However more sophisticated computer simulations have been proposed to confirm or refute Fermi's paradox
All of them led to absurd results
Not absurd, merely contrived.
Bjork's simulation stated that it took 10bn years at 10% the speed of light sending out 4 probes. Let's play with just these assumptions (since they are the ones you quoted).
Now then Alberto, how does that result change if we go at 20% the speed of light (from 10bn to 5bn years?). Is there any physics that prevents this?
Or how about if we go at 90% the speed of light (from 10bn years to 1bn year). Is there any physics that prevents this?
Now let's assume we send 8 probes each time at 90% speed of light (500 million years). Is there any physics that prevents this?
Now let's assume we send 16 probes each time at 90% speed of light (250 million years). Is there any physics that prevents this?
And if we send 160 probes each time at 90% speed of light, then it would take 2.5 million years to do the same exploration. Is there any physics that prevents this?
So it's not an absurd conclusion since the assumptions were contrived to lead to a large result and I have shown that if you modify the assumptions still within the realm of physics, you can arrive at 2.5 million years to explore what before took 10 billion years.
"Even then, unless they can develop an exotic form of transport that gets them across the galaxy in two weeks it's still going to take millions of years to find us,"
Which again neither proves nor disproves anything since there HAVE been millions of years past and thus there MIGHT have been enough time even by this simulation for a civilization to reach us.
Neat computer simulation of the Drake Equation but like the equation itself, it adds nothing to the discussion one way or another.
Other opinions on the simulation are similar to mine:
http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2007/01/bjorks-colonization-simulation-does-not.htmlHis analysis, however, fails to take into account the likely nature of intergalactic exploration and colonization. In Bjork's simulation, he tracks the progress of a mere 72 probes. Given this ludicrously limited strategy, it would take these 8 primary probes and 64 sub-probes 100,000 years to explore a region of space containing 40,000 stars. Such an effort would almost certainly be considered futile by any civilization, and it's doubtful any ETI would embark on such a project.
Only 72 probes in 10 billion years... not the smartest of aliens...
