Strategies:
Regime detection mechanisms that identify when the market has shifted and trigger adaptive model retraining. Weighting recent price action more heavily in the learning process. Enhancing feature sets with order book and volume-related indicators.
4. Debugging and Development Roadblocks Beyond the technical issues in data and machine learning, real-world development also involves practical debugging difficulties:
Logging Issues: While we implemented logging functions, critical errors still required manual analysis of training output. Error Propagation: A single feature issue (e.g., spread miscalculation) could cascade through the entire system, corrupting multiple layers of logic. Cycle-Based Training Artifacts: Each new WFO (Walk Forward Optimization) cycle appeared to reset some learned information, introducing unexpected initialization problems. How We Are Addressing These:
More granular debugging logs that track how each feature changes per training cycle. Additional sanity checks on input data before passing it into the machine learning system. Experimenting with incremental training updates instead of full retrains per cycle. Conclusion Developing machine learning-driven trading systems is a complex challenge that requires a multi-disciplinary approach across data science, financial modeling, and software engineering.
The key lessons learned from our project include:
Feature Engineering is the Most Critical Factor
Poorly designed features will lead to poor model performance, regardless of the sophistication of the machine learning algorithms. Machine Learning Models Must Show Continuous Learning
If a model’s outputs are unchanging after multiple retrains, it is likely suffering from a lack of data diversity or improper weight updates. Financial Markets Are Non-Stationary
Models that do not adapt to changing market conditions will become obsolete quickly. For those embarking on similar projects, the key takeaway is that algorithmic trading development is an iterative process. No machine learning model will work perfectly out of the box, and extensive debugging, refinement, and real-world validation are necessary to build a robust and reliable system.
By addressing issues in feature selection, model learning dynamics, and real-world market adaptation, developers can improve their chances of creating an effective trading strategy that remains competitive in dynamic financial environments. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Potential Problems in Machine Learning-Based Trading Strategies Using Perceptron Networks Implementing a machine learning-driven trading strategy involves several potential pitfalls that can severely impact performance, especially when using Perceptron-based advisory models as seen in the given example. Below, I will walk through the major problems that may arise in this code and discuss how they could impact real-world trading. Tale of the Five Guardians
1. Data Quality and Indicator Calculation Issues
Problem 1: Feature Selection and Indicator Stability The model relies on:
Awesome Oscillator (AO) Relative Strength Index (RSI) Basic price movements (Close Prices) Potential Issue: Indicator Lag & False Signals AO is a lagging indicator (based on a 5-period and 34-period SMA) and may not respond quickly to price changes. RSI fluctuates around 50 and might not provide a strong enough signal on its own. False crossovers or valleys: When using crossOver(AO, 0) or valley(AO), false signals may occur due to noise in the data.
Example Failure Case: False Crossover
Imagine AO crosses above zero due to a small market fluctuation, but the market immediately reverses. The Perceptron treats this as a valid signal, leading to a bad trade. Mitigation Use volatility filters (e.g., ATR thresholds) to confirm signal strength. Consider momentum confirmation rules.
2. Perceptron Learning and Weight Adaptation Issues
Problem 2: Perceptron Not Learning Properly
Each MLp[x] learns to recognize a specific condition in the market. However, since conditions are binary (0 or 1), the learning process may struggle due to: Lack of meaningful variation: If most conditions stay at 0 (e.g., no crossover happens), the Perceptron doesn’t learn a useful pattern. Bias toward non-trading: If the data is imbalanced, the model might default to always predicting no trade (finalOutput = 0). Redundant learning: Since multiple Perceptrons are trained on similar conditions, the system might reinforce identical signals, reducing decision diversity.
Example Failure Case: Static Learning If condition1 (AO trend) is mostly zero in historical data, the Perceptron may never learn an edge. Over time, MLp[0] ≈ 0, meaning it contributes nothing to the final decision.
Mitigation Regularly check Perceptron weight updates. Introduce a fallback strategy for cases where MLp outputs remain static.
3. Dynamic Threshold Learning Issues Problem 3: Threshold Convergence to Zero The threshold (MLsignals[5]) is trained dynamically based on MLp outputs, but there are major risks:
If the Perceptron fails to distinguish good trades from noise, threshold will be too low, leading to random trades. If the Perceptron learns incorrect correlations, threshold may converge to zero, making every price fluctuation trigger a trade. Example Failure Case: Zero Threshold Anomaly
Code
Bar 1023: Threshold = 0.00001
Bar 1024: FinalOutput = 0.00002 → Triggers Long Entry
Bar 1025: FinalOutput = -0.00003 → Triggers Short Entry
This results in rapid overtrading and unnecessary losses.
Mitigation Implement a minimum threshold value (e.g., clamp between 5 and 95). Add a decay factor that prevents the threshold from over-adapting to noise.
4. Market Regime Sensitivity & Overfitting Risks Problem 4: Overfitting to Specific Market Conditions Since the model learns from historical patterns, it may:
Fail in new market conditions (e.g., high volatility events not seen in training). Overreact to short-term anomalies rather than real trends. Ignore macroeconomic changes (interest rate hikes, black swan events). Example Failure Case: Overfitting to One Market Condition Suppose the model trained on low-volatility data (e.g., 2019-2020 forex markets). If a high-volatility event like COVID-19 news occurs, the learned patterns may break down.
