Originally Posted By: Joozey
 Quote:
Actually, this would be pointless in a way. A 'single' chance, even if it's incredibly near 1, is still no guarantee that it will actually go wrong. Especially if you consider the fact that these kind of issues are always looked upon from a certain paradigm

No, it is usefull. You can perform a risk analysis from this. If the result would be higher than, let's say, 0.0001%, then it is an unacceptable risk and the project should indeed be stopped. There is no real line to what is acceptable and not, but if 1% is not acceptable, and 0.00001% is, ánd there are only 2 results (seen what why_do represents us here), then you know the answer soon enough.


Yes, I understand that, but the actual chance itself is probably as arbitrary ( errors in the calculations are possible or a lacking x-factor) as is what people decide based upon it (the latter always being based on a certain paradigm), that's all I'm saying. It might be useful in terms of risk analysis, but basically it's just a number... the actual decisions based upon it can still be "wrong". As I said, a 0.00000001% chance still doesn't mean it won't happen, just like 0.9999999999991% doesn't mean it will happen. You can't say without doubt that it won't or will happen, that's what I've meant.

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