Thanks for explaining that. It makes sense.

I did not state that correctly above when I said "I want to look at the most realistic outcome" -- my actual feeling is more like this:

I want to look at a statistically probable outcome that is heavily pessimistically skewed, about 95%. That way, I am setting my expectations in a very conservative way. It will also highlight problems quicker if my real-life outcome is not at least as profitable on average.