Mitigation Train with rolling windows rather than one long dataset. Include market regime filters to adjust Perceptron weights dynamically.
5. Debugging and Visibility Issues
Problem 5: Lack of Visibility on Model Predictions Without proper debugging logs, it’s difficult to know why a trade was placed. If finalOutput changes unpredictably, it's unclear which MLp[x] contributed most. Mitigation Log raw outputs for each MLp signal. Print threshold and final decision values at each step. Final Thoughts While machine learning offers great potential in trading, its implementation comes with several risks. The key takeaways from this example are:
Market indicators must be carefully chosen to avoid redundancy and noise. Perceptron training should be monitored to ensure it learns useful patterns. Threshold learning can break the system if it converges to 0 or extreme values. Market regime shifts can destroy static models, requiring adaptive learning. By identifying and mitigating these issues early, algorithmic traders can build more robust and reliable machine-learning trading strategies.
A computational finance researcher is developing a Markov Chain-based stochastic model for predicting asset transitions in an algorithmic trading system. The trader's model tracks the evolution of asset-algorithm pairs over time and records state transitions in a matrix.
Abstract Problem Definition Let ???? be a finite set of traded assets and ???? be a finite set of trading algorithms.
Each market state ???? is uniquely determined by a pair (????,????) such that:
????(????????,????????)=???????????+????
where:
???? is the index of the asset ???????? from ????,???? is the index of the algorithm ???????? from ????, ?????? is the total number of algorithms. At any given time ????, the system moves from one state to another, forming a discrete-time stochastic process represented by a transition probability matrix ????, where:
i.e., the probability of transitioning from state ???????? to state ????????.
The trader has recorded a total of ???? transitions over a period ???? and wishes to analyze various computationally intensive properties of the model.
Computational Challenge On a given trading day, the trader observes the following facts:
A total of ????=105 transitions are recorded. The most frequently visited state is ????(????????,????????), where:
???????? belongs to the top 5% of the most liquid assets. ???????? is the RSI-based strategy. The highest probability transition is from ????(????????,????????)?????(????????,????????) with a transition frequency ????.Using this data, answer the following computationally intensive questions:
Questions: 1. Eigenvalues and Steady-State Distribution The trader wants to compute the long-term stationary distribution ???? of the Markov Chain, which satisfies:
????????=???? where ???? is the left eigenvector of ???? corresponding to eigenvalue 1.
Compute ???? numerically using an eigenvalue decomposition.
2. Transition Entropy and Predictability
Define the Shannon entropy of transitions as:
????=??????,???????????????? log ?????????????
where ???????????? is the normalized transition probability.
Compute ???? and interpret whether the transitions are highly predictable (low entropy) or random (high entropy).
3. Market Regime Clustering Using the spectral properties of ????, perform clustering of market states using Laplacian eigenmaps:
????=????????? where ???? is the diagonal degree matrix.
Compute the first ???? eigenvectors of ???? and use k-means clustering to group market states into regimes.
4. Optimal Transition Path for Maximal Reward
Given a reward function ????(????????) that assigns a profit to each state, compute the optimal path through the Markov Chain that maximizes expected reward:
Solve for ????? using dynamic programming (Bellman recursion).
Bonus: Practical Implementation Implement eigenvalue decomposition numerically to find steady-state probabilities. Use Monte Carlo simulation to approximate transition entropy. Apply Laplacian spectral clustering to identify market regimes. Compute optimal trading state sequences using Markov Decision Processes (MDP).
