No, you don't have to consider the order of the balls. As I said, you always need Laplace propabilities, and this way you don't get them.

You can arbirarily say that one ball is the "first ball" and the other is the "second ball" (because those are only names). So you have a 100% propability that the "first ball" is red because you already know it's red and a 50% propability that the "second ball" is also red. So you have a 50% propability of having two red balls.



Or let me put it in this way: What if I tell you, there is a ball and it has a 50% propability of being red. Now imagine I tell you there is an other ball that is certainly red and tell you that both balls form a pair. Would you say the propability of this ball being red decreased to 33.3%?