Code
#ifndef MARKOVCHAINLIB_H
#define MARKOVCHAINLIB_H
#include <default.c> // Ensures string functions are available
#define MAX_STATES 100
// Declare the Markov Chain transition matrix
int markovChain[MAX_STATES][MAX_STATES];
// Initialize the Markov Chain matrix with zeros manually
void initMarkovChain() {
int i, j;
for(i = 0; i < MAX_STATES; i++) {
for(j = 0; j < MAX_STATES; j++) {
markovChain[i][j] = 0;
}
}
}
// Fixed: Use `strcmp()` or `==` for comparison
int findIndex(string* array, int size, string target) {
int i;
for (i = 0; i < size; i++) {
if (array[i] == target) { // Simplified comparison
return i; // Found, return index
}
}
return -1; // Not found
}
// Function to get the index of an asset
int assetIdx(string asset) {
static string assets[28];
assets[0] = "EUR/USD"; assets[1] = "GBP/USD"; assets[2] = "USD/JPY";
assets[3] = "USD/CHF"; assets[4] = "USD/CAD"; assets[5] = "AUD/USD";
assets[6] = "NZD/USD"; assets[7] = "EUR/GBP"; assets[8] = "EUR/JPY";
assets[9] = "EUR/CHF"; assets[10] = "GBP/JPY"; assets[11] = "GBP/CHF";
assets[12] = "AUD/JPY"; assets[13] = "AUD/CHF"; assets[14] = "NZD/JPY";
assets[15] = "NZD/CHF"; assets[16] = "CAD/JPY"; assets[17] = "CAD/CHF";
assets[18] = "CHF/JPY"; assets[19] = "EUR/AUD"; assets[20] = "EUR/NZD";
assets[21] = "EUR/CAD"; assets[22] = "GBP/AUD"; assets[23] = "GBP/NZD";
assets[24] = "GBP/CAD"; assets[25] = "AUD/NZD"; assets[26] = "GBP/CHF";
assets[27] = "NZD/CAD";
return findIndex(assets, 28, asset);
}
// Function to get the index of an algorithm
int algoIdx(string algo) {
static string algos[2];
algos[0] = "rsi";
algos[1] = "digi";
return findIndex(algos, 2, algo);
}
// Function to compute the state ID based on asset and algorithm
int getStateID(string asset, string algo) {
int aIdx = assetIdx(asset);
int algoIdxValue = algoIdx(algo);
if (aIdx == -1 || algoIdxValue == -1) {
return -1; // Return invalid state if either index is not found
}
return aIdx * 2 + algoIdxValue; // Multiply by 2 because we have 2 algorithms
}
// Update the Markov Chain transition count
void updateMarkovChain(int prev, int next) {
if (prev >= 0 && prev < MAX_STATES && next >= 0 && next < MAX_STATES) {
markovChain[prev][next]++;
}
}
#endif // MARKOVCHAINLIB_H
Code
#include "MarkovChainLib.h" // Include the Markov Chain logic
var MLsignals[8];
var Total_Dist = 0;
var Max_Weight = 0.3;
var totalWeight = 0;
#define dist AlgoVar[0]
#define component_weight AlgoVar[1]
void updateDist() {
vars EquityCurve = series(EquityLong + EquityShort);
vars EquityFilt = series(LowPass(EquityCurve, 100));
dist = (EquityCurve[0] - EquityFilt[0]) * PIP;
vars rsiSeries = series(RSI(series(price()), 14));
vars atrSeries = series(ATR(100));
MLsignals[0] = rsiSeries[0];
MLsignals[1] = atrSeries[0];
MLsignals[2] = EquityCurve[0];
MLsignals[3] = EquityFilt[0];
MLsignals[4] = dist;
MLsignals[5] = component_weight;
if (dist > 0) Total_Dist += dist;
}
void componentWeight() {
if (dist <= 0) {
component_weight = 0;
} else {
component_weight = ifelse(Total_Dist > 0, dist / Total_Dist, 0);
if (component_weight > Max_Weight) component_weight = Max_Weight;
var perceptronOutput = adviseLong(PERCEPTRON+RETURNS, 2, MLsignals, 8);
Margin = 0.025 * component_weight * Capital * (1 + ifelse(perceptronOutput > 0, perceptronOutput / 100, perceptronOutput / 200));
}
totalWeight += component_weight;
}
// Define the `tradeRSI()` function
void tradeRSI() {
vars RSIs = series(RSI(series(price()), 14));
if (crossOver(RSIs, 70)) {
enterShort(); // RSI crosses above 70 ? Sell
}
else if (crossUnder(RSIs, 30)) {
enterLong(); // RSI crosses below 30 ? Buy
}
}
// Define the `tradeDigi()` function
void tradeDigi() {
if (price() > SMA(series(price()), 50)) {
enterLong(); // If price is above SMA(50), enter a long trade
} else {
enterShort(); // Otherwise, enter a short trade
}
}
void run() {
set(PARAMETERS | RULES | PLOTNOW | TESTNOW);
StartDate = 20231231;
EndDate = 2025;
NumWFOCycles = 10;
BarPeriod = 60;
LookBack = 150;
Capital = 1000;
initMarkovChain();
int prevState = -1;
while (asset(loop(
"EUR/USD", "GBP/USD", "USD/JPY", "USD/CHF", "USD/CAD", "AUD/USD", "NZD/USD",
"EUR/GBP", "EUR/JPY", "EUR/CHF", "GBP/JPY", "GBP/CHF", "AUD/JPY", "AUD/CHF", "GBP/CHF", "NZD/CAD",
"NZD/JPY", "NZD/CHF", "CAD/JPY", "CAD/CHF", "CHF/JPY",
"EUR/AUD", "EUR/NZD", "EUR/CAD", "GBP/AUD", "GBP/NZD", "GBP/CAD", "AUD/NZD")))
{
while (algo(loop("rsi","digi"))) {
updateDist();
componentWeight();
int currentStateID = getStateID(Asset, Algo);
if (prevState != -1) updateMarkovChain(prevState, currentStateID);
prevState = currentStateID;
// FIXED: Replace `strxcmp()` with `strcmp()` or `==`
if (Algo == "rsi") tradeRSI();
else if (Algo == "digi") tradeDigi();
}
}
// Normalize weights after all pairs and algos are processed
while (algo(loop("rsi","digi"))) {
component_weight /= totalWeight;
plot(strf("Weight_%s_%s", Asset, Algo), component_weight, NEW, RED);
}
PlotWidth = 600;
PlotHeight1 = 400;